Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
A unique situation in my 20 odd years of fandom; a game I desperately want us to lose but am afraid we wont be able to. I'm not sure how often the confluence of the footballing god's could possibly create such a situation.
A win for Wednesday at lunchtime puts all the pressure on Derby; they would have to win at Swansea (who, lord knows, can he relied on to undeservedly beat us but not to do so against anyone else we need them to beat). A win for forest and Derby are effectively safe at lunchtime, barring an increasingly unlikely three game winning run for Rotherham.
It's unfair, in that Derby will know what they need to do. That said, so do Wednesday.
Forest must send a full side to Hillsborough and take this game seriously. A bit of experimenting is acceptable, but it's up to us to make sure we uphold the integrity of the division. It's also important that, wanting to lose aside, we put in a performance for fans; season tickets went on sale the other day. Something of a vacuous offer, to spend £400 on a ticket we have no idea whether we would be able to use and for a product that I doubt any of us would remotely want to be "entertained" by on this season's evidence.
However, we all know what will happen; we'll do our bit and lose; Swansea will field a weakened side and throw their game. Rooney will do all the interviews triumphant as having "saved" Derby.
Wednesday - strengths, style of play
Unfortunately, Wednesday are shite. They have some great players and on their day can be excellent. But their day comes very rarely and the six point deduction has weighed heavily.
They do not dominate possession (averaging 46% which is really low). They have a very small shots per game rate of 9 (we manage 11.4, which is average; our problem is that those shots all go wide or are daisy cutters). That said, they have actually managed one more goal scored than us.
Their pass completion is more that of a long ball team at 70% and their defence is poor but not atrocious; 58 goals conceded is nowhere near the worst and is fairly on par for the relegation fight (our 43 is very much the outlier).
Fortunately for our ambitions, we are shite at set pieces, we are shite at taking the lead and utterly appalling at getting into dangerous areas. We also have plenty of players who like to needlessly dawdle on the ball, so to maximise Wednesday's advantage here we should definately be playing Knockaert.
They like to attack down the right, so feels like today is a good day for Bong's unique style of welcoming defending.
Formation and players
Wednesday tend towards 3 at the back. There have been many different formations but most amount to 3-4-3. This is what they played last week
Josh Windass is their top scorer with 9 (can you imagine a player with nearly double figures) and key player overall with 5 assists as well. Definately the one to watch, he plays across the attack and midfield but has been most effective as a number 10 or on the left of a front three. He has a brilliant cross on him.
Callum Paterson is another winger-cum-striker who actually can play anywhere, even right back. He has 7 goals and 3 assists. Big lad, Scottish, has a bit of the Kenny Burns about him.
I always fear Jordan Rhodes. He has 7, mostly from the bench. You have to build the side around him and have two up top for him to work, but he loves scoring against us so let's hope he plays.
On the wing in one capacity is likely to be Adam Reach, another traditional tormentor of Forest who kind of plays the wingback role. 5 goals and 3 assists shows his success.
Barry Bannen remains one of the best players in the division on his day in central midfield, and is Wednesday's highest rated player over the season by a mile (at 6.88, which is nothing special- for comparison Cyrus Christie has a fractionally higher rating). Bannon has 5 assists to his name and also loves playing us.
We might see Kadeem Harris as well, who is one of their other key assist makers.
Funnily enough, in our squad you can't discern any key players at all. Assist and goals are spread very evenly (and sparsely) across the squad.
Form
Unfortunately, their form is horrific and, deduction or not, they deserve to be in trouble.
3 wins in 16 games, all against reasonable but not amazing sides. They've had their share of tough games but have not made the most of the easier ones.
In fairness, they haven't had any games as easy as playing Nottingham Forest right at this moment.
On form against us we are on more fertile ground for a loss too; Wednesday have won 9 of the last 15 games between the two sides (stretching to 2015) and losing just two.
Weather
It will be another cold and cloudy 8°c in Sheffield today, for what I suspect will be our last trip to Hillsborough for a year or two.
