EU strategy to destroy the Chequers ‘agreement’... | Page 2 | Vital Football

EU strategy to destroy the Chequers ‘agreement’...

GillsBluenose said:
Could one of you sages explain one thing for me. What exactly is a trade deal with a country or a body like the EU? No, I am not joking.

The only plausible description would be for instance when we supply or buy items used and paid for by government departments, military, public services, etc in other countries.

Surely that would be dwarfed by deals done between, say, individual French companies and individual British companies. Why should a "deal" need to be done between governments for that practice to take place or indeed continue if both parties wish it to? Surely there would be some outrage about interference by the state if that was prevented.

I was thinking about that when it was said on the news that we have a substantial trade surplus with the USA already (despite being in the EU), so we (or our businesses) must already be trading heavily with them, whereas we have a heavy trade deficit with the EU:
https://fullfact.org/economy/trade-deficit-surplus-USA-EU/

Is the answer that these national "trade deals" are in fact just agreements about what tariffs will be charged if any?
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Scare stories/fake news from people who can't accept a result.
We will be free , and we are a large market , export and import
Take no notice of losers ,
Britain will flourish ??
 
Gillsbluenose, there are three elements involved in any trade deal; tariffs, quotas and standards. In a trade deal between two countries, we could mutually choose to reduce or eliminate tariffs where they currently exist. Tariffs exist only to protect the home economy against competition that it regards as unfair or which its home industries can't withstand. Quotas relate to specific amount of any particular product that we are willing to accept. Again, quotas exist to protect home industries. Incidentally, quotas exist on lamb between New Zealand and the EU. When the UK said that we'll just have our share of the EU quota when we leave, New Zealand said, "on yer bike", because they need the flexibility provided by the whole of the EU market, i.e. If demand for lamb drops in the UK they need to be able to increase supply to the rest of the EU. They lose that ability when we leave. The third element is standards. If we don't want toys covered in lead paint, we have to be up front about that when we trade. At the moment we are part of the EU standards regime. In practice world trade is largely conducted using one of only two sets of standards, EU or US standards. Trade deals are complex as they involve both countries involved seeking to protect their own interests. Claims that massive new trade deals can be negotiated quickly are fanciful in my opinion and it certainly isn't the common experience across the world. There are of course no tariffs and no quotas in the trade between the 28 EU countries and, as we've all agreed to work to the same set of standards, no need to check each other's goods for compliance.
 
Waldo, why would you take notice of the OBR? They are experts so we should disregard what they say. We should also imagine that they are bowing to their paymasters in Brussels even though I've just made up that lie to devalue their opinion. Much better to believe Brain of Britain Davies and amoral Johnson.

Trashbat - "satisficing" = excellent expression to describe what May's been doing. Never heard that word used other than in an academic context at exam level.
 
Goods for compliance ?
The EU imports millions of tonnes of plastic fake crap from the Chinese every year.
Most of it fails compliance laws and quality tests , and will barely last its statutary warranty.
 
Thanks, Waldo. Sort of what I understood them to be. Largely to do with tariffs and quotas. Tariffs makes goods more expensive but would not stop individual companies continuing to trade cross border but of course quotas might.

I did find your comment "Trade deals are complex as they involve both countries involved seeking to protect their own interests." interesting. Some are sceptical about us doing a trade deal with Trump as he is constantly stating "America first" so it could be largely on his terms. Logically, that suggests that it may also be the same situation with Japan and their EU trade deal particularly with their reputation for the production and supply of electronic goods at high speed and volume.
 
The Japanese do like european luxury goods eg scotch, anything with a designer label, europen wine, french cheese etc. Here in NZ one winery changed its label from Natarawa (which the japanese couldnt pronounce) to Stables and watched Japanese sales go through the roof.
Great trade deal for the EU. Just wondering where this leaves UK Japanese car production. I suspect money will talk, and production will move to Europe.
Japan is a big market with lots of money to splash around.
 
The problem with this whole thing was Vote Leave phrased it like removing a plaster. Unpleasant, but better done in one quick go. Short and painful, but over quickly.

In reality it's more like cutting off a leg considering how intertwined the UK and EU has become over 40 years of integration. Then expecting us to hop off into new found prosperity.
 
Archiepoptart said:
The Japanese do like european luxury goods eg scotch, anything with a designer label, europen wine, french cheese etc. Here in NZ one winery changed its label from Natarawa (which the japanese couldnt pronounce) to Stables and watched Japanese sales go through the roof.
Great trade deal for the EU. Just wondering where this leaves UK Japanese car production. I suspect money will talk, and production will move to Europe.
Japan is a big market with lots of money to splash around.
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The problem is Archie, that they have not agreed a trade deal.
They have been talking since 2012 have have now agreed the bare bones. The Japanese have agreed to accelerate talks simply because of Trump.

The EU countries have not even ratified the CETA deal yet and Italy are threatening a veto.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/ceta/news/italy-threatens-to-block-ceta-ratification/

The EU often put out these smoke and mirror statements but they are many years off actually signing and ratifying and trade deal.

It's likely that the UK could do a bi-lateral deal with Japan before the EU are ready. Too many vested interests to please. Remember Wallonia rejecting CETA and had to be bought off?

Interestingly, I've searched hard and cannot find the mention of Japan paying for access to the EU market or accepting millions of EU migrants and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. I expect that it's in there somewhere.
 
nitram77 said:
It isn't May who has screwed this up, it's all the people trying to overturn the will of the people, all the non-elected privileged people who sit around in the house of Lords doing sweet FA apart from protect their business interests and to hell with the UK. The politicians who have spat their dummy out because the vote didn't go their way, and will do anything to disrupt the negotiations. With a little bit of support and solidarity for May the EU would be more willing to keep an open mind at the negotiations, with the remain camp trying to force their views on the majority the EU can just sit back and watch the UK destroy itself.
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The will of the people is VERY poor argument that falls apart when you look in to what people voted for.

