Liverpool: A model to emulate | Vital Football

Liverpool: A model to emulate

muttley

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I always felt that in the summer of 2017 was our time to push on as a club after amassing 86 points in the league and finishing 2nd. It is intriguing (and disappointing) to see the fortunes of Liverpool and Spurs in that period since, but importantly have a think about what we now need to do in these next 3-5 years. We obviously didn’t push on and there is no point looking backwards and putting ourselves through that again. Instead, I thought I’d share some data on Liverpool and perhaps identify what we now need to do in these next 3-5 years to achieve the outcomes we all want. What model do we need?

The last 5 years for Liverpool under Klopp have been amazing for the fans. Starting with the 2016/17 season, we finished 10 points clear of them on 86 points. They finished 4th and made the Champion’s League places. Then they put the afterburners on.

What has happened since is transformational and once again this weekend they step out in a Champions League final, as favourites. On the positive side, I like to think we did our bit to stop them winning the league (and potential quadruple) with our result at Anfield a couple of weeks back.

So tracing it back, here’s the journey.

Liverpool squad 2016/17

Goalkeepers: Simon Mignolet, Loris Karius, Alex Manninger

Defenders: Joel Matip, Dejan Lovren, Ragnar Klavan, Mamadou Sakho, Tiago Ilori, Nathaniel Clyne (HG), James Milner (HG), Alberto Moreno

Midfielders: Emre Can, Jordan Henderson (HG), Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana (HG), Georginio Wijnaldum, Sadio Mane, Lucas Leiva, Kevin Stewart (HG),

Strikers: Daniel Sturridge (HG), Roberto Firmino, Danny Ings (HG)

Notable U21 Players: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Cameron Brannagan, Pedro Chirivella, Ovie Ejaria, Shamal George, Joe Gomez, Marko Grujic, Caoimhin Kelleher, Sheyi Ojo, Divock Origi, Connor Randall, Harry Wilson, Ben Woodburn

Trophies in last 5 years: 1 League Title, 1 Champions League, FIFA Club World Cup, FA Cup, League Cup, UEFA Super Cup

League finishes
17/18 – 4th, 75 Pts.
18/19 – 2nd, 97 Pts
19/20 – 1st, 99 Pts
20/21 – 3rd, 69 Pts
21/22 – 2nd, 92 Pts

Transfer Spend
2017/18 – In £156m, Out £166m (In: VVD, Salah, Ox, Robertson Out: Coutinho, Sakho)
2018/19 – In £164m. Out £34m (In: Allison, Keita, Fabinho Out: Solanke)
2019/20 – In £9m, Out £40m (In: Minamino Out: Ings)
2020/21 – In £74m, Out £15m (In: Jota, Thiago, Tsimikas, Out: Lovren, Llalana)
2021/22 – In £78m, Out £25m (In: Diaz, Konate Out: Wilson)

Over the 5 years, that is £481m spend on incoming players getting £280m back. So average of £40m net spending a year but lumpy because of the Coutinho exit.

There was also an interesting article a couple of months ago sharing the current “Big 6” salaries. In brackets is the same number from the 16/17 season from another older article.

Manchester City £355m (£244m)
Chelsea £333m (£256m)
Manchester United £323m (£264m)
Liverpool £314m (£200m)
Arsenal £244m (£234m)
Tottenham £205m (£120m)

For me, the final bit of the story comes with the revenues. Liverpool had £364m in 2017 and has now exceeded the half billion. Through COVID the club flatlined around £490m mostly dues to the success on the pitch. Compared to us, our revenues started at £306m in 2017 and we rose just above £400m before the impacts of COVID and no Champion’s League took us back to £360m by the 2021 accounts. So what do we conclude from this? Mostly that we can compete more than we think we can, especially now we have a fully leveraged stadium and Champs League again.

What the Fenway Sports Group (John Henry) did was put the right leadership structure around Klopp. Everything from a link-role between the US and UK to having throw-in coaches to improve the performance on the pitch. They got the recruitment right because they got the recruitment team right. They got a strong manager and they still play the same formation as they played 5 years ago. They figured out rotation and they kept their players fresh enough to play at the intensity that wins things. They clearly had the right level of depth in their squad, but only 6 or 7 of the 16/17 squad survived the journey. Klopp had great players but he never built dependency on any individuals.

