EU strategy to destroy the Chequers ‘agreement’...

[Tarian]

The reason for stockpiling is that the majority of supply chains across Europe work on a just in time basis, made possible by the customs union. Kieran the van driver has got a bit of fame lately explaining how it works, and how it wont.

Wrt to which regulation the govt will introduce etc - it's not that, it's that 40+ years of legislation and trade deals will suddenly vanish and we will not be able to transport things without any friction anymore.

The reason this wont affect Europe as badly as us, is that their trade agreements will continue with the other countries in the world and the EU, meaning that they can shift suppliers. The UK on the other hand will be in a fucking state of our own making due to mass ignorance/denial of what a no deal brexit will actually look like.

MM.
How is "just in time" (which applies more to some industries than others) an "explanation" for stockpiling > in the UK < ?
What products has HM Customs told you that it plans to introduce extra checks on ?
(I heard the Boss of HMRC - twice - so I think I'm pretty clear on the answer.......)

Or, have you been told that the EU plans to block exports to the UK?
I'm genuinely interested.

As for "Kieran" ....
I heard him "live". He seemed to be primarily an exporter #.
Apparently he already suffers delays at the Swiss border - and seemed to think it relevant to complain about the UK Govt. and not the Swiss.

# It didn't seem to occur to "Kieran" that he should be asking the EU what delays they plan to introduce and why.

Why is it that complaining Remainers seem to live in a looking-glass world where their current object of complaint (The UK Govt) is not the entity (the EU) they should be worried / complaining about ?

 

[Jerryattrick]

Shotshy, i was not having a go about you or the rights or wrongs of brexit.
Pharma is or was my field and i was just informing/clarifying things around the ema.
i do not think we need to negotiate with suppliers/manufacturers as majority worldwide require EMA or FDA regulations. UK works to the highest standard of those two which makes research and manufacturing more efficient and cheaper.
We do not need to produce standards or supply medicines inspectors. The European countries not in the EU still use ema standards. Trade with usa will be simple as we already use fda standards.

Have not been into the ema recently but The ema does not just have people in london and the main people from london will be well compensated. Agree many staff will not want to relocate as they will then get redundancy money :)

This is normal in pharma, it is happening in the current AZ move from Lankashire to Cambridge. Also happened in the moves of many GSK moves overseas.

The impact of brexit will will be around any change to tariffs or customs rules. Cannot comment on current planning for brexit as i am probably still under confidentiality rules.

If anyone knows anything factualy different then I would interested to know. Once again, was not a pop at brexiteers :j

 

[MedwayModernist]

MM.
How is "just in time" (which applies more to some industries than others) an "explanation" for stockpiling > in the UK < ?
What products has HM Customs told you that it plans to introduce extra checks on ?
(I heard the Boss of HMRC - twice - so I think I'm pretty clear on the answer.......)

Or, have you been told that the EU plans to block exports to the UK?
I'm genuinely interested.

So, with supply chains, the clue is in the name - Just in time. Firms do not keep large reserves of items such as fresh food because it is costly and wasteful to do so, therefore stuff is delivered just in time to be used.

Take away the customs union, and suddenly you have checks on borders in and out of the EU, which means that delays occur. These delays are not insignificant, and compound upon each other. Suddenly, what was a fairly free flowing system of goods coming in to the country, is slowed to the point of how quickly customs can be processed, which simply means shortages, which is simply unarguable. It will be like a literal traffic jam that gets longer and longer, as more lorries arrive in dover or calais per hour than it takes to process those already there. This is a real problem, and ignoring it or dismissing it is a dangerous option for the UK to take.

Have you got a link to the quotes from the "boss of HMRC" btw? I work in expat tax and tend to pay attention and be aware of information that HMRC issue, and I've heard none of that.

Only link I've seen is this, where he is not too optimistic.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44372011

 

[MedwayModernist]

As for "Kieran" ....
I heard him "live". He seemed to be primarily an exporter #.
Apparently he already suffers delays at the Swiss border - and seemed to think it relevant to complain about the UK Govt. and not the Swiss.

He runs a company in the industry, and has first hand experience of how the supply chain will be ruined by leaving the customs union. He's a transporter, importing and exporting, and his business simply wont be viable if we leave the customs union.

 

[MedwayModernist]

# It didn't seem to occur to "Kieran" that he should be asking the EU what delays they plan to introduce and why.

Why is it that complaining Remainers seem to live in a looking-glass world where their current object of complaint (The UK Govt) is not the entity (the EU) they should be worried / complaining about ?

The EU's position has not changed since the vote. They are looking out for their own members, as they should, and if a deal cannot be agreed between the UK and the EU after brexit happens, then the UK will simply revert to being a 3rd party country that has no relationship with the EU.

The UK is the one that took the decision to leave, and so it is on the UK to set out how it would like it's relationship with the EU to continue, and come to an agreement. The fault is with the UK government, media, and population, and hence the blame is on the UK, not the EU, for the utter bag of shit situation we're stumbling towards.

 

[Trashbat]

So which firms are actually stockpiling (not merely issuing press releases that they might.)
What things are they stockpiling ?

