#COVID19 | Page 889 | Vital Football

#COVID19

Pope John XXIII

Vital Football Legend
The difference is substantial:
So it's about 650 men in their 40's admitted into hospital for critical care in 6 months.

Assuming a death rate of around a third (that's high I think) you are likely talking 200 men in 6 months, compared with maybe 60-70 in the 30's age group based on the same assumptions.

The question remains; how many would die if they had 1.5m people (and it wouldn't be as many as that since many teachers are over 40 anyway, as are some police) added to their group, necessitating potentially some of them waiting a few more days between booking and taking their appointment?

That's the real question.

What is that death rate likely to be, and does having full public services out on the ground justify it?
 

Calvin Plummer

Vital Football Legend
So it's about 650 men in their 40's admitted into hospital for critical care in 6 months.

Assuming a death rate of around a third (that's high I think) you are likely talking 200 men in 6 months, compared with maybe 60-70 in the 30's age group based on the same assumptions.

The question remains; how many would die if they had 1.5m people (and it wouldn't be as many as that since many teachers are over 40 anyway, as are some police) added to their group, necessitating potentially some of them waiting a few more days between booking and taking their appointment?

That's the real question.

What is that death rate likely to be, and does having full public services out on the ground justify it?
I get your want protection but just be patient...you've also misread the data, that's per million so multiply your figure by 60 or so.

The biggest factor outside of death (which you dismiss as neither here nor there) is simplicity and effectiveness. This plan ticks both boxes and given this government that is a wise strategy.

Also once you start prioritising one group over another on anything but death it becomes subjective.

Why should a 25 year old middle class white woman be vaccinated before a 49 year old BAME who is unemployed? The death rates are night and day in comparison.
 

Woanz

Vital Football Legend

Pope John XXIII

Vital Football Legend
I get your want protection but just be patient...you've also misread the data, that's per million so multiply your figure by 60 or so.

The biggest factor outside of death (which you dismiss as neither here nor there) is simplicity and effectiveness. This plan ticks both boxes and given this government that is a wise strategy.

Also once you start prioritising one group over another on anything but death it becomes subjective.

Why should a 25 year old middle class white woman be vaccinated before a 49 year old BAME who is unemployed? The death rates are night and day in comparison.
Like I said, Mrs Pope is done so my personal interest in any kind of speed is over. I am literally debating this, that's all. Its not really about protection for me; if I was likely to get it, I should have had it by now (no, I'm not claiming immunity, but I have already got through October/November/December when Nottingham had awful transmission rates).

I have said repeatedly how easy it would be logistically to add on all three groups I'm talking about. The bulk of the information gathering can literally be done by schools/ police and you literally get employers to send the link. Doing so does not delay anything, other than possibly my age group.

Currently the NHS is responsible for identifying people via GPs. They then get sent a link to a swiftqueue booking. The swiftqueue doesn't even require an NHS number to book; if I wanted to use my wife's link I could book on in theory. The volunteers at the centre will check you have a booking but I am not aware of them doing any checking that you should have made the booking in the first place- we already have a problem of people sneaking in.

Already the NHS is having to coordinate with the DWP because they have already invited people who are carers and recieve carers allowance. Did that slow things down? Nope. So to say they cannot coordinate similarly with headteachers via the DFE, or via the police Federation is, quite simply, bullshit. Both of those organisations could do all the work for the NHS. I do believe JCVI are lying to the public when they hide behind "possible delays" as a reason why they have not done this.

As I have said several times, you would be adding no more than 1.5m to the 7m being done in the 40-49 age group (likely to be a lot less than that). The booking system opens appointments based on vaccine availability and capacity to vaccinate; there was literally no problem in adding these keyworkers.

At worst this would delay my age group starting by a few days, extend the 40-49 vaccination period by a few days. To reiterate; the organisation of teachers and police is such that there is absolutely no reason why organising their vaccination should delay anything.

Now, if you wanted to do supermarket workers, taxi drivers, delivery drivers etc then that would be a nightmare logistically; there are no equivalent central records nor organisations to put them forward and organise candidates. Doing so would significantly delay the vaccine rollout.

My belief is that police and teachers have been overlooked, not because of potential delays (that simply isn't true) but because JCVI is either concerned over unfairness in targeting some keyworkers and not others or is afraid of backlash over perceived unfairness by those workers. That will be the root of their decision.

