#COVID19 | Page 417 | Vital Football

#COVID19

No.
Excess deaths is a much better method, and still possibly an underestimate on account of reduced deaths from other transmissible diseases that were also reduced thanks to lockdown. E.g. seasonal flu.

Agreed, but this is only valid at the end of the year. For example the 7 weeks excess deaths is below the 5 year average. So for accuracy now we can say there are 41k COVID-19 related deaths.
 
There y'go. I've highlighted the important bit.

I have never commented on the relative efficacy of masks over hand washing or distancing. I agree it is an effort to get people out.


You don't need a mask to shop online. Woollies has been closed in the high st for five years. See, I can be a smartarse too.

The Woolies was a recurring theme that you love me for, REMEMBER!
 
But they are. People think it offers them protection, it doesn’t it protects others and only if they are worn correctly, which a casual look around people in Woolworths, shows the majority are not.
Social distancing and regular hand washing is far more effective. It’s an economical decision to get people out and spending money.

General opinion here is that masks help even when fitted incorrectly but every little helps as the old lady said when she peed in the sea. Some of our bigger stores prohibit entry without a mask and I find that annoying when I've got a quid to spend but no mask in pocket.
We do seem to be getting results here slowly but even at the best it's going to be a slow job.
 
Here again itto, just like a bad smell, I can't stop, glad about your hair, presume it's not grey yet.
I wasn't joking, deadly serious in fact, I thought your Govt had made a right ballsup but wasn't sure if my facts were correct since all of our UK news is secondhand. Other than that I agree all of your post.
I learned today that the new outbreak in New Zealand is a different strain to the old one, I've no idea whether this might involve a different vaccine, hope not, I have no faith in Putin. It's going to take quite a while to get topside of this in any case and I hate to think of the few years that will follow, no quick fix possible.
In Sydney we still have pubs, restaurants etc open but subject to Police checks and heavy penalties when caught out, and on the face of it seems to be working. Keeps some of the population a bit happier.
Not too bad but certainly much greyer that I'd like, ORF!

I'm actually much more optimistic than you. I think we will have a proven vaccine at the end of the year, or maybe spring, and that it will be rolled out swiftly. (The unproven vaccine in Russia is basically going straight to a large scale trial in the population. That has all sorts of dangerous outcomes but it will be super informative for the rest of the world!)

The late middle aged, elderly and otherwise infirm will get first dibs because they are the ones most at risk of severe problems. There will be enough for them in quick time. My guess is that next summer will be as close to business as usual as we will get. Obviously the world will have changed quite a bit.

The chance of mutation is a worry but this can be overhyped. I haven't seen the story you are referring to about the new strain in NZ but that isn't the cause of a new outbreak. There is no immunity in NZ to the original! It's more of a worry in places like London where, with current practices, we might be nearing a sort of 'functional' herd immunity. A new strain would cock that up.

Wrt to the vaccine, it has to have mutated in a specific way that renders the vaccine useless, which requires a change specifically in the part the vaccine is targeting. That is a far cry from a detectable change in any part that you could use to call it a new strain.
 
Agreed, but this is only valid at the end of the year. For example the 7 weeks excess deaths is below the 5 year average. So for accuracy now we can say there are 41k COVID-19 related deaths.
No that doesn't work.

If you and I killed every human in earth today (sometimes I think this is a decent idea..) and counted how many excess deaths there were in a hundred years from now, the answer would be zero. Like our killing spree never happened. We would have killed 7.7 billion people this afternoon (and, to be fair, I have a few other things I need to get done). However, the day after our rampage, the global excess death rate would be negative to the tune of about 165,000 people because the 60m people who would have been expected to die this coming 12 months would be dead already.

If we only killed the elderly, as this virus does most effectively, we wouldn't have to wait 100 years, maybe only one.
 
Not too bad but certainly much greyer that I'd like, ORF!

I'm actually much more optimistic than you. I think we will have a proven vaccine at the end of the year, or maybe spring, and that it will be rolled out swiftly. (The unproven vaccine in Russia is basically going straight to a large scale trial in the population. That has all sorts of dangerous outcomes but it will be super informative for the rest of the world!)

The late middle aged, elderly and otherwise infirm will get first dibs because they are the ones most at risk of severe problems. There will be enough for them in quick time. My guess is that next summer will be as close to business as usual as we will get. Obviously the world will have changed quite a bit.

The chance of mutation is a worry but this can be overhyped. I haven't seen the story you are referring to about the new strain in NZ but that isn't the cause of a new outbreak. There is no immunity in NZ to the original! It's more of a worry in places like London where, with current practices, we might be nearing a sort of 'functional' herd immunity. A new strain would cock that up.

Wrt to the vaccine, it has to have mutated in a specific way that renders the vaccine useless, which requires a change specifically in the part the vaccine is targeting. That is a far cry from a detectable change in any part that you could use to call it a new strain.

Can't argue with any of that itto, must make sure I get my name down for first dibs with the vaccine. If I find out any info on the NZ business I'll put it on here.
 
Not too bad but certainly much greyer that I'd like, ORF!

I'm actually much more optimistic than you. I think we will have a proven vaccine at the end of the year, or maybe spring, and that it will be rolled out swiftly. (The unproven vaccine in Russia is basically going straight to a large scale trial in the population. That has all sorts of dangerous outcomes but it will be super informative for the rest of the world!)