More importantly "why" are they stockpiling ?

Which Regulation has the Govt said it will introduce that will cause "supply chain disruption" into the UK ?

Assuming you can quote a Regulation.....
...Which products are planned to be "disrupted" .

Insofar as you have still failed to quote the EU regs - you have lost the argument on banangate.

I am regrettably unable to quote any UK government regulation that will cause supply chain disruption since the only document we have to go by is May’s Chequers white paper which isn’t even worth the paper it’s written on. Had Brexiteers had an agreed plan then I might have been a little more successful. Maybe you are ITK... ...certainly the government aren’t!

I believe that they are stockpiling because of the risk of a no deal wherein components will not be able to flow across boarders as freely as they do today. In order to avoid disruption to the supply chain, a stock of inventory would be needed.

You are right that I am referring to press releases. We won’t truly know the extent of the stockpiling until these companies release their annual reports.

 

[Tarian]

Insofar as you have still failed to quote the EU regs - you have lost the argument on banangate.

I am regrettably unable to quote any UK government regulation that will cause supply chain disruption since the only document we have to go by is May’s Chequers white paper which isn’t even worth the paper it’s written on.

QUOTE
>>>>
EC Commission Regulation No 2257/94
of 16 September 1994
laying down quality standards for bananas
(The EU's description)

— free from malformation or abnormal curvature of the fingers
(The words in the Regulation)
<<<

Do you know what ? I'll make a concession.
- The many stories across Europe in the late 90's about mis-shapen fruit being thrown away.
- The EU changing its Regulations
- The Guardian even reporting that "EU rules banning bent bananas and curved cucumbers are set to be scrapped"

Between us we'll call them "EU Rules on abnormal curvature of bananas".
(But others can call them "straight banana rules")

Do you think the Poll Tax was a "myth" ?
Can quote the Regulation with the words "Poll Tax" ??????

I believe that they are stockpiling because of the risk of a no deal wherein components will not be able to flow across boarders as freely as they do today. In order to avoid disruption to the supply chain, a stock of inventory would be needed.

You are right that I am referring to press releases. We won’t truly know the extent of the stockpiling until these companies release their annual reports.

You still haven't explained "why";
"components will not be able to flow ..." into the UK.
What things has the HMRC said it plans to check more - and why ?

 

[Trashbat]

QUOTE
>>>>
EC Commission Regulation No 2257/94
of 16 September 1994
laying down quality standards for bananas
(The EU's description)

— free from malformation or abnormal curvature of the fingers
(The words in the Regulation)
<<<

Do you know what ? I'll make a concession.
- The many stories across Europe in the late 90's about mis-shapen fruit being thrown away.
- The EU changing its Regulations
- The Guardian even reporting that "EU rules banning bent bananas and curved cucumbers are set to be scrapped"

Between us we'll call them "EU Rules on abnormal curvature of bananas".
(But others can call them "straight banana rules")

Do you think the Poll Tax was a "myth" ?
Can quote the Regulation with the words "Poll Tax" ??????




You still haven't explained "why";
"components will not be able to flow ..." into the UK.
What things has the HMRC said it plans to check more - and why ?

The EU regulations don’t prohibit the sale of mis-shapen bananas then, right?

 

[Trashbat]

QUOTE
>>>>
EC Commission Regulation No 2257/94
of 16 September 1994
laying down quality standards for bananas
(The EU's description)

— free from malformation or abnormal curvature of the fingers
(The words in the Regulation)
<<<

Do you know what ? I'll make a concession.
- The many stories across Europe in the late 90's about mis-shapen fruit being thrown away.
- The EU changing its Regulations
- The Guardian even reporting that "EU rules banning bent bananas and curved cucumbers are set to be scrapped"

Between us we'll call them "EU Rules on abnormal curvature of bananas".
(But others can call them "straight banana rules")

Do you think the Poll Tax was a "myth" ?
Can quote the Regulation with the words "Poll Tax" ??????




You still haven't explained "why";
"components will not be able to flow ..." into the UK.
What things has the HMRC said it plans to check more - and why ?

I said components would not flow as freely as they do today. That is a basic axiom of the single market. Customs checks would be necessary.

Additional boarder staff have been hired on both UK and EU side. What do you expect them to be doing? Perhaps customs checks at the border?

 

[Tarian]

The EU regulations don’t prohibit the sale of mis-shapen bananas then, right?

Correct. (In-so-far as curvature is concerned. I do not know whether "double-fingered" bananas are still regulated)

EU Regs no longer prohibit the sale of all mis-shapen bananas since:
EU Regulation No 1333/2011 of 19 December 2011 ...
... which came into effect on 9 January 2012.

The point was - it wasn't a "myth"....
.... and the EU being a very sensible, rational organisation, seeing the unintended consequences of an over-proscriptive Reg, combined with over-zealous application ....... changed it.
Well Done EU !

 

[Gills 58]

Experts know nothing.

They should just have faith, like religious nutters.

 

[Tarian]

I said components would not flow as freely as they do today. That is a basic axiom of the single market. Customs checks would be necessary.

