#COVID19 | Page 400 | Vital Football

#COVID19

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You are mixing issues a bit.

We haven't finished our first wave. We pretty much have. As I stated 'expected deaths are at normal rate.
> We are nearly there but remember that we aren't seeing as many deaths from other communicable diseases.

You are confusing not getting it with being asymptomatic. Not the same! No, I am really not.
>Yes, fair enough. It was 20% on the Diamond Princess.

There are still distancing measures in place.
R is rising in London. Possibly above 1. Not seen this. Can you link it?
> Newspaper article linking to govt data:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-coronavirus-r-value-above-1-a4488566.html

A small percentage of even Londoners and NuYoikers have had it, unfortunately. They are nowhere near herd immunity. Public transport is still sparsely populated (in the main) and people are wearing masks.
Almost nobody that has been shielding correctly have had it (homes notwithstanding).
It hasn't gone away. There are probably towards 1500 news cases every day. 530 yesterday
>Positive tests...


>One month ago it was thought that about 5% of the UK population have had it. If we accept the figure that 20% can get it, we are looking at three more of these before we are out the other side. Deaths might be lower even with that in mind if we think that the majority of those who have died were old and those who are left are less likely to die. That's pretty much what we have to hope for now.
 
The problem is I am currently being assessed to decide just how bad my asthma is. An x-ray and CT scan have ruled out anything more insidious but they are still in the process of determining.

I am happy enough to wear the mask while shopping until I am told I shouldn’t be going at all.
Sorry to see that.

Glad they have ruled out the worst of options. All the best.
 
Also there has been no detectable excess mortality since week 24 in any age group or region. We are at week 28.
This is definitely a reassuring graph. It has been achieved thanks to lockdown. That doesn't mean we are out of the woods and cannot spring back up if/when restrictions are eased.
It is still widespread and I don't have much faith in the test trace isolate scheme. Do you?
 
You are mixing issues a bit.

We haven't finished our first wave. We pretty much have. As I stated 'expected deaths are at normal rate.
> We are nearly there but remember that we aren't seeing as many deaths from other communicable diseases.

You are confusing not getting it with being asymptomatic. Not the same! No, I am really not.
>Yes, fair enough. It was 20% on the Diamond Princess.

There are still distancing measures in place.
R is rising in London. Possibly above 1. Not seen this. Can you link it?
> Newspaper article linking to govt data:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-coronavirus-r-value-above-1-a4488566.html

A small percentage of even Londoners and NuYoikers have had it, unfortunately. They are nowhere near herd immunity. Public transport is still sparsely populated (in the main) and people are wearing masks.
Almost nobody that has been shielding correctly have had it (homes notwithstanding).
It hasn't gone away. There are probably towards 1500 news cases every day. 530 yesterday
>Positive tests...


>One month ago it was thought that about 5% of the UK population have had it. If we accept the figure that 20% can get it, we are looking at three more of these before we are out the other side. Deaths might be lower even with that in mind if we think that the majority of those who have died were old and those who are left are less likely to die. That's pretty much what we have to hope for now.

I saw that regarding the R0 but it was out of date. There is nothing more recent?
 
There's a fair bit of guesswork among those comments and some of it could be quite misleading if you value your health and possibly life, particularly if you happen to be an old fogie. A week ago I thought we had it beaten in Oz and then it erupted in Melbourne and it's taken hold to the point where the authorities there have put in the hard measures again but too late as it's made its way to Sydney where to a large extent it started in a pub and was able to spread from there. It's not surprising how getting a few pints under your belt can affect your thinking. Or lack of it. And now we're in trouble again with some places shut down and other restrictions imposed, and all of us in nasty tempers. And we're right back to square one which still involves a fair bit of guesswork not helped in some countries by lousy govt or the likes of Trump. He's not the only idiot trying to lead his flock either.
What doesn't help is that West Australia and the Northern Territory which were all clear a few days ago have new cases as well and at the moment no one knows the cause. There's no doubt in my mind that this will go on here until the end of the year and quite possibly longer, I hate to think how a primitive country is going to deal with it.
At the moment our govt is helping out with payments to folk out of a job and there's an awful lot of them, it's due to end mainly in September and no one has any idea what's going to happen then but knowing that a lot of folk have big fat mortgages based on the good times we will be in real trouble.
 
This is definitely a reassuring graph. It has been achieved thanks to lockdown. That doesn't mean we are out of the woods and cannot spring back up if/when restrictions are eased.
It is still widespread and I don't have much faith in the test trace isolate scheme. Do you?
We are not out of the woods totally, so along with the easing of the restrictions it is the correct time to mandate the use of masks, IMO.
I'm not to sure re track and trace so am unqualified to comment.
 