The consequences of that are obvious; we are going to have a police force that is stretched as the country begins to reopen, and we are going to have teachers absent through illness or self isolation, and possibly instances of year groups having to rotate where several teachers are self isolating at the same time. JCVI have made the choice that this is preferable to the alternative.

Well, that's the decision. All we can do is debate it now and ultimately get on with it.

As for your comparison, a 25 year old teacher should be at considerably higher risk than a 49 year old BAME unemployed person. We have no evidence that BAME are genetically more vulnerable (to my knowledge) and your unemployed BAME has no workplace in which to put themselves in danger. Unless they behave unwisely, there is no reason why they should contract it, yet your 25 year old teacher (her class gives her no genetic advantage) is in far more danger of contracting it. You have to buy a ticket to die of COVID.
 

Calvin Plummer

Vital Football Legend
Like I said, Mrs Pope is done so my personal interest in any kind of speed is over. I am literally debating this, that's all. Its not really about protection for me; if I was likely to get it, I should have had it by now (no, I'm not claiming immunity, but I have already got through October/November/December when Nottingham had awful transmission rates).

I have said repeatedly how easy it would be logistically to add on all three groups I'm talking about. The bulk of the information gathering can literally be done by schools/ police and you literally get employers to send the link. Doing so does not delay anything, other than possibly my age group.

Currently the NHS is responsible for identifying people via GPs. They then get sent a link to a swiftqueue booking. The swiftqueue doesn't even require an NHS number to book; if I wanted to use my wife's link I could book on in theory. The volunteers at the centre will check you have a booking but I am not aware of them doing any checking that you should have made the booking in the first place- we already have a problem of people sneaking in.

Already the NHS is having to coordinate with the DWP because they have already invited people who are carers and recieve carers allowance. Did that slow things down? Nope. So to say they cannot coordinate similarly with headteachers via the DFE, or via the police Federation is, quite simply, bullshit. Both of those organisations could do all the work for the NHS. I do believe JCVI are lying to the public when they hide behind "possible delays" as a reason why they have not done this.

As I have said several times, you would be adding no more than 1.5m to the 7m being done in the 40-49 age group (likely to be a lot less than that). The booking system opens appointments based on vaccine availability and capacity to vaccinate; there was literally no problem in adding these keyworkers.

At worst this would delay my age group starting by a few days, extend the 40-49 vaccination period by a few days. To reiterate; the organisation of teachers and police is such that there is absolutely no reason why organising their vaccination should delay anything.

Now, if you wanted to do supermarket workers, taxi drivers, delivery drivers etc then that would be a nightmare logistically; there are no equivalent central records nor organisations to put them forward and organise candidates. Doing so would significantly delay the vaccine rollout.

My belief is that police and teachers have been overlooked, not because of potential delays (that simply isn't true) but because JCVI is either concerned over unfairness in targeting some keyworkers and not others or is afraid of backlash over perceived unfairness by those workers. That will be the root of their decision.

The consequences of that are obvious; we are going to have a police force that is stretched as the country begins to reopen, and we are going to have teachers absent through illness or self isolation, and possibly instances of year groups having to rotate where several teachers are self isolating at the same time. JCVI have made the choice that this is preferable to the alternative.

Well, that's the decision. All we can do is debate it now and ultimately get on with it.

As for your comparison, a 25 year old teacher should be at considerably higher risk than a 49 year old BAME unemployed person. We have no evidence that BAME are genetically more vulnerable (to my knowledge) and your unemployed BAME has no workplace in which to put themselves in danger. Unless they behave unwisely, there is no reason why they should contract it, yet your 25 year old teacher (her class gives her no genetic advantage) is in far more danger of contracting it. You have to buy a ticket to die of COVID.
Her class does give her an advantage, as does her gender. It also was one example, there are millions more to pick. That's why a simple and effective solution makes sense.

Again your list is subjective and assigns worth to people based on the job they do. I'm not particularly interested in saying person a is more valuable than person b.

A factory, shop worker, farmer etc. ensures we are fed, clothed, housed, have access to water, heating, power etc. Why is your job more valuable than theirs?

A simple hierarchy of needs shows police are less valuable than the above and teachers even less so.
 