The late middle aged, elderly and otherwise infirm will get first dibs because they are the ones most at risk of severe problems. There will be enough for them in quick time. My guess is that next summer will be as close to business as usual as we will get. Obviously the world will have changed quite a bit.

The chance of mutation is a worry but this can be overhyped. I haven't seen the story you are referring to about the new strain in NZ but that isn't the cause of a new outbreak. There is no immunity in NZ to the original! It's more of a worry in places like London where, with current practices, we might be nearing a sort of 'functional' herd immunity. A new strain would cock that up.

Wrt to the vaccine, it has to have mutated in a specific way that renders the vaccine useless, which requires a change specifically in the part the vaccine is targeting. That is a far cry from a detectable change in any part that you could use to call it a new strain.
The big worry is going to be whether it crosses the species barrier again and is found in large numbers in animals. The ramifications of this are frightening as it can keep crossing and mutating at a rate that we would never keep up with.
 
The big worry is going to be whether it crosses the species barrier again and is found in large numbers in animals. The ramifications of this are frightening as it can keep crossing and mutating at a rate that we would never keep up with.

No evidence that this is likely. In fact it is mutating much slower than common cold and annual flu.
 
No evidence that this is likely. In fact it is mutating much slower than common cold and annual flu.
There have been the odd report that it has crossed the species barrier including a report that it was found in a house cat.

Not sure what the end result of these reports has been but remember it has already crossed once if the source of the pandemic is correct.

Whether it already has or will again is a different matter and it is one of the things being monitored.
 
No that doesn't work.

If you and I killed every human in earth today (sometimes I think this is a decent idea..) and counted how many excess deaths there were in a hundred years from now, the answer would be zero. Like our killing spree never happened. We would have killed 7.7 billion people this afternoon (and, to be fair, I have a few other things I need to get done). However, the day after our rampage, the global excess death rate would be negative to the tune of about 165,000 people because the 60m people who would have been expected to die this coming 12 months would be dead already.

If we only killed the elderly, as this virus does most effectively, we wouldn't have to wait 100 years, maybe only one.

Agreed, but the figures of excess mortality is only comparable with the same time frame if we are counting all causes.
It’s rather macabre talking about stats like this, but many who have unfortunately succumbed to this, would have not seen the year out anyway. Looking at the latest figures only 2% of all deaths are COVID so a sober conclusion is that it’s possibly done it’s worst in the U.K. I do believe that In the future, when this is compared internationally, the %age of COVID mortality will be similar in counties of similar sizes/economies, etc.
I do agree with hindsight many things could have been done better, but I think we are doing well now; the quarantining of travellers, local lockdowns and the like seem to be keeping a lid on it.
 
It’s rather macabre talking about stats like this, but many who have unfortunately succumbed to this, would have not seen the year out anyway. Looking at the latest figures only 2% of all deaths are COVID so a sober conclusion is that it’s possibly done it’s worst in the U.K.
Let's hope so.
 
I do believe that In the future, when this is compared internationally, the %age of COVID mortality will be similar in counties of similar sizes/economies, etc.
Really? Optimistic.
I think we will still be very close to the bottom of the pile. And that's despite the advanced warning we had over those other nations. Many of them would really have to do something dramatically wrong to catch up with us. Those that are close didn't have the benefit of hindsight that we squandered.
Deadly mismanagement.
 
I do agree with hindsight many things could have been done better, but I think we are doing well now; the quarantining of travellers, local lockdowns and the like seem to be keeping a lid on it.
Fingers crossed.
We also have better medical care now. Some people do learn.
 
Worth remembering that, even if you take the cold view of just looking at the numbers, those who have died have done so alone or in the presence of only medical staff in full protective gear.
Once dead, most of their grieving loved ones were not allowed to attend their funerals. That's the harsh reality of this disease and it has been exacerbated by voting in dangerous clowns.
 
Nursing home mismanagement with multi employment of agency staff, low stock levels of PPE due to austerity etc are all issues that can be levelled at govt. One issue that isn’t raised very often is the recently released ONS data on number of visitors and residents coming through U.K. Border controls were over 6M, between Jan and end March 2020. This is a significant factor as to why such a small country, heavily populated had such a surge of covid cases. This is also the reason why U.K. is locking down travel from any country with high rates.

Are medical staff getting better at treating, have the most vulnerable already taken a big hit or is covid19 less virulent? Although pillars one and two, hospital and community infections remain worryingly high and some are becoming quite ill, ICU and death rates have fallen quite markedly. Many of the deaths reported this week are of the ill first diagnosed several weeks/months ago, or actually died Several weeks ago but registration has been delayed for genuine reasons.

Why are the public getting such mixed data. Given data we can make our own decisions. ONS tells us that the rate of new cases is estimated at over 3000 per day. ZOE the research app, which has been consistent throughout, estimates 1,600 pd. quite a difference.

For the fourth week running more people have died of flu and more people have died of pneumonia in the U.K. than of Covid19. 3 times as many people have died of TB. No body mentions this. Yes covid was and is a terrible virus but some perspective is required.
 
BCG has a relatively low success rate, but the point being, which I’m sure you understand, is that according to the WHO 1/4 of the world’s population have TB, but the population is free to travel without proof of inoculation.

Not enough data and tb not as infectious as covid (although we are not sure), but yea i reckon we could be headed that way.