How valuable is home advantage in EPL? | Vital Football

How valuable is home advantage in EPL?

T

Thewolf/jimmygordon

Vital Football Hero
I've been looking at various stats and analysis on EPL results

To find that statistically an EPL team on average is only about 15 per cent more likely to win a home game than an away game

(There's lots of variables to discuss in amongst that and that's a simplification of the debate)

But in reality the comnents we get about these are the type of games we need to be winning at home might be a bit over done

Basically although nice to play at home it doesn't make the huge difference to your expectations of winning a game as you might think

And not something to over react to when it doesn't happen

Lesser teams come to be solid and may actually be as easy to beat away from home as when we are at home where they have to go for it more to satisfy the home fans

Anyway just thought I would post it

For now I just want us to stay unbeaten as long as possible and keep picking up points home and away
 
I am pretty confident that your stats are flawed.

Because unlike any other division, the very top teams stay in this division and generally get stronger. The gap between them and the rest tends to widen. Occasionally a new club joins them, at least for a bit.

So unlike other divisions where the top teams are promoted and therefore transitory, you have a group representing 30% or more of the division who always win A LOT of away games which skews the stats.
 
Pope John XXIII said:
I am pretty confident that your stats are flawed.

Because unlike any other division, the very top teams stay in this division and generally get stronger. The gap between them and the rest tends to widen. Occasionally a new club joins them, at least for a bit.

So unlike other divisions where the top teams are promoted and therefore transitory, you have a group representing 30% or more of the division who always win A LOT of away games which skews the stats.
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Perhaps but those top teams should also win most of their home games

Last season 44% of all EPL games ended in a home win

25% in a draw

31% in an away win

It's obviously favourable to be a home team but perhaps not as much as we imagine

Especially as we improve as a team and opponents show more respect when they play at wfcg

Other interesting stats

The top teams tend to concede more goals at home than they do away (appears to be because they play more open football and back themselves at home more to just outscore the opposition)

The bottom teams tend to score as many goals away as they do at home (put down to the fact they often set up as defensively as home as they do away) meanwhile when the bottom teams play away theres more pressure on the home team to win who play more open and give more chances etc
 
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Pope John XXIII said:
I am pretty confident that your stats are flawed.

Because unlike any other division, the very top teams stay in this division and generally get stronger. The gap between them and the rest tends to widen. Occasionally a new club joins them, at least for a bit.

So unlike other divisions where the top teams are promoted and therefore transitory, you have a group representing 30% or more of the division who always win A LOT of away games which skews the stats.
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home games also add another layer of pressure so difficult to assert too much home advantage. bin dippers a current example of where the home fans want.the manager out.
 
Well excluding all other variables, the % chance of winning any game is 33.3% with 3 possible outcomes (win/draw/loss).

I think you need to provide more context to those stats Wolf. If it's a 15% increase as in 33.3% becomes 48.3%, that's MASSIVE.

Or is it a 15% increase of the win chance - so 15% of 33.3 which becomes 38.3%? Even this way it's not an insignificant benefit.
 
For example

Those backing home teams in Premier League football betting would have had a statistical advantage in the 2022/23 season. Teams like Wolves and Nottingham Forest consistently overachieved at home (compared to their overall points accumulation), alongside the usual suspects like Liverpool and the two Manchester clubs.

Only minor gains at home

And yet, as mentioned, the advantage may be exaggerated. Arsenal, Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, and Newcastle were among the clubs who saw only minor gains overall at home. Sure, they still picked up more home points, but only marginally so. Indeed, consider that only nine teams in the 2022/23 season won more than half of their home games. They were: Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Brentford, Brighton, Tottenham, and Aston Villa. All others, including overachievers like Nottingham Forest, won less than half of their home games
 
And

The 2020/21 season saw no fewer than 11 teams win more points away than at home. Now, we must remember that many of the games were played behind closed doors that season, so the lack of fans in the stadiums will likely have led to that statistic. Nonetheless, it is amazing to note that every one of the top five that season – City, United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester – gained more points on the road.

So, overall then, it is right to make assumptions about home advantage, but there are many caveats. There are nearly always a handful of teams that will post better records on the road. Importantly, there is no set identity for a team that can do this. It could be a struggling team or a top team. So if you are backing a team with home advantage you should have confidence, but it should be tempered with the knowledge that the advantage (overall) is only marginal.
 
Brighton fans on their forum already saying that's the kind of home game they needed to be winning

Sounds familiar!

Maybe they do if it's Europe they are after
 
weejockmcplop said:
Anderson will have to step up into MGWs role, Yates and JWP in midfield.
We can still field a very strong lineup without MGW which was quite unthinkable last season.
I think Nuno's going to be the biggest miss.
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JWP has played the number 10 role a lot for previous clubs as well

Decent through balls from there from him

So could also be Yates and Anderson as 2 cdms together

Jota might want MGWs role as well?

But like you say at least we have options
 
We continue to take more points away from home than at home

And we've played so called better teams away

There was a period in the second half yesterday when every time we got the ball we looked dangerous because Man U were stretched having to put us under pressure

And we look dangerous on the break

We really should start relishing our away games for chances to win 3 points

Home games our opponents will continue to set up tighter against us

We've taken 11 points from 7 home games against lower rated teams normally

We've taken 14 points from 8 away games against higher rated teams normally

Our away fans certainly give us a huge boost away as well

No reason why away wins won't keep coming as we start playing more lower rated teams away

And I think we will see some of our better performances away
 
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Duran looked dangerous for villa yesterday. His first start upfront this season.

Man city haven't won away in 6 now I believe
 
Thewolf/jimmygordon said:
We continue to take more points away from home than at home

And we've played so called better teams away

There was a period in the second half yesterday when every time we got the ball we looked dangerous because Man U were stretched having to put us under pressure

And we look dangerous on the break

We really should start relishing our away games for chances to win 3 points

Home games our opponents will continue to set up tighter against us

We've taken 11 points from 7 home games against lower rated teams normalky

We've taken 14 points from 8 away games against higher rated teams
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It's about scoring first, or at least not conceding early.

We have lost all the games where we conceded first (there have only been three).

Arsenal and Man City all scored within 15 and that was the game gone. Our away plan is always to be tight and not concede first.

We seem more able to come back from behind when we have scored first, as at Brighton
 
finbar70 said:
Brentford game will be really interesting for me

They are rolling teams every week there. Have they played any of the top 6/7 at home yet besides Newcastle?
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They aren't rolling.
They are conceding nearly 2 goals a game. But are scoring slightly over 2 goals a game.

Winning games 3-2, 4-3 and 4-2.
 
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