Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
Preamble- I promise this will be less controversial than a Boris Johnson Telegraph article
To be honest, I'm struggling to say anything new here. I spoke twice last year about how I quite like Reading and find their fans nice people. We have all talked to death about the positives and negatives of the new look forward team.
Did any of you know that Reading's ground was built on an old landfill site? Hence why one of their old fanzines was called "the whiff"?
I suppose I could fill this space with something outrageously racist in a pale immitation of Donald Trump; but if I did that I might find myself seriously in the running for the leadership of the Tory party, and who the fuck wants that (except Mr Alex Boris Johnson of course)?
Reading's Style
Reading mostly play a 4231, doing so 21 times last season and at home to Derby last week.
They have had relatively few squad changes from last season so we should have a reasonable idea what to expect. Against Derby they were good at winning the ball and could counter well. In the first half they were in control, admittedly against a very poor Derby showing.
However, they tired so easily. They were and are very prone to individual errors, something they did a lot last season. Both Derby goals were handed to Reading on a player- a poor goalkeeping error and a defender missing a header. This is something we can exploit.
However, Derby won because they took those chances. Would forest? I suspect we would have scored the first Derby goal and probably have missed the second, and that is what we need to work on.
Reading will play with width, with plenty coming through their left side (either Aluko or Barrow, both of whom caused Derby problems). They looked like they like to counter attack to me, showing a combination of getting the ball forward quickly with longballs or utilising pace on the wings to put in a cross or use a through ball.
Our Fullbacks are poor defensively. Barrow and Aluko will have been watching videos of Osborn and Darikwa all week, will know exactly where they are most error prone and will have been coached to exploit our weakness there. We will need Dawson or Hefele in there for some height, because there will be crosses coming into that box. But we also need someone quick and nimble to shut out the through balls.
We are far better than Reading. Looking at their players I really don't see much there. I'm not sure there are any Reading players who would get into this forest team (even the Fullbacks!). I really cannot forsee Reading bossing the game, dominating possession and winning by 2-3 goals deservedly. This is the SBC, it might happen. But I don't see a squad that is likely to do that.
Instead, I strongly suspect that Reading will have have identified the flanks as our weakness and will be aware that our defence reacts like vampires to crosses. They will seek to exploit the fullbacks, get crosses and through balls in, get the first goal and then park the bus, kill the game and frustrate. They will have some confidence that we can burn ourselves out and spend a whole game missing the target.
I honestly see this as their only real route to victory. It could work. While we struggle to score more than a goal a game teams like Reading will always be in the game. But a timely goal from us could end all of that.
Players- attack
Reading have an array of strikers available, few of whom particularly scare me.
Probably the best of them is Sam Baldock. He once had a very promising career at Franchise FC. He was pretty prolific in L1 which got him a move to West Ham in the Championship. He has been with Bristol and Brighton since then. All indications are that he is a L1 striker. He has never been prolific at this level, his best seasons being 11 and 10 goals. Now 29, it seems a bit late for him to suddenly become amazing.
The punt this season is Mark McNulty, who we all remember playing well for Coventry against the Mags in the L2 playoffs. However, he is about to turn 26 and his goalscoring record even in L1 is poor. He has never played at this level and it doesn't seem an especially great punt. We'll see.
The one who started on Friday is Jon Bodvarsson. He's more of a winger than a striker and has never scored double figures anywhere, ever. Icelandic obviously and came to England via Wolves. At 6ft 2 he has some height and scored 7 last season. They also have Meite, who is so good they sent him to Ligue 2 and he managed 2 goals in 31.
They have nothing up front to worry us. Their strikers are capable but not deadly. If we screw up they will happily help themselves to a goal and exploit our incompetence, but their records suggest they are unlikely to tear us apart on their own.
I have already mentioned Barrow and Aluko. Modou Barrow briefly came to us on loan I believe; he is still young at 25 and is a very strong dribbler. However, his crossing is very inconsistent and his passing can be poor (only 50% success on Friday, which is shocking even for a winger). He has only had one season where he has played a lot of games- last season, 37 games and 10 goals for Reading, so he is effective if a bit inexperienced.
Sone Aluko is a real counter attack threat. He joined from Fulham last year and scored 3 goals and 4 assists- not particularly eyebrow raising, compared to the 8 goals and 10 assists for Fulham the season before. In other words, this guy has pedigree and can be amazing- but the effect of his ability is less in a poor Reading side. Watch for him trying to cut inside and taking long shots.
Players- Defence
The attackers are protected by two defensive midfielders in the David Meyler (the old hand) and Liam Kelly (the young apprentice). David Meyler has signed from Hull, where he has played 15-25 games a season for years. He is particularly strong in the air. Liam Kelly is 22 and from their academy. He looks a player- very strong at taking set pieces, great defensively but also with a good number of key passes. He makes up for what Meyler can't do in passing, but is weaker in the air.