So I would say that we have reasons to be optimistic. We are not yet operating at the salary levels of the others yet, but there is no reason why we can’t bridge the difference over these next couple of years. Mostly though, we need to emulate the stability in the leadership team and the execution in the transfer market. In Conte, we now have our Klopp, and he can make things happen on the pitch.

So what does everyone else think?
 
Well done Muttley. That clearly illustrates we can deliver on the pitch now with the right personnel.

In Liverpool's case they just lost their key football brain but there are high hopes for his replacement at Liverpool. It's very rarely the same when someone like that leaves. It could be better, it could be worse but it remains to be seen.

We, on the other hand, are just putting that off pitch brain trust in place. After 11 months Paratici has moved us forward dramatically but the scouting system is still heavily reliant on his previous situation. That needs to and is changing as he adds personnel. Hopefully within the next 12 months it gets filled out.

We are without question a financial powerhouse now. Not at the top but close enough to make us a danger to anyone and a destination club for players.

We need to become the "new" winning club over a period of time to cement our new position.

The back office personnel will be key to this.
 
Of course it did. It enabled them to make massive transfers in VVD and Salah.

They would have done it anyway. Fenway does not naff about when they take over.

BTW, Todd Boehly who is leading the Chelsea consortium is the same guy that approached Spurs a few years back. Oh what could have been.
 
They would have done it anyway. Fenway does not naff about when they take over.

BTW that, Boehly who is leading the Chelsea consortium is the same guy that approached Spurs a few years back. Oh what could have been.

I'm not convinced that is true. I think the countinho money was integral to their decision making.

I thought you were part of the pro-ENIC camp?
 
I'm not convinced that is true. I think the countinho money was integral to their decision making.

I thought you were part of the pro-ENIC camp?

I am neutral. Great stadium, terrible football operations until Paratici showed up. The fact that Levy finally stepped away and brought in Paratici to do the things Levy was close to useless at made me a little more amenable toward Levy. He did try a few times prior to Paratici's arrival but naffed it up.

Nobody does sport like the Americans.
 
Excellent discussion point Mutley.
For what it's worth, here's my take on it
Klopp was allowed to "fail" to a degree and I would argue that it didn't take one or two seasons to actually build a successful squad.
Some of his acquisitions,Karius, Ox Chamberlain, Solanke weren't exactly raging successes, the big issue was getting rid of the likes of Llana, Ibe, Allen, Ings, Lovern, Balotelli, Benteke.
I think that's where we are now, we're about half way through a clear out of either average players or those with a bad attitude.
We have gotten rid of around 6 between last Summer and January, for me I hope some of those loanees don't return.
There's little or no sense in going over the "over investment" in the stadium which led to our losing focus on the team, that's history, we didn't learn from "Arse" and literally did a carbon copy.
Liverpool are now collectively an ageing side and now need re addressing, but not the rebuild we require.
With that said we are well ahead of where we thought we would be at this stage, there appears to be monies to be spent, if the media reports are to be believed.
More than this, I feel we are starting to build a winning mentality or a non losing mentality, we aren't "ARSEY"
The current squad are accepting of Contes' work ethic and tactics. Given this will be his first full season with his own squad it will be interesting to see where we end up.
Already we have our first signing under our belt with, Forster, although I would've liked a younger keeper, he is a good aqusition.
We have historically been a very well run club finincially.
We appear to have gotten rid of some dross, both player and in our scouting set up.
We have a good recruitment and management in place.
So for me it's onwards and indeed upwards.
 
I'm not convinced that is true. I think the countinho money was integral to their decision making.

I thought you were part of the pro-ENIC camp?

Coutinho changed everything for them; it transformed their immeadiate finances, prior to that the owners had made it clear they'd build by 'measured' investment - the planned investment over the next three years was around £75 mill excluding stadium improvement capital.

So you can see how that one sale changed their whole outlook.
 
