Here we go...
Britain’s economic resurgence...
Philip Shaw from Investec has pencilled in blistering growth of 7.3% this year, but says it could be over 8%. “We’re trying not to sound outrageous but that is what the numbers are telling us,” he said. The firm has the Eurozone pegged at 4.4%.
Upgrades are pouring in. The Swiss bank UBS has raised its UK forecast from 3.8% to 5.5%. Bank of America and Barclays have both raised theirs to 5.9%.
A “very optimistic” Goldman Sachs is eyeing 7.1%, thanks to both early and rapid vaccination. The US bank says press alarmism about a 1.3 million exodus of EU nationals fleeing London is nonsense. “The true net outflow of migrants is closer to the 200,000 mark,” it said. It predicts that many will return soon because jobs are scarce at home. Migrants from Hong Kong will do the rest.
“Everybody has been too bearish on the UK,” said David Owen from Jefferies. “It is going to be a ‘coiled spring’ recovery and we even think the UK will outperform the US in 2022 with 7.6% growth.”
Owen says a powerful inventory cycle is about to kick in as firms restock. This will be turbocharged by £100bn of excess savings built up by companies over the pandemic.
Yeah, but... Oh wait.