Pope John XXIII

Vital Football Legend
Her class does give her an advantage, as does her gender. It also was one example, there are millions more to pick. That's why a simple and effective solution makes sense.

Again your list is subjective and assigns worth to people based on the job they do. I'm not particularly interested in saying person a is more valuable than person b.

A factory, shop worker, farmer etc. ensures we are fed, clothed, housed, have access to water, heating, power etc. Why is your job more valuable than theirs?

A simple hierarchy of needs shows police are less valuable than the above and teachers even less so.
Lol, explain the genes that make you middle class. Did I gain those genes when I bought a dishwasher?

I'm not really sure how this reply responds to anything I actually said in my post.

At no point have I talked about any job being any more valuable than another. That said, the police are far more important than shop workers, taxi drivers or any of the other keyworkers we could name. Sorry, they just are. Once again, it's not their lives that are more important, it's the fulfillment of their jobs. It is completely up to you if you want to consider a supermarket worker, taxi driver or factory worker to be more important than a teacher. I won't debate that with you either way.

I wrote in detail as to why I have argued for three particular groups; one of those reasons being that they fulfill national priorities that will not be as well fulfilled while they are not vaccinated. We have had no problem with lack of supermarket staff, delivery drivers, factory workers, and I think we can get by with the taxi drivers we have. But we do have problems when police are out of action, and this government has made a hell of a fuss about the necessity of children being in school and getting their education.

The second thing is, to go with those national priorities, the ease with which those two groups could be done.

JCVI have decided otherwise. I think they have been disingenuous if not slightly dishonest in explaining their reasoning, but it's done, it's there, and I shall continue teaching my classes while I am allowed to and wait until July
 

Calvin Plummer

Vital Football Legend
Lol, explain the genes that make you middle class. Did I gain those genes when I bought a dishwasher?

I'm not really sure how this reply responds to anything I actually said in my post.

At no point have I talked about any job being any more valuable than another. That said, the police are far more important than shop workers, taxi drivers or any of the other keyworkers we could name. Sorry, they just are. Once again, it's not their lives that are more important, it's the fulfillment of their jobs. It is completely up to you if you want to consider a supermarket worker, taxi driver or factory worker to be more important than a teacher. I won't debate that with you either way.

I wrote in detail as to why I have argued for three particular groups; one of those reasons being that they fulfill national priorities that will not be as well fulfilled while they are not vaccinated. We have had no problem with lack of supermarket staff, delivery drivers, factory workers, and I think we can get by with the taxi drivers we have. But we do have problems when police are out of action, and this government has made a hell of a fuss about the necessity of children being in school and getting their education.

The second thing is, to go with those national priorities, the ease with which those two groups could be done.

JCVI have decided otherwise. I think they have been disingenuous if not slightly dishonest in explaining their reasoning, but it's done, it's there, and I shall continue teaching my classes while I am allowed to and wait until July
The priority of teaching does not take precedence over eating.

You're still playing games of ranking people by the jobs they do.
 

Apollyon

Vital Football Legend
Just had a weird poo

started off solid, ended up being splattery

Im really starting to worry about my health. I have ordered a peloton, hopefully that will get me back on track
 

Pope John XXIII

Vital Football Legend
The priority of teaching does not take precedence over eating.

You're still playing games of ranking people by the jobs they do.
That's your view, but the police really do trump everyone other than the NHS.

I am also disappointed that those with learning difficulties don't seem to have been included in the new lists, unless I've missed something.
 

Calvin Plummer

Vital Football Legend
That's your view, but the police really do trump everyone other than the NHS.

I am also disappointed that those with learning difficulties don't seem to have been included in the new lists, unless I've missed something.
Not my view, it's pretty basic hierarchy of needs. I can live without the police, I can't without food, water and shelter. How exactly do you think the police trumps those basic needs? Yay I'm dead of starvation but luckily people can get speeding tickets?
 

Pope John XXIII

Vital Football Legend
Not my view, it's pretty basic hierarchy of needs. I can live without the police, I can't without food, water and shelter. How exactly do you think the police trumps those basic needs? Yay I'm dead of starvation but luckily people can get speeding tickets?
We are talking about supermarket workers.

If they feed you as well, then you clearly go to a more expensive and kinky supermarket than I do.

We are also talking about low skilled jobs that take no specialist training and, callous as it sounds, will always have people who can step in and do them.