Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
Preamble (strictly my own thoughts. If you don't want to read my thoughts, or are too much of a snowflake to handle reading opinions different to your own then you are invited to skip to the next section)
So, this is it.
Another season done. Another season in which we watch three other teams celebrate wildly, while another three experience the joys of hope and and the agony of failure. Another season where we look at who has been promoted from L1 and think "FFS, why do we have to play that bunch of wankers again" (doubly so with Blackburn and Wigan returning). Another season where our consolation has been to look behind us at three teams suffering a worse fate than mediocrity.
We've had a particularly bad one. Surviving relegation last season saw us still manage far more enjoyable games than this season. I personally have probably seen two enjoyable games per manager with Arsenal sandwiched inbetween, compared with quite a few last season. We at least have the consolation of being Wenger's last FA cup opponents.
We will finish on more points and higher in the table but it hasn't really been progress. However, It feels like there is at least the potential for progress next season. But when hasn't it felt like that?
We'll say goodbye to some players tomorrow; Cohen, Hobbs and Vaughan for a start. They won't be the only ones and I wouldn't be surprised to see a clear out like January. Those players depart from a club that seems to have only the vaguest idea what it wants to do and chaotic notions of how to get there. It is a club that for years has counted success not as getting closer to our goal but by avoiding getting further away.
So as we conclude our 20th (I believe) season out of the top flight and watch astronomical sums being spent by other clubs this summer, we can't help but wonder; will it really be different next year?
Oh, and Brexit is shit.
Teams
Bristol are remarkably similar to ourselves actually. They play attacking, possession football. They favour shorter passes but can mix it up when the game demands. They average around the same possession as us (53%), the same shots per game (12.7) and are just a bit shy of our passing accuracy at 73% to 78% (I read the other day that the worst passing accuracy in the entire PL is West Brom- with 84%. That's better than pretty much anyone in the championship).
There are two big differences between us and them; they can finish and they can head the ball- possibly both at the same time (we have only scored two headers all season, probably the lowest in the Football League). Bristol have 65 goals to our 49, and that pretty much explains why they are battling for the playoffs and we are celebrating safety with a few games to go.
They can probably defend corners and free kicks a bit too.
Bristol will play 4-4-2, a rarity these days (although they occasionally switch to 4-1-4-1 away) and attack through the middle. They will keep the ball well and seek to get it to Diedhiou, who is a classic support striker who wins the headers and knock downs for Bobby Reid.
They are excellent at finishing their chances and have a really good record of recovering from losing positions. As with most teams in this league, they are far better than us in the air, winning 27 aerial duels per game to our 19 (which is improving from the 16 it was a few months ago).
How do we beat them then?
Well, they aren't that special to be honest. They are a very decent side who manage to put pretty much the same side out where week. They play good but not outstanding football and take a lot of their chances. Their form is shite and has been for months, which has seen them drop from the promotion picture out of the playoffs.
They are weak at set pieces, but that isn't where we'll get them because we are shite at scoring them. But crucially, they are susceptible to moments of individual skill and this is where Cash, Lolley and tonlin, returning to his old club, could have real fun.
Players
This section is simple as there are only two main players to talk about; Bristol are all about Bobby Reid and Famara Diedhiou.
Reid currently has 19 goals, a total bottom forest player has got near since 2003, as well as 7 assists. Diedhiou has 13 goals and 2 assists.
They are a classic old style strike partnership; Reid is the light, nippy, technically brilliant little bloke who catches teams on the break and things on providing as well as running on to through balls. As a natural winger playing as striker you can see that trickery coming though.
Diedhiou on the other hand is the battering ram; 6ft2, wins as many headers per game as Fox and with 13 goals he is the £5m striker they bought to replace Tammy Abraham who they had on loan last year. These are probably the best (and possibly the only) striker partnership in the division and I'm sure they'll give Mancienne something if a stronger test than Barnsley.
In midfield we will face the hot and cold phenomenon that is Jamie Paterson. He has done well at Bristol, scoring 5 and assisting 8 goals from the left wing if the 4-4-2.
On the right wing is Josh Brownhill, a defensive midfielder by trade who also has 5 goals from the wing with 5 assists. He has been virtually ever present (40 games), although this is not unusual; Bristol have 5 players who have played more than 40 matches and 7 who have done more than 35. They are probably the most settled side in the division, whereas we have a single player who has managed 40 games: I bet people can guess who that is.
Marlon Pack and Corey Smith complete centre midfield, with Pack having 5 goals.
