Pope John XXIII
Vital Football Legend
Preamble- my own personal thoughts, recommended to skim or skip
So that was it then. The big kickoff, and we got an away point. We apparently should have won, given that we are 'big spending' forest but at least we now have opposition managers making the excuse that we are absolutely brilliant for them not having held a lead, rather than accusing us of luck.
While the media continue to wank over Leeds and prematurely ejacalate over Frank Lampard winning the division in his first game, forest continue to be labelled as 'big spending'. I was amused to see Bristol's manager saying this, despite his club having spent more gross and about the same net as we have over the last 4 years. By comparison, Derby have spent £75 million in four seasons (including this summer), compared to our £38m. They have recouped about £35m of that, while we have sold £45m of talent- and this is post Lascelles/Darlow.
Similarly, we are presented as 'big spending even compared to West Brom. The baggies have spent a paltry £9.5m this summer (which itself would dwarf our spending in any summer this century). Last season they spent an eye watering £53m. Yes, that is in the premiership. I don't care- those players are still largely there and their 'minor' budget this summer comes on the back of around £120m of investment in the previous three summers. To add to that, they have just signed Dwight Gayle on loan.
We have spent close to £30m and this is just to get us in the same vague bracket as the top clubs. Yet what I love about this division is that you can be an Ipswich, Millwall etc, spend bugger all and still be competitive.
Style
Amusingly, whoscored list West Brom as having no significant strengths. This is still from last season however, and it is difficult to guage them so far.
Darren Moore plays a 4-4-1-1 and seems to be pretty rigid in that, deploying it against Bolton and in most of the games at the end of the PL season.
They are poor at protecting a lead though and are really bad at fouling in dangerous areas. If we had someone who could take a free kick we could really exploit that, because I suspect we could win a few.
Whether they are a possession team is hard to say. They had nearly 75% possession against Bolton, but Wanderers are not exactly a side well known for their desire to touch the football more than is absolutely necessary. In the PL they invariably had far less possession, with the last match where they had the majority coming on 7th April against Swansea.
The fact that in their two matches against similar or inferior opposition they have had more possession suggests to me they will try to dominate when they can.
Team- attack
They play two up front, one withdrawn. The withdrawn one will be Jay Rodriguez, who some of us remember tearing a second arsehole out of a very raw debutant Jamaal Lascelles back in the dark Cotterill days. This guy is probably too good for the Championship and is someone I would rather not face. Burnley want him but nice things cost money and they don't want to spend what it will take.
Robson-Kanu played up front on Saturday but the main striker role will almost certainly go to Dwight Gayle, newly signed on loan. We might be lucky and find him on the bench, but how often are we lucky?
Other dangermen are Matt Phillips on the right wing. We know him from his QPR days- an excellent crosser and set piece taker. He's another one that I would rather not face. However, I suspect the feeling is mutual. He was utterly dogshit on saturday according to whoscored, with only Robson-Kanu performing worse. I wonder if he is openly aiming for that move away? Newcastle and Boro are apparently interested.
With Phillips performing poorly it possibly opens the door to a young 21 year old right winger to come into the side- a lad by the name of Oliver Burke. He knows his way around the City ground and has already said he won't be celebrating if he scores.
On Saturday they played a lad called Harvey Barnes on the left wing, who is 20 and looks ok. He performed extremely well on Saturday in a poor team, likes a long shot but is quite easy to knock off the ball.
But the one I wouldn't want to see is Nacer Chadli. You might remember him as the one who scored the winning goal for Belgium against Japan at the World Cup. He was plagued by injuries last season, making only 216 minutes of Premier League football. He hasn't been sold yet but was not in the squad on Saturday, so hopefully we'll avoid that one.
Team- defence
West Brom play with a box to box player and a defensive midfielder. The aging Chris Brunt seems to perform the box to box role. He is an amazing crosser of the ball with great delivery at set pieces. He is a premier league class player with the kind of talent that doesn't fade with age, even if he won't get round the pitch like he once did.
In defensive midfield they have Jake Livermore, who was average last season and poor on Saturday.
In defence, Craig Dawson remains in exile, demanding a move, which means that new signing Kyle Bartley takes his place. Bartley has hardly played in recent seasons, doing 45 games at Leeds on loan the season before last, but only two starts last season. He had a reasonable debut, winning loads in the air. Alongside him sits Kieran Gibbs at LB, who must look at where he is and wonder what went wrong, and Ahmed Hegazi, an excellent centre back who was one of the few to emerge with credit from their relegation.
