Do the numbers stack up???? | Page 2 | Vital Football

Do the numbers stack up????

Spursex said:
And just to add another thought; I'm told that one of their biggest trading arms - the smart city stuff, suspended trading in their shares due to having to deal with a margin call after a share decline in their value - which probably means that the source of free cash has dried up with it as they look to conserve cash to meet their stated public share buy-back plan.

If this as I understand it and on top of the Chinese governments dictate that lending for overseas purchases/assets should only be for strategic advantage and local political influence, then the Chinese banks that are currently dealing with their own form of credit crunch, are probably close to cutting them off/lending wise - which would explain why the business has been drip fed cash, and now can't be extended.

If accurate, the the only chance Xia will have is to off-load his holding to someone else - very quickly - or as seems more likely to hold a near fire sale of player assets to prop up cashflow through the summer months.

Once again it looks to me as if Villa have gone from the one bad situation to another.

I wish it wasn't so.

edit, I should have added that if they've had a margin call it will probably be because they pledged share assets again borrowings - although I haven't done the work to ascertain if that is the case this time around, but either way it will mean that a lender wants more cover/cash back to protect themselves - for a trading business that is always a dangerous position to be in.
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Xia sold his shares in Teamax in 2016, although is still a director of the company. Highly unlikely that Teamax has anything to do with Villa in any shape or form.
 
So from this we can see the good Doctor bought the club with the Intention of shooting it back into the Premiership before he run out of money. Had Vila got promoted the value of a Premiership club would have allowed him to sell the club on at a tidy profit and walk away the hero.

I remember posting something like this in a thread with Mike Field at the start of the John Terry era, this was a one shot winner takes all pop at putting Villa back in top flight.

What I never realised is "One shot only had one fucking bullet"
 
DeanoVilla said:
Think my point is that a net spend of £27.5 million per year isn't THAT much.

Not enough to bankrupt a club, especially a club of our size and stature, with a 'Billionaire' owner, a reducing wage bill, and vast parachute payments coming in.
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In reality it's just a few mil more than we physically know RL was putting in each year/taking a loss on to fund spending.

I'm not really seeing much difference other than one of them knows how to use Twitter when you ignore non profit motives.
 
McParlandTheGreat said:
Anybody know when parachute payments are actually payed?

Doesn't make sense being the start of a season, because it would mean a newly relegated club receiving the first payment on top of its final PL payment. Is it payed in installements?

To put it differently, have we received all of the second year parachute payment? Could make quite a difference.
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Announced by Prem at end of season, so our third year comes in this time next year is how it's sat in my head.
 
Silhillvilla said:
Lerner did put money in, Xia has not
Lerner total cost was about £80k a day while he owned us
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If a club makes a loss, then the Championship annual allowed limit on losses is £13m if the owner covers the loss, and £5m if he doesn't. Note that this is the owner, nothing to do with parachute payments. Pretty obviously Xia is covering the losses.
 
The overall numbers don't seem to, but he's been putting something in - hence the extra EFL leeway. The EFL would've wanted proof to enact that leeway.

I can't not come back to has Xia been putting in petrol money rather than bankrolling though. Did that change last August maybe? Has he ever bankrolled?
 
col8 said:
So from this we can see the good Doctor bought the club with the Intention of shooting it back into the Premiership before he run out of money. Had Vila got promoted the value of a Premiership club would have allowed him to sell the club on at a tidy profit and walk away the hero.

I remember posting something like this in a thread with Mike Field at the start of the John Terry era, this was a one shot winner takes all pop at putting Villa back in top flight.

What I never realised is "One shot only had one fucking bullet"
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.... which is why you know who is in a perilous place right now because he didn't do the business
 
ironside said:
It's getting to the state where you need to be an accountant to understand football.
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Mate we're not a football club we are that in name only we are a commercial entity. Its been this way for a long time.

On a separate note:
Doing barely any research the 40M number seems to come from the assumption that we'll lose 7-14M again and the 25-30M odd drop from parachute payments. However if you go by the 4-5M amount we apparently owe each month that is 48-60M. What we owe HMRC can't be that much it is a portion of it. For me the media is just twisting things and leaving important information out. The tax rate is something like 20% and our turnover is maybe 70M and we're probably spending 60-80M this season. Nothing stacks up.

I just can't buy into it not being scare mongering and click bait from Sky and BBC but I'm not an accountant so what would I know. Make no mistake we're in a tight spot but how can we even make a conclusion at this point.
 
Lerner put so much money in and turned us into the English Cleveland Browns.
 
CDX_EIRE said:
Make no mistake we're in a tight spot but how can we even make a conclusion at this point.
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It's amazing how people have gained access to Villa's finances and become financial experts almost overnight, isn't it?

All we know for sure is we have failed to pay Inland Revenue when we were supposed to, we have suspended our CEO (who is now threatening to sue us for constructive dismissal) and we have lost a number of players who were instrumental in our supposedly "successful" fourth-place finish.

In short, the only thing we know is that we have turned into a laughing stock and are being embarrassed nationally (and perhaps internationally) by the disgraceful mis-management of the club by Xia Jiantong and his appointees.
 