Reading have just signed John O'Shea from Sunderland. He used to be good but is now aiming for his third successive relegation. He was an unused sub for Derby so I don't know if he will go into the team for us or not. He is tall, experienced... And 37.
If he doesn't play then I assume it will be the same defence of McShane and Llori
Paul McShane is the defensive leader. He is an excellent interceptor who has good instincts. He also brings the ball out of defence well. He's on the short side though and weak into he air. Tiago Llori be at home here as he is a young Portuguese player. He is a better tackler than McShane but despite being taller is just as weak in the air.
Their Fullbacks are passable. Vito Mannone should be a good keeper but was dreadful against Derby.
Altogether, this won't be the hard slog to unlock a defence that West Brom was. These guys are error prone, have significant weaknesses and lack confidence. We have to make sure we play in such a manner that they stay that way.
I think a 'bigger' club will go down again this year and I fancy either Reading or QPR to be that club. Their squad just doesn't look quality and I still have big question marks over the manager
Form
Reading had a bloody awful pre season, winning only a very early game against QPR. They lost most of the others on top of horrendous form last season than somehow saw them bang in trouble long after we were safe. They got to the playoff final the season before, but that in itself was an oddity- I saw more than one journalist comment that they had not met anyone who had seen Reading play well (they were absolutely destroyed by us 3-0 and that was when we were in trouble).
This fixture tends to go to the home side. WE have lost 3 of the last 5, but all of those have been at the Madejski. We drew at the CG last year but should have won. We haven't lost at home to these since 2013 under Davies, where we lost 3-2 in a game that was not as close as the scoreline sounds.
We do tend to score against Reading as well- they have kept one clean sheet against us in the last ten meetings. They are also poor away- they haven't scored in their last 4 away games, with only one shot on target across all of them.
Official Vatican Prediction
Infogol really don't like forest (their prediction for us is 16th this season and their analyst is dismissive, clearly thinking we are shit), but even they give us a 55% chance of winning compared to 21% for Reading. If you are betting, the money should be on at least one of the teams to not score.
The angels have congregated, the Cherubim and Seraphim have whispered and the see if St Peter and the Bishop of Rome calls this a fairly comfortable win for Forest.
Weather Report
A pleasant, slightly cloudy 21°c with a nice, cool, 11mph breeze. Watch out for Sunday though! Apparently Saturday night onwards we'll be getting ten hours of rain. Handy for my new lawn.
Inspirational picture
Easy one this.
The club have posted on twitter a video of the reactions of the forest bench to some of our missed chances. It's fair to say it matters to them. A lot. Especially Dawson.
Link to the tweet and video here
To be honest, I'm struggling to say anything new here. I spoke twice last year about how I quite like Reading and find their fans nice people. We have all talked to death about the positives and negatives of the new look forward team.
Did any of you know that Reading's ground was built on an old landfill site? Hence why one of their old fanzines was called "the whiff"?
I suppose I could fill this space with something outrageously racist in a pale immitation of Donald Trump; but if I did that I might find myself seriously in the running for the leadership of the Tory party, and who the fuck wants that (except Mr Alex Boris Johnson of course)?
Reading's Style
Reading mostly play a 4231, doing so 21 times last season and at home to Derby last week.
They have had relatively few squad changes from last season so we should have a reasonable idea what to expect. Against Derby they were good at winning the ball and could counter well. In the first half they were in control, admittedly against a very poor Derby showing.
However, they tired so easily. They were and are very prone to individual errors, something they did a lot last season. Both Derby goals were handed to Reading on a player- a poor goalkeeping error and a defender missing a header. This is something we can exploit.
However, Derby won because they took those chances. Would forest? I suspect we would have scored the first Derby goal and probably have missed the second, and that is what we need to work on.
Reading will play with width, with plenty coming through their left side (either Aluko or Barrow, both of whom caused Derby problems). They looked like they like to counter attack to me, showing a combination of getting the ball forward quickly with longballs or utilising pace on the wings to put in a cross or use a through ball.
Our Fullbacks are poor defensively. Barrow and Aluko will have been watching videos of Osborn and Darikwa all week, will know exactly where they are most error prone and will have been coached to exploit our weakness there. We will need Dawson or Hefele in there for some height, because there will be crosses coming into that box. But we also need someone quick and nimble to shut out the through balls.
We are far better than Reading. Looking at their players I really don't see much there. I'm not sure there are any Reading players who would get into this forest team (even the Fullbacks!). I really cannot forsee Reading bossing the game, dominating possession and winning by 2-3 goals deservedly. This is the SBC, it might happen. But I don't see a squad that is likely to do that.
Instead, I strongly suspect that Reading will have have identified the flanks as our weakness and will be aware that our defence reacts like vampires to crosses. They will seek to exploit the fullbacks, get crosses and through balls in, get the first goal and then park the bus, kill the game and frustrate. They will have some confidence that we can burn ourselves out and spend a whole game missing the target.
I honestly see this as their only real route to victory. It could work. While we struggle to score more than a goal a game teams like Reading will always be in the game. But a timely goal from us could end all of that.