We are not out of the woods totally, so along with the easing of the restrictions it is the correct time to mandate the use of masks, IMO.
I'm not to sure re track and trace so am unqualified to comment.

Just to add it does reek of reactionary governance.
There's no advice for the mask, vis-à-vis for how long this will be in place, what type of mask, what shops, etc.
What is funny to see though is people wearing them in cars when they are on their own. This is like wearing a condom in bed when you sleep alone!
 
So far there is nothing to suggest that there will be a big rise in infections, either now or in the winter. In London with a population of 9 million there have been 269 new positive tests in the last week. The West Midlands there was one death across the whole region yesterday.

London’s cases started to flatten off before the effects of lock-down and have continued to fall despite fears about, demonstrations and the like.

The only likely conclusion is that most of those who were susceptible have now had the virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now

Stick to thinking the 1970s was the pinnacle of cuisine and trolling on other threads. Your nonsense here isn't helpful.
 
We are not out of the woods totally, so along with the easing of the restrictions it is the correct time to mandate the use of masks, IMO.
I'm not to sure re track and trace so am unqualified to comment.
The "correct time"? It is WAY too late for masks to be at least encouraged and there was still 'debate' about it even yesterday.
This conservative leave government has been undermining trust in experts for five years and part of that insidious rubbish was to sew the seeds of doubt about the efficacy of masks. this was only because they didn't have enough to go around but rather than taking the grown up option of admitting that and saying they will be mandatory when the supply lines are functioning properly, they decide to say "well, scientists can't decide whether they're any good or not". A blind man could see how effective they have been across the world for decades and it makes logical sense too. The video above makes it abundantly clear. Why the hell is this a partisan issue? Because people don't have the capacity to take the view that they might be right about some things but wrong about others. Obviously it is even worse in the states but these 'leaders' are cut from the same cloth.

If they hadn't ignored cygnus, they might have ensured we had a better stockpile. The only thing we can be thankful to brexit for is that it would have been even worse if they hadn't shat themselves about a lack of PPE in the case of no deal brexit cliff edge. That, however, remains a looming threat and the pitifully small stockpile we did have is now gone. They are a bunch of bastards.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now

Stick to thinking the 1970s was the pinnacle of cuisine and trolling on other threads. Your nonsense here isn't helpful.

m/world/2020/jul/14/action-to-stop-winter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now

Stick to thinking the 1970s was the pinnacle of cuisine and trolling on other threads. Your nonsense here isn't helpful.[/QUOTE]

That estimate is the worst case scenario, much like Ferguson's 500,000.
But you know that, don't you?
 
I said "There are still distancing measures in place.
R is rising in London. Possibly above 1. "

All that is perfectly true and involves no guessing on my part. The confidence intervals are quite large.

East_of_England
Estimated R = 0.96
Lower bound of the estimate = 0.75
Upper bound of the estimate = 1.2

London
Estimated R = 0.91
Lower bound of the estimate = 0.68
Upper bound of the estimate = 1.16


These are higher than they have been recently.
R is near as dammit 1, so it is really quite likely that it is higher than 1. About 50:50, in fact. Or should we say 52:48 for old times sake?
 
There is a likelihood that most of those who were susceptible to Covid, have now had it. For some reason the majority of people do not appear to get it at all - maybe 80%, looking at the best estimates of cities most severely affected, London, New York etc. None of these have had a second phase of increased transmission once lock-down measures have been relaxed. This is despite crowded public transport, population density, etc.

Hopefully therefore, because we have been one of the worst affected countries we should now in a better position than most going forward.

Look at research on T cells.
 
I said "There are still distancing measures in place.
R is rising in London. Possibly above 1. "

All that is perfectly true and involves no guessing on my part. The confidence intervals are quite large.

East_of_England
Estimated R = 0.96
Lower bound of the estimate = 0.75
Upper bound of the estimate = 1.2

London
Estimated R = 0.91
Lower bound of the estimate = 0.68
Upper bound of the estimate = 1.16


These are higher than they have been recently.
R is near as dammit 1, so it is really quite likely that it is higher than 1. About 50:50, in fact. Or should we say 52:48 for old times sake?

From your link... "Over the last week there is no evidence of any further change in the number of daily new infections"

Also..."Our real-time model has been further updated to allow higher susceptibility to infection in the over-75s. The modelling focusses on regional data and we no longer report an estimate of Rt for England.

Yet you are framing that it is rising without stating the above. I know you have an anti-government agenda, but framing facts to fit, is not that clever.
The partisan massaging of facts would be funny if it wasn't so serious.