Mike spotted that I got my calculations a bit wrong -

Correct numbers below -

Ins

Name Fee Wage
Elphick 3000000 30000
Gollini 4000000 20000
Tshibola 5000000 20000
McCormack 12000000 40000
Chester 8000000 30000
Jedinak 4000000 50000
De Laet 2000000 25000
Kodjia 15000000 35000
Adomah 0 30000
Lansbury 2750000 40000
Bree 3000000 23000
Bjarnasson 2500000 25000
Hourihane 2000000 35000
Taylor 2000000 30000
Hogan 11000000 30000
Terry 0 60000
Elmohamady 1000000 30000
Samba 0 15000
Whelen 2000000 30000



Total 79250000 598000



Outs

Name Fee Wage
Richardson 0 50000
N'Zogbia 0 65000
Crespo 1000000 20000
Guzan 0 40000
Gueye 7100000 40000
Clark 5000000 25000
Sinclair 3500000 35000
Bennett 0 20000
Okore 1000000 35000
Lescott 0 50000
Traore 0 40000
Gestede 2000000 30000
Westwood 5000000 25000
Ayew 7000000 35000
Kozak 0 25000
Sanchez 3000000 30000
Veretout 7000000 35000
Baker 2000000 25000
Bacuna 1000000 20000
Amavi 6000000 30000
Gollini 3700000 20000
Gil 2000000 20000
Gabby 0 45000
Terry 0 60000


Total 56300000 820000


So that's roughly £80 million spent and £56 million recouped, so a net spend of £24 million or just £12m per year!!

The wages (I've not included the loan signings as they've now all left) have actually gone DOWN, reducing the wage bill by about £220,000 per week or £11 million per year!!!

So just £12 million per year NET spend since he arrived, and wages considerably down (I've got £11 million there, but rumours over wages being down well over £30 million since he arrived).

The figures are just bonkers. We simply HAVE NOT gambled on a return to the Prem when you look at that.

£12 million a year NET spend. I bet thats about average for the Championship.

And wages are falling to a Championship level.

It makes no sense.
 
McParlandTheGreat said:
Xia sold his shares in Teamax in 2016, although is still a director of the company. Highly unlikely that Teamax has anything to do with Villa in any shape or form.
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Hope you're right, but I'm told that Teamax was and is a big source of his funding. Hope I'm wrong, I do some more work to try and bottom this out.
 
DeanoVilla said:
Mike spotted that I got my calculations a bit wrong -

Correct numbers below -

Ins

Name Fee Wage
Elphick 3000000 30000
Gollini 4000000 20000
Tshibola 5000000 20000
McCormack 12000000 40000
Chester 8000000 30000
Jedinak 4000000 50000
De Laet 2000000 25000
Kodjia 15000000 35000
Adomah 0 30000
Lansbury 2750000 40000
Bree 3000000 23000
Bjarnasson 2500000 25000
Hourihane 2000000 35000
Taylor 2000000 30000
Hogan 11000000 30000
Terry 0 60000
Elmohamady 1000000 30000
Samba 0 15000
Whelen 2000000 30000



Total 79250000 598000



Outs

Name Fee Wage
Richardson 0 50000
N'Zogbia 0 65000
Crespo 1000000 20000
Guzan 0 40000
Gueye 7100000 40000
Clark 5000000 25000
Sinclair 3500000 35000
Bennett 0 20000
Okore 1000000 35000
Lescott 0 50000
Traore 0 40000
Gestede 2000000 30000
Westwood 5000000 25000
Ayew 7000000 35000
Kozak 0 25000
Sanchez 3000000 30000
Veretout 7000000 35000
Baker 2000000 25000
Bacuna 1000000 20000
Amavi 6000000 30000
Gollini 3700000 20000
Gil 2000000 20000
Gabby 0 45000
Terry 0 60000


Total 56300000 820000


So that's roughly £80 million spent and £56 million recouped, so a net spend of £24 million or just £12m per year!!

The wages (I've not included the loan signings as they've now all left) have actually gone DOWN, reducing the wage bill by about £220,000 per week or £11 million per year!!!

So just £12 million per year NET spend since he arrived, and wages considerably down (I've got £11 million there, but rumours over wages being down well over £30 million since he arrived).

The figures are just bonkers. We simply HAVE NOT gambled on a return to the Prem when you look at that.

£12 million a year NET spend. I bet thats about average for the Championship.

And wages are falling to a Championship level.

It makes no sense.
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Don't think the transfer spend has been that high. With wages it's the annual spend, taking account of when people actually came in or left, which matters. Think the figures I had were pretty close:
2015-2016 £93m
2016-2017 £61m
2017-2018 £39m
Come down a lot, but still high for a Championship club. Basically the club has spent £100m on player wages over the last two years, and something has to pay for that. Add in your spend on transfers and it comes to £124m.

Parachute payments over the last two years have totalled £74m. So a £50m deficit. Then you have the profit/loss figures for the club for other activities, not sure what they are, but the figure of a loss of £7.5m for 2016-2017 has been quoted. As far as I can see it has to be Xia covering the losses.
 
I don’t often listen to TalkSport but I’m cruising the airwaves at the moment for any info on Villa. Today I heard Simon Jordan talking, in very encouraging terms, about Villa. This football finance talk mostly goes over my head since I subscribe to the economics of Mr. Micawber,but one thing Jordan said brought things into closer focus for me.
“In business losses are a cancer which will get you in the end. Cash flow is like a heart attack. It can kill you straight away.”
 
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