You had leave campaigners saying that we would keep a Swiss model, we had campaigners saying we could have Norwegian model, we had campaigners saying we'd NEVER leave the customs union or single market, we had campaigners saying that we needed to remove ourselves entirely and that the day after the vote we'd be doing deals in Berlin (forgetting you can't because of the bloody EU rules Germany abide by).

So, unless you're going to argue that 92% of those who voted leave (48/52) knew they were voting for the exact same thing, the will of the people was to keep the status quo.

As mentioned a million times, referendums are a bad idea, and this referendum was a terrible idea, as it basically came down to a choice of "status quo" or "change", and they never said what the change would ACTUALLY be.

There should be a two stage run off vote like they have in other, more democratic countries now. First off, to vote on which brexit deal you would want to go with.

Second, to vote for the winner of the first vote vs remaining in the EU as is.
 
To be fair MM, the 'status quo' was never on the table.
It was really leave or a more, expanding EU.

Even as a leaver, I'd be content with another vote on it.
As the country has already voted to leave the binary question should be
Leave with May's white paper option
Leave with WTO terms.
 
Archiepoptart said:
The Japanese do like european luxury goods eg scotch, anything with a designer label, europen wine, french cheese etc. Here in NZ one winery changed its label from Natarawa (which the japanese couldnt pronounce) to Stables and watched Japanese sales go through the roof.
Great trade deal for the EU. Just wondering where this leaves UK Japanese car production. I suspect money will talk, and production will move to Europe.
Japan is a big market with lots of money to splash around.
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It effectively leaves the UK following EU rules on just about everything if it wants to trade with Japan and it will still have to negotiate terms if it's outside the EU. The EU started negotiations with Japan in 2013 - that's how long theses things can take.
 
GillsBluenose said:
Could one of you sages explain one thing for me. What exactly is a trade deal with a country or a body like the EU? No, I am not joking.
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GATT [general agreement on tariffs and trade] sets out the basic format under which countries co-operate but behind it there is a whole raft of issues, eg quotas, protecting local industries, alignment of standards and specs, movement of people [visas etc], treatment of students, reciprocity on taxes, agreements on shipping and air transport, agreement financial services and insurance and even how arbitration should be handled. It all ends up with a specific or bi-lateral agreement on tariffs and trade.
 
shotshy said:
To be fair MM, the 'status quo' was never on the table.
It was really leave or a more, expanding EU.

Even as a leaver, I'd be content with another vote on it.
As the country has already voted to leave the binary question should be
Leave with May's white paper option
Leave with WTO terms.
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With May's precarious precarious position at Westminster, there could be a general election sooner rather than later let alone leadership election. The outcome of a GE could see a complete reversal, ie a remain vote, who knows?
 
shotshy said:
To be fair MM, the 'status quo' was never on the table.
It was really leave or a more, expanding EU.

Even as a leaver, I'd be content with another vote on it.
As the country has already voted to leave the binary question should be
Leave with May's white paper option
Leave with WTO terms.
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It LITERALLY was the status quo to stay in. The UK has a veto option, so we could have vetoed any new members. So if we didn't want it to increase we could have ensured it didn't.
 
The sad thing is, even if we do leave (which to be honest, is looking like an if at this stage), I imagine it'll only be a matter of time until a campaign to rejoin will start.

It may take a generation or so, but it'll happen, without all of the lovely vetos we currently have.
 
Coming out of the EU seems to me to be like an attempt to turn the clock back. No one is saying that there aren't things wrong with globalisation but it's an inexorable process that has nothing to do with conspiracy theories. Its fairly obvious that where there are those that are big and strong in the world, if you want to compete on equal terms, you must cooperate with others to do so. If you don't, then the big and powerful call the shots, just as they do in any market place. Making ourselves smaller in the market place just makes us more vulnerable to those larger interests. Are people seriously suggesting that if we enter negotiations with the USA on a trade deal, they will treat us as equal partners ? All of Trump's actions suggest otherwise.
 
Saying why people voted for something is bonkers! It's like saying people voted for the Tories, because they wanted hospitals to close, cut our police force to the bare bones, cuts to the fire brigade so they can't deal with some emergencies, cuts to public services leaving many homeless etc. I'm sure most people didn't vote conservative for these reasons!
We are never asked why we are voting for something, just what we are voting and the majority wins. The majority voted leave...
 
Wayne.Kerr said:
The EU started negotiations with Japan in 2013 - that's how long theses things can take.
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Not really.

It should take two countries less time to agree a deal over overlapping interests than a country trying to agree with an entity where one side has to get an opinion from 27 different countries before it can agree something. An EU - Japan deal would cover a wider range of goods and services than would be relevant to a UK - Japan deal. We wouldn't need to discuss and agree on products that might be considered distinctly French or German.
 
LSB2 said:
Saying why people voted for something is bonkers! It's like saying people voted for the Tories, because they wanted hospitals to close, cut our police force to the bare bones, cuts to the fire brigade so they can't deal with some emergencies, cuts to public services leaving many homeless etc. I'm sure most people didn't vote conservative for these reasons!
We are never asked why we are voting for something, just what we are voting and the majority wins. The majority voted leave...
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It was a FUCKING REFERENDUM!!!

A referendum is a simple question of do you want X or Y, should we do this or should we do that. The choice we had was do we want status quo or do we want something else that we don't really know what it is... and people voted for change, despite the official campaigners for it not exactly agreeing on what it would bloody well be!

We now have more information and realise just exactly how fucking shambolic the whole process will be.
 
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