I always felt that in the summer of 2017 was our time to push on as a club after amassing 86 points in the league and finishing 2nd. It is intriguing (and disappointing) to see the fortunes of Liverpool and Spurs in that period since, but importantly have a think about what we now need to do in these next 3-5 years. We obviously didn’t push on and there is no point looking backwards and putting ourselves through that again. Instead, I thought I’d share some data on Liverpool and perhaps identify what we now need to do in these next 3-5 years to achieve the outcomes we all want. What model do we need?

The last 5 years for Liverpool under Klopp have been amazing for the fans. Starting with the 2016/17 season, we finished 10 points clear of them on 86 points. They finished 4th and made the Champion’s League places. Then they put the afterburners on.

What has happened since is transformational and once again this weekend they step out in a Champions League final, as favourites. On the positive side, I like to think we did our bit to stop them winning the league (and potential quadruple) with our result at Anfield a couple of weeks back.

So tracing it back, here’s the journey.

Liverpool squad 2016/17

Goalkeepers: Simon Mignolet, Loris Karius, Alex Manninger

Defenders: Joel Matip, Dejan Lovren, Ragnar Klavan, Mamadou Sakho, Tiago Ilori, Nathaniel Clyne (HG), James Milner (HG), Alberto Moreno

Midfielders: Emre Can, Jordan Henderson (HG), Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana (HG), Georginio Wijnaldum, Sadio Mane, Lucas Leiva, Kevin Stewart (HG),

Strikers: Daniel Sturridge (HG), Roberto Firmino, Danny Ings (HG)

Notable U21 Players: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Cameron Brannagan, Pedro Chirivella, Ovie Ejaria, Shamal George, Joe Gomez, Marko Grujic, Caoimhin Kelleher, Sheyi Ojo, Divock Origi, Connor Randall, Harry Wilson, Ben Woodburn

Trophies in last 5 years: 1 League Title, 1 Champions League, FIFA Club World Cup, FA Cup, League Cup, UEFA Super Cup

League finishes
17/18 – 4th, 75 Pts.
18/19 – 2nd, 97 Pts
19/20 – 1st, 99 Pts
20/21 – 3rd, 69 Pts
21/22 – 2nd, 92 Pts

Transfer Spend
2017/18 – In £156m, Out £166m (In: VVD, Salah, Ox, Robertson Out: Coutinho, Sakho)
2018/19 – In £164m. Out £34m (In: Allison, Keita, Fabinho Out: Solanke)
2019/20 – In £9m, Out £40m (In: Minamino Out: Ings)
2020/21 – In £74m, Out £15m (In: Jota, Thiago, Tsimikas, Out: Lovren, Llalana)
2021/22 – In £78m, Out £25m (In: Diaz, Konate Out: Wilson)

Over the 5 years, that is £481m spend on incoming players getting £280m back. So average of £40m net spending a year but lumpy because of the Coutinho exit.

There was also an interesting article a couple of months ago sharing the current “Big 6” salaries. In brackets is the same number from the 16/17 season from another older article.

Manchester City £355m (£244m)
Chelsea £333m (£256m)
Manchester United £323m (£264m)
Liverpool £314m (£200m)
Arsenal £244m (£234m)
Tottenham £205m (£120m)

For me, the final bit of the story comes with the revenues. Liverpool had £364m in 2017 and has now exceeded the half billion. Through COVID the club flatlined around £490m mostly dues to the success on the pitch. Compared to us, our revenues started at £306m in 2017 and we rose just above £400m before the impacts of COVID and no Champion’s League took us back to £360m by the 2021 accounts. So what do we conclude from this? Mostly that we can compete more than we think we can, especially now we have a fully leveraged stadium and Champs League again.

What the Fenway Sports Group (John Henry) did was put the right leadership structure around Klopp. Everything from a link-role between the US and UK to having throw-in coaches to improve the performance on the pitch. They got the recruitment right because they got the recruitment team right. They got a strong manager and they still play the same formation as they played 5 years ago. They figured out rotation and they kept their players fresh enough to play at the intensity that wins things. They clearly had the right level of depth in their squad, but only 6 or 7 of the 16/17 squad survived the journey. Klopp had great players but he never built dependency on any individuals.

So I would say that we have reasons to be optimistic. We are not yet operating at the salary levels of the others yet, but there is no reason why we can’t bridge the difference over these next couple of years. Mostly though, we need to emulate the stability in the leadership team and the execution in the transfer market. In Conte, we now have our Klopp, and he can make things happen on the pitch.