Every member of their defence has played more than 33 games this season, with Bryan (left back) their most highly rated player on 49 games. Adam Flint, their centre half is one of those that has been knocking around the division for ages and he and Nathan Baker win a massive 5.4 headers per game, far higher than any forest player.
Form
Their form is dogshit for a playoff chasing side. In the 6 game form table they are one place below us. In the ten game table they are one place above us. That they are anywhere near us shows how shite they have been.
They have one win and three defeats in six, that win being against Birmingham. They have lost at home to Brentford (we sympathise), 2-0 away at Millwall (ditto) and away at Middlesborough. Just like with style, their form is so like ours it is almost like they are our twin (with us as the evil twin, obviously).
Boxing day was great for Bristol. It was their 6th win in 7 games, with one of those knocking man utd out of the cup. They were flying high. It's been down hill from there: they lost 5 in a row and have won only four times since then. They are now five points from the playoffs with 6 points to play for.
But they keep beating us. They have won 5 of the last six against us, with us beating them last season in a game I honestly can't remember. Karanka also has a shit personal record against Bristol.
However, they don't score that often at the CG. They don't do that well away at all actually- Stoke are the only team in the pro leagues with a longer winless run away than Bristol (now 11 games for our opponents).
Official Vatican Prediction
BBC say 34% home win and 38% away win. But Bristol don't really win away.
5 points adrift and I don't see their players believing they'll have much chance. This will be an end of season game where both teams can piss about all they want (Bristol drew 5-5 at the weekend).
I'm going for an entertaining victory followed by defeat at Bolton to a stupid set piece.
Weather
Its going to be cold and rainy. 7°c with high chance of showers. Stewards will totally misinterpret the mood as they are ordered to put up the pathetic red tape to stop the fans coming on to a pitch we have no intention of sharing with this underachieving lot.
Inspirational Picture
Chris Cohen. 11 years here and a great servant to this club despite the injuries, which it is worth pointing out were suffered for us on the pitch. He has given us his career, as well as so many great performances. I thank him particularly for the superb third goal at West Brom and the crucial second against Ipswich last season.
A great bloke, a great player and a great servant to the club. Who is going to tell us that each new manager is the best the players have ever worked with now?
Also a shout out to Hobbs and Vaughan, but for circumstances and service the day belongs to Chris Cohen. Where is his testimonial?
So, this is it.
Another season done. Another season in which we watch three other teams celebrate wildly, while another three experience the joys of hope and and the agony of failure. Another season where we look at who has been promoted from L1 and think "FFS, why do we have to play that bunch of wankers again" (doubly so with Blackburn and Wigan returning). Another season where our consolation has been to look behind us at three teams suffering a worse fate than mediocrity.
We've had a particularly bad one. Surviving relegation last season saw us still manage far more enjoyable games than this season. I personally have probably seen two enjoyable games per manager with Arsenal sandwiched inbetween, compared with quite a few last season. We at least have the consolation of being Wenger's last FA cup opponents.
We will finish on more points and higher in the table but it hasn't really been progress. However, It feels like there is at least the potential for progress next season. But when hasn't it felt like that?
We'll say goodbye to some players tomorrow; Cohen, Hobbs and Vaughan for a start. They won't be the only ones and I wouldn't be surprised to see a clear out like January. Those players depart from a club that seems to have only the vaguest idea what it wants to do and chaotic notions of how to get there. It is a club that for years has counted success not as getting closer to our goal but by avoiding getting further away.
So as we conclude our 20th (I believe) season out of the top flight and watch astronomical sums being spent by other clubs this summer, we can't help but wonder; will it really be different next year?
Oh, and Brexit is shit.
Teams
Bristol are remarkably similar to ourselves actually. They play attacking, possession football. They favour shorter passes but can mix it up when the game demands. They average around the same possession as us (53%), the same shots per game (12.7) and are just a bit shy of our passing accuracy at 73% to 78% (I read the other day that the worst passing accuracy in the entire PL is West Brom- with 84%. That's better than pretty much anyone in the championship).
There are two big differences between us and them; they can finish and they can head the ball- possibly both at the same time (we have only scored two headers all season, probably the lowest in the Football League). Bristol have 65 goals to our 49, and that pretty much explains why they are battling for the playoffs and we are celebrating safety with a few games to go.
They can probably defend corners and free kicks a bit too.
Bristol will play 4-4-2, a rarity these days (although they occasionally switch to 4-1-4-1 away) and attack through the middle. They will keep the ball well and seek to get it to Diedhiou, who is a classic support striker who wins the headers and knock downs for Bobby Reid.