Prediction
I want us to lose only if Swansea do their job, and the problem is, I don't think they will. I think if we win, Derby will relax and lose. If we lose, Derby will win against a disinterested Swansea
A win for Wednesday at lunchtime puts all the pressure on Derby; they would have to win at Swansea (who, lord knows, can he relied on to undeservedly beat us but not to do so against anyone else we need them to beat). A win for forest and Derby are effectively safe at lunchtime, barring an increasingly unlikely three game winning run for Rotherham.
It's unfair, in that Derby will know what they need to do. That said, so do Wednesday.
Forest must send a full side to Hillsborough and take this game seriously. A bit of experimenting is acceptable, but it's up to us to make sure we uphold the integrity of the division. It's also important that, wanting to lose aside, we put in a performance for fans; season tickets went on sale the other day. Something of a vacuous offer, to spend £400 on a ticket we have no idea whether we would be able to use and for a product that I doubt any of us would remotely want to be "entertained" by on this season's evidence.
However, we all know what will happen; we'll do our bit and lose; Swansea will field a weakened side and throw their game. Rooney will do all the interviews triumphant as having "saved" Derby.
Wednesday - strengths, style of play
Unfortunately, Wednesday are shite. They have some great players and on their day can be excellent. But their day comes very rarely and the six point deduction has weighed heavily.
They do not dominate possession (averaging 46% which is really low). They have a very small shots per game rate of 9 (we manage 11.4, which is average; our problem is that those shots all go wide or are daisy cutters). That said, they have actually managed one more goal scored than us.
Their pass completion is more that of a long ball team at 70% and their defence is poor but not atrocious; 58 goals conceded is nowhere near the worst and is fairly on par for the relegation fight (our 43 is very much the outlier).
Fortunately for our ambitions, we are shite at set pieces, we are shite at taking the lead and utterly appalling at getting into dangerous areas. We also have plenty of players who like to needlessly dawdle on the ball, so to maximise Wednesday's advantage here we should definately be playing Knockaert.
They like to attack down the right, so feels like today is a good day for Bong's unique style of welcoming defending.
Formation and players
Wednesday tend towards 3 at the back. There have been many different formations but most amount to 3-4-3. This is what they played last week
Josh Windass is their top scorer with 9 (can you imagine a player with nearly double figures) and key player overall with 5 assists as well. Definately the one to watch, he plays across the attack and midfield but has been most effective as a number 10 or on the left of a front three. He has a brilliant cross on him.
Callum Paterson is another winger-cum-striker who actually can play anywhere, even right back. He has 7 goals and 3 assists. Big lad, Scottish, has a bit of the Kenny Burns about him.
I always fear Jordan Rhodes. He has 7, mostly from the bench. You have to build the side around him and have two up top for him to work, but he loves scoring against us so let's hope he plays.
On the wing in one capacity is likely to be Adam Reach, another traditional tormentor of Forest who kind of plays the wingback role. 5 goals and 3 assists shows his success.
Barry Bannen remains one of the best players in the division on his day in central midfield, and is Wednesday's highest rated player over the season by a mile (at 6.88, which is nothing special- for comparison Cyrus Christie has a fractionally higher rating). Bannon has 5 assists to his name and also loves playing us.
We might see Kadeem Harris as well, who is one of their other key assist makers.
Funnily enough, in our squad you can't discern any key players at all. Assist and goals are spread very evenly (and sparsely) across the squad.
Form
Unfortunately, their form is horrific and, deduction or not, they deserve to be in trouble.
3 wins in 16 games, all against reasonable but not amazing sides. They've had their share of tough games but have not made the most of the easier ones.
In fairness, they haven't had any games as easy as playing Nottingham Forest right at this moment.
On form against us we are on more fertile ground for a loss too; Wednesday have won 9 of the last 15 games between the two sides (stretching to 2015) and losing just two.
Weather
It will be another cold and cloudy 8°c in Sheffield today, for what I suspect will be our last trip to Hillsborough for a year or two.
Prediction
I want us to lose only if Swansea do their job, and the problem is, I don't think they will. I think if we win, Derby will relax and lose. If we lose, Derby will win against a disinterested Swansea
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