West Brom have some good players. But their squad is small, their formation rigid and their attack is based on a few Billy big bollocks players, most of whom are hoping not to be there by Friday. Both Phillips and Rodriguez, two of their big stars hope to secure moves away. They might see a good performance against us as a potential catalyst for those moves- or, more likely they don't give a crap and are aiming to avoid injury.
Certainly West Brom players wanted to play the game on Saturday at PL pace. They didn't do the basics you need to compete at this level. We may be a lot closer to the kind of opposition they are used to, which worries me. We have quality, but we are unlikely to have too much quality for them. We need to out- championship them; be a proper, intense, hard working SBC team and exploit their lethargy and reliance on the quality of just a few individuals.
Form
They lost at home on Saturday to probably the second worst team in the division. However, their form is good.
They have won 4/5 friendlies, only drawing with Aberdeen. Those plus Barnsley away were their only 'tricky' opponents however so their friendly games tell us little. On the brink of relegation they decided to rub their fan's noses in it by suddenly starting to win games, only to go down anyway. So their form is very mixed.
Against us, they have won 5 of the last 8. We haven't had a draw in over 18 years. We have actually won 3 of the last four games, including the last two at the Hawthornes. That was last day of the season in 2004, when we pissed on their promotion party under Joe Kinnear, and of course the brilliant 3-1 in January 2010. I had the pleasure of being at both of those, as well as the more dubious 1-0 and 3-0 defeats that came before that.
Their only recent win was at the CG- and totally undeserved it was. They have actually won their last three games at the CG and Moore himself played in two of those. In the last 21 years we have only lost our first home game of the season once- that undeserved defeat to West Brom in 2009.
Official Vatican Prediction
Infogol give us a paltry 27% chance of winning this one, compared to 44% for West Brom.
I honestly have no idea. I can see us destroying them, but I can also see us being absolutely schooled. Having not seen us yet I have no idea. I'm going to go safe and say unlucky defeat.
Weather Report
A warm, slightly cloudy 22° that will feel like 24°, with a low 1005mb of pressure and 55% humidity. Should be no problem compared to Saturday.
Inspirational Picture
Plenty to choose from, but this is my favourite from probably my favourite away game ever (remember, I am 35 and my away experiences are confined to the 21st century). I love this just for the look on Raddy's face, a look that says that even he can't believe he has just scored that belter of a second goal.
People also forget the third came on the back of nine one touch passes. Incredible game.
So that was it then. The big kickoff, and we got an away point. We apparently should have won, given that we are 'big spending' forest but at least we now have opposition managers making the excuse that we are absolutely brilliant for them not having held a lead, rather than accusing us of luck.
While the media continue to wank over Leeds and prematurely ejacalate over Frank Lampard winning the division in his first game, forest continue to be labelled as 'big spending'. I was amused to see Bristol's manager saying this, despite his club having spent more gross and about the same net as we have over the last 4 years. By comparison, Derby have spent £75 million in four seasons (including this summer), compared to our £38m. They have recouped about £35m of that, while we have sold £45m of talent- and this is post Lascelles/Darlow.
Similarly, we are presented as 'big spending even compared to West Brom. The baggies have spent a paltry £9.5m this summer (which itself would dwarf our spending in any summer this century). Last season they spent an eye watering £53m. Yes, that is in the premiership. I don't care- those players are still largely there and their 'minor' budget this summer comes on the back of around £120m of investment in the previous three summers. To add to that, they have just signed Dwight Gayle on loan.
We have spent close to £30m and this is just to get us in the same vague bracket as the top clubs. Yet what I love about this division is that you can be an Ipswich, Millwall etc, spend bugger all and still be competitive.
Style
Amusingly, whoscored list West Brom as having no significant strengths. This is still from last season however, and it is difficult to guage them so far.
Darren Moore plays a 4-4-1-1 and seems to be pretty rigid in that, deploying it against Bolton and in most of the games at the end of the PL season.
They are poor at protecting a lead though and are really bad at fouling in dangerous areas. If we had someone who could take a free kick we could really exploit that, because I suspect we could win a few.
Whether they are a possession team is hard to say. They had nearly 75% possession against Bolton, but Wanderers are not exactly a side well known for their desire to touch the football more than is absolutely necessary. In the PL they invariably had far less possession, with the last match where they had the majority coming on 7th April against Swansea.
The fact that in their two matches against similar or inferior opposition they have had more possession suggests to me they will try to dominate when they can.
Team- attack
They play two up front, one withdrawn. The withdrawn one will be Jay Rodriguez, who some of us remember tearing a second arsehole out of a very raw debutant Jamaal Lascelles back in the dark Cotterill days. This guy is probably too good for the Championship and is someone I would rather not face. Burnley want him but nice things cost money and they don't want to spend what it will take.