They are excellent at finishing their chances and have a really good record of recovering from losing positions. As with most teams in this league, they are far better than us in the air, winning 27 aerial duels per game to our 19 (which is improving from the 16 it was a few months ago).
How do we beat them then?
Well, they aren't that special to be honest. They are a very decent side who manage to put pretty much the same side out where week. They play good but not outstanding football and take a lot of their chances. Their form is shite and has been for months, which has seen them drop from the promotion picture out of the playoffs.
They are weak at set pieces, but that isn't where we'll get them because we are shite at scoring them. But crucially, they are susceptible to moments of individual skill and this is where Cash, Lolley and tonlin, returning to his old club, could have real fun.
Players
This section is simple as there are only two main players to talk about; Bristol are all about Bobby Reid and Famara Diedhiou.
Reid currently has 19 goals, a total bottom forest player has got near since 2003, as well as 7 assists. Diedhiou has 13 goals and 2 assists.
They are a classic old style strike partnership; Reid is the light, nippy, technically brilliant little bloke who catches teams on the break and things on providing as well as running on to through balls. As a natural winger playing as striker you can see that trickery coming though.
Diedhiou on the other hand is the battering ram; 6ft2, wins as many headers per game as Fox and with 13 goals he is the £5m striker they bought to replace Tammy Abraham who they had on loan last year. These are probably the best (and possibly the only) striker partnership in the division and I'm sure they'll give Mancienne something if a stronger test than Barnsley.
In midfield we will face the hot and cold phenomenon that is Jamie Paterson. He has done well at Bristol, scoring 5 and assisting 8 goals from the left wing if the 4-4-2.
On the right wing is Josh Brownhill, a defensive midfielder by trade who also has 5 goals from the wing with 5 assists. He has been virtually ever present (40 games), although this is not unusual; Bristol have 5 players who have played more than 40 matches and 7 who have done more than 35. They are probably the most settled side in the division, whereas we have a single player who has managed 40 games: I bet people can guess who that is.
Marlon Pack and Corey Smith complete centre midfield, with Pack having 5 goals.
Every member of their defence has played more than 33 games this season, with Bryan (left back) their most highly rated player on 49 games. Adam Flint, their centre half is one of those that has been knocking around the division for ages and he and Nathan Baker win a massive 5.4 headers per game, far higher than any forest player.
Form
Their form is dogshit for a playoff chasing side. In the 6 game form table they are one place below us. In the ten game table they are one place above us. That they are anywhere near us shows how shite they have been.
They have one win and three defeats in six, that win being against Birmingham. They have lost at home to Brentford (we sympathise), 2-0 away at Millwall (ditto) and away at Middlesborough. Just like with style, their form is so like ours it is almost like they are our twin (with us as the evil twin, obviously).
Boxing day was great for Bristol. It was their 6th win in 7 games, with one of those knocking man utd out of the cup. They were flying high. It's been down hill from there: they lost 5 in a row and have won only four times since then. They are now five points from the playoffs with 6 points to play for.
But they keep beating us. They have won 5 of the last six against us, with us beating them last season in a game I honestly can't remember. Karanka also has a shit personal record against Bristol.
However, they don't score that often at the CG. They don't do that well away at all actually- Stoke are the only team in the pro leagues with a longer winless run away than Bristol (now 11 games for our opponents).
Official Vatican Prediction
BBC say 34% home win and 38% away win. But Bristol don't really win away.
5 points adrift and I don't see their players believing they'll have much chance. This will be an end of season game where both teams can piss about all they want (Bristol drew 5-5 at the weekend).
I'm going for an entertaining victory followed by defeat at Bolton to a stupid set piece.
Weather
Its going to be cold and rainy. 7°c with high chance of showers. Stewards will totally misinterpret the mood as they are ordered to put up the pathetic red tape to stop the fans coming on to a pitch we have no intention of sharing with this underachieving lot.
Inspirational Picture
Chris Cohen. 11 years here and a great servant to this club despite the injuries, which it is worth pointing out were suffered for us on the pitch. He has given us his career, as well as so many great performances. I thank him particularly for the superb third goal at West Brom and the crucial second against Ipswich last season.
A great bloke, a great player and a great servant to the club. Who is going to tell us that each new manager is the best the players have ever worked with now?
Also a shout out to Hobbs and Vaughan, but for circumstances and service the day belongs to Chris Cohen. Where is his testimonial?
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