So what does everyone else think?

The stadium is our gamechanger; we could not compete at the highest levels without it, unless we had a sugar daddy who wanted to burn money every season - and we've never ever had that.

Levy's vision of what the stadium would do (e.g. cement us in the top echelon of football: which was always his goal).

It will take us a few years before our revenues really motor, but as he has already said a number of times; the additional stadium revenues will be used where it matters, on the pitch.

Paraticci was a very smart move, Conte just as much. Conte has bought into the vision knowing full well what he has to deliver - and over the next few seasons, that's exactly what I expect he will do.
 
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Coutinho changed everything for them; it transformed their immeadiate finances, prior to that the owners had made it clear they'd build by 'measured' investment - the planned investment over the next three years was around £75 mill excluding stadium improvement capital.

So you can see how that one sale changed their whole outlook.
Getting £140m for Coutinho was the sale of the century. The sale of any century.
 
Getting £140m for Coutinho was the sale of the century. The sale of any century.

Coutinho in 2018 was sold for £140m, we sold Bale for £85m back in 2013.

If we had the set up we have now with Paratici back in 2013 who knows where we might be.

For reference, in 2014/15 you could have bought

Oblak £12.6m
De Vrij £6.7m
Rakatic £14.2m
Carrasco £14m
Barnardo Silva £12m

We just didn’t take the same advantage that Liverpool did at the time.
 
Coutinho changed everything for them; it transformed their immeadiate finances, prior to that the owners had made it clear they'd build by 'measured' investment - the planned investment over the next three years was around £75 mill excluding stadium improvement capital.

So you can see how that one sale changed their whole outlook.

Fenway would have moved harder than that no matter what they publicly said.
 
Fenway would have moved harder than that no matter what they publicly said.

Well I have to disagree with you on this one; at the time I co-owned a racehorse with the ex-Chairman of BA; who was brought in to run the placce after Gilet and co had made such a mess of it; I saw their business plan and they widely said as much about their plans in the Athletic, off the pitch ( subscription industry mag) and Football Benchmark and last but not least Ace Advisory, who's founder did most of the leg work on the BP and advised them every step of the way.

I promise you Countinho fell in their lap - that said, smart very smart people but they knew they weren't going to break any FFPRs and said as much and at the time, without that deal would have..
 
Coutinho in 2018 was sold for £140m, we sold Bale for £85m back in 2013.

If we had the set up we have now with Paratici back in 2013 who knows where we might be.

For reference, in 2014/15 you could have bought

Oblak £12.6m
De Vrij £6.7m
Rakatic £14.2m
Carrasco £14m
Barnardo Silva £12m

We just didn’t take the same advantage that Liverpool did at the time.
Is your point that allowing for market inflation we got approximately as much for Bale as Liverpool did for Coutinho? If so, I'd disagree. Bale went on to achieve a lot more for RM than Coutinho did for Barcelona. In fact, the latter didn't even nail down a first team place. If you also factor in that forwards always a command premium over players anywhere else on the pitch and Bale was one of the hottest properties in football at that time, I'd say Liverpool got a much better deal than we did.
 
So a couple more thoughts on this.

Firstly, prior to the current regime, they got £74m for Suarez and bought about 7 players. Only about 2 of them had any real impact. Sound familiar?

Secondly, what does the Coutinho story tell us about what we could have done with Eriksen, Kane, Dele etc? I still feel that we have this fear of selling someone like Kane. I don't, as I know he's just a number, and the next part of his career could easily follow the same pattern as Coutinho with injury and form. Whereas Jose built a higher dependency on him, Conte is clearly doing the opposite.
 
Coutinho changed everything for them; it transformed their immeadiate finances, prior to that the owners had made it clear they'd build by 'measured' investment - the planned investment over the next three years was around £75 mill excluding stadium improvement capital.

So you can see how that one sale changed their whole outlook.

One can only hope this cash injection can do the same for us. I am still concerned how much will be used for player acquisitions though.
 
Well, if we can buy(sign free) 6 players like the 3 we did in January we will be away.
I doubt we will get all 6 right, doubt it has ever been done, but we can hope.