Sorry, but you still seem to be assuming that the UK "must" increase border checks.
According to Jon Thompson (Boss of HMRC), there are 3 reasons to check imports - and the mix can be changed by the politicians;
i) security
ii) tax
iii) safety

Additional boarder staff have been hired on both UK and EU side. What do you expect them to be doing? Perhaps customs checks at the border?

According to various sources, UK Border Force plan to recruit an extra 1,500 staff - but 1,200 are for the immigration department - processing EU citizens.
So an extra 300 at the borders seems a sensible precaution.

If you are aware of a much higher number - at the borders - I would be genuinely interested - and "why".

 

[Wayne.Kerr]

So which firms are actually stockpiling (not merely issuing press releases that they might.)
What things are they stockpiling ?

More importantly "why" are they stockpiling ?

Which Regulation has the Govt said it will introduce that will cause "supply chain disruption" into the UK ?

Assuming you can quote a Regulation.....
...Which products are planned to be "disrupted" .

Many firms are planning to stockpile ahead of Brexit not because of long term structural changes in the market but possible short term disruption - nothing to do with 'regulations'. Obviously, they don't take these decisions lightly because first any imports are subject to 20% VAT; OK, they can reclaim the input VAT but for smaller businesses it can mean cash flow problems.

 

[Wayne.Kerr]

Do you have any evidence that we currently import a lot of the raw materials from the EU and they do not import any from us?

I find it hard to believe that with drugs giants on these shores the size of Glaxo, that no domestic companies either grow or manufacture the materials that comprise their drugs.

Stockpiling in the short term makes sense so they can cover a small time period caused my initial customs delays if there is no deal. Once everything is clear and the extent of the delays are known, they will adapt.

This article covers chemicals in general and it is reported that significant amounts of raw materials are imported from the EU.

Please don't dismiss statements because you either find hard to believe or fly in the face of your Brexit beliefs. I have over forty years experience in the petrochem sector, including pharma

http://files.chemicalwatch.com/CIA Brexit survey.pdf

 

[Wayne.Kerr]

According to Jon Thompson (Boss of HMRC), there are 3 reasons to check imports - and the mix can be changed by the politicians;
i) security
ii) tax
iii) safety

After a 'no deal' Brexit, all goods will be subject to tariff/duty as well as VAT. Prior to the free market, moneys had to be deposited with the then Customs Authorities in order to cover duties etc and all the accompanying clerical work that went with it. I guess you feel the extra admin inconvenience is worth it.

 

[Gills 58]

I've told you, these experts know nothing. These idiots who run successful businesses are stupid for stockpiling.

I trust Rees Mogg who is so patriotic that he has just set up some hedge funds in Dublin. I was told by a Brexit mate of mine how much he loves this country.

Belieeeeeve.

 

[Therealwaldo]

Tarian just thinks that anything negative is scaremongering. Obviously supermarket chiefs who have to satisfy their shareholders are happy to say that their businesses will be adversely affected and are happy to talk their share price down. In the lala land that Tarian occupies, they are all engaged in a massive scare tactic that also doubles as a massive exercise in self harm just to boost project fear. Of course Tarian knows better.

 

[Tarian]

This article covers chemicals in general and it is reported that significant amounts of raw materials are imported from the EU.

Please don't dismiss statements because you either find hard to believe or fly in the face of your Brexit beliefs. I have over forty years experience in the petrochem sector, including pharma

http://files.chemicalwatch.com/CIA Brexit survey.pdf

How is the linked article related to claims of "stockpiling" materials?
The article lists predictable concerns about possible hurdles and delays.
But nowhere does it anticipate serious difficulties bringing in materials.

One can infer one possible reason for "stockpiling" - and it isn't new border controls !

 

[Tarian]

I've told you, these experts know nothing. These idiots who run successful businesses are stupid for stockpiling.

Belieeeeeve.

The "experts" Gove was sceptical about was economists - such as the ~300 who said disaster would result from the UK not joining the UK.
But of course you know that ..........

 

[Tarian]

Tarian just thinks that anything negative is scaremongering. Obviously supermarket chiefs who have to satisfy their shareholders are happy to say that their businesses will be adversely affected and are happy to talk their share price down. In the lala land that Tarian occupies, they are all engaged in a massive scare tactic that also doubles as a massive exercise in self harm just to boost project fear. Of course Tarian knows better.

"anything negative" ....Another effing strawman !

The future is unpredictable. Some things will go well, others not so well.
But anyone predicting financial "disaster" without good reason loses credibility.
And mere reference to "Brexit" is not a reason for negativity.

And no. I'm not predicting a "perfect" future - but will continue to challenge doom-mongers to justify their pessimism with the probability of a negative outcome - not just merely "could" be bad.

As for FTSE bosses "talking their own share price down".
Are they all doing so ?
Or maybe just the ones with current business flat-lining - so what better than to "blame Brexit" to lower expectations.

The Wetherspoon's boss seems to be taking Brexit in his stride.

And IIRC, there is the boss of a Kent based boat-maker who - possibly reluctantly - felt compelled to market outside the EU - and has found new customers.

"Cherry-picking" of course - but surely better than sweeping generalisations of improbable negativity?