Robson-Kanu played up front on Saturday but the main striker role will almost certainly go to Dwight Gayle, newly signed on loan. We might be lucky and find him on the bench, but how often are we lucky?
Other dangermen are Matt Phillips on the right wing. We know him from his QPR days- an excellent crosser and set piece taker. He's another one that I would rather not face. However, I suspect the feeling is mutual. He was utterly dogshit on saturday according to whoscored, with only Robson-Kanu performing worse. I wonder if he is openly aiming for that move away? Newcastle and Boro are apparently interested.
With Phillips performing poorly it possibly opens the door to a young 21 year old right winger to come into the side- a lad by the name of Oliver Burke. He knows his way around the City ground and has already said he won't be celebrating if he scores.
On Saturday they played a lad called Harvey Barnes on the left wing, who is 20 and looks ok. He performed extremely well on Saturday in a poor team, likes a long shot but is quite easy to knock off the ball.
But the one I wouldn't want to see is Nacer Chadli. You might remember him as the one who scored the winning goal for Belgium against Japan at the World Cup. He was plagued by injuries last season, making only 216 minutes of Premier League football. He hasn't been sold yet but was not in the squad on Saturday, so hopefully we'll avoid that one.
Team- defence
West Brom play with a box to box player and a defensive midfielder. The aging Chris Brunt seems to perform the box to box role. He is an amazing crosser of the ball with great delivery at set pieces. He is a premier league class player with the kind of talent that doesn't fade with age, even if he won't get round the pitch like he once did.
In defensive midfield they have Jake Livermore, who was average last season and poor on Saturday.
In defence, Craig Dawson remains in exile, demanding a move, which means that new signing Kyle Bartley takes his place. Bartley has hardly played in recent seasons, doing 45 games at Leeds on loan the season before last, but only two starts last season. He had a reasonable debut, winning loads in the air. Alongside him sits Kieran Gibbs at LB, who must look at where he is and wonder what went wrong, and Ahmed Hegazi, an excellent centre back who was one of the few to emerge with credit from their relegation.
West Brom have some good players. But their squad is small, their formation rigid and their attack is based on a few Billy big bollocks players, most of whom are hoping not to be there by Friday. Both Phillips and Rodriguez, two of their big stars hope to secure moves away. They might see a good performance against us as a potential catalyst for those moves- or, more likely they don't give a crap and are aiming to avoid injury.
Certainly West Brom players wanted to play the game on Saturday at PL pace. They didn't do the basics you need to compete at this level. We may be a lot closer to the kind of opposition they are used to, which worries me. We have quality, but we are unlikely to have too much quality for them. We need to out- championship them; be a proper, intense, hard working SBC team and exploit their lethargy and reliance on the quality of just a few individuals.
Form
They lost at home on Saturday to probably the second worst team in the division. However, their form is good.
They have won 4/5 friendlies, only drawing with Aberdeen. Those plus Barnsley away were their only 'tricky' opponents however so their friendly games tell us little. On the brink of relegation they decided to rub their fan's noses in it by suddenly starting to win games, only to go down anyway. So their form is very mixed.
Against us, they have won 5 of the last 8. We haven't had a draw in over 18 years. We have actually won 3 of the last four games, including the last two at the Hawthornes. That was last day of the season in 2004, when we pissed on their promotion party under Joe Kinnear, and of course the brilliant 3-1 in January 2010. I had the pleasure of being at both of those, as well as the more dubious 1-0 and 3-0 defeats that came before that.
Their only recent win was at the CG- and totally undeserved it was. They have actually won their last three games at the CG and Moore himself played in two of those. In the last 21 years we have only lost our first home game of the season once- that undeserved defeat to West Brom in 2009.
Official Vatican Prediction
Infogol give us a paltry 27% chance of winning this one, compared to 44% for West Brom.
I honestly have no idea. I can see us destroying them, but I can also see us being absolutely schooled. Having not seen us yet I have no idea. I'm going to go safe and say unlucky defeat.
Weather Report
A warm, slightly cloudy 22° that will feel like 24°, with a low 1005mb of pressure and 55% humidity. Should be no problem compared to Saturday.
Inspirational Picture
Plenty to choose from, but this is my favourite from probably my favourite away game ever (remember, I am 35 and my away experiences are confined to the 21st century). I love this just for the look on Raddy's face, a look that says that even he can't believe he has just scored that belter of a second goal.
People also forget the third came on the back of nine one touch passes. Incredible game.
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