Players- attack
Reading have an array of strikers available, few of whom particularly scare me.
Probably the best of them is Sam Baldock. He once had a very promising career at Franchise FC. He was pretty prolific in L1 which got him a move to West Ham in the Championship. He has been with Bristol and Brighton since then. All indications are that he is a L1 striker. He has never been prolific at this level, his best seasons being 11 and 10 goals. Now 29, it seems a bit late for him to suddenly become amazing.
The punt this season is Mark McNulty, who we all remember playing well for Coventry against the Mags in the L2 playoffs. However, he is about to turn 26 and his goalscoring record even in L1 is poor. He has never played at this level and it doesn't seem an especially great punt. We'll see.
The one who started on Friday is Jon Bodvarsson. He's more of a winger than a striker and has never scored double figures anywhere, ever. Icelandic obviously and came to England via Wolves. At 6ft 2 he has some height and scored 7 last season. They also have Meite, who is so good they sent him to Ligue 2 and he managed 2 goals in 31.
They have nothing up front to worry us. Their strikers are capable but not deadly. If we screw up they will happily help themselves to a goal and exploit our incompetence, but their records suggest they are unlikely to tear us apart on their own.
I have already mentioned Barrow and Aluko. Modou Barrow briefly came to us on loan I believe; he is still young at 25 and is a very strong dribbler. However, his crossing is very inconsistent and his passing can be poor (only 50% success on Friday, which is shocking even for a winger). He has only had one season where he has played a lot of games- last season, 37 games and 10 goals for Reading, so he is effective if a bit inexperienced.
Sone Aluko is a real counter attack threat. He joined from Fulham last year and scored 3 goals and 4 assists- not particularly eyebrow raising, compared to the 8 goals and 10 assists for Fulham the season before. In other words, this guy has pedigree and can be amazing- but the effect of his ability is less in a poor Reading side. Watch for him trying to cut inside and taking long shots.
Players- Defence
The attackers are protected by two defensive midfielders in the David Meyler (the old hand) and Liam Kelly (the young apprentice). David Meyler has signed from Hull, where he has played 15-25 games a season for years. He is particularly strong in the air. Liam Kelly is 22 and from their academy. He looks a player- very strong at taking set pieces, great defensively but also with a good number of key passes. He makes up for what Meyler can't do in passing, but is weaker in the air.
Reading have just signed John O'Shea from Sunderland. He used to be good but is now aiming for his third successive relegation. He was an unused sub for Derby so I don't know if he will go into the team for us or not. He is tall, experienced... And 37.
If he doesn't play then I assume it will be the same defence of McShane and Llori
Paul McShane is the defensive leader. He is an excellent interceptor who has good instincts. He also brings the ball out of defence well. He's on the short side though and weak into he air. Tiago Llori be at home here as he is a young Portuguese player. He is a better tackler than McShane but despite being taller is just as weak in the air.
Their Fullbacks are passable. Vito Mannone should be a good keeper but was dreadful against Derby.
Altogether, this won't be the hard slog to unlock a defence that West Brom was. These guys are error prone, have significant weaknesses and lack confidence. We have to make sure we play in such a manner that they stay that way.
I think a 'bigger' club will go down again this year and I fancy either Reading or QPR to be that club. Their squad just doesn't look quality and I still have big question marks over the manager
Form
Reading had a bloody awful pre season, winning only a very early game against QPR. They lost most of the others on top of horrendous form last season than somehow saw them bang in trouble long after we were safe. They got to the playoff final the season before, but that in itself was an oddity- I saw more than one journalist comment that they had not met anyone who had seen Reading play well (they were absolutely destroyed by us 3-0 and that was when we were in trouble).
This fixture tends to go to the home side. WE have lost 3 of the last 5, but all of those have been at the Madejski. We drew at the CG last year but should have won. We haven't lost at home to these since 2013 under Davies, where we lost 3-2 in a game that was not as close as the scoreline sounds.
We do tend to score against Reading as well- they have kept one clean sheet against us in the last ten meetings. They are also poor away- they haven't scored in their last 4 away games, with only one shot on target across all of them.
Official Vatican Prediction
Infogol really don't like forest (their prediction for us is 16th this season and their analyst is dismissive, clearly thinking we are shit), but even they give us a 55% chance of winning compared to 21% for Reading. If you are betting, the money should be on at least one of the teams to not score.
The angels have congregated, the Cherubim and Seraphim have whispered and the see if St Peter and the Bishop of Rome calls this a fairly comfortable win for Forest.
Weather Report
A pleasant, slightly cloudy 21°c with a nice, cool, 11mph breeze. Watch out for Sunday though! Apparently Saturday night onwards we'll be getting ten hours of rain. Handy for my new lawn.
Inspirational picture
Easy one this.
The club have posted on twitter a video of the reactions of the forest bench to some of our missed chances. It's fair to say it matters to them. A lot. Especially Dawson.
Link to the tweet and video here
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