#COVID19 | Page 306 | Vital Football

#COVID19

Polly 433

Vital Squad Member
This is the rest:

Mr Annan, from Blueskiesresearch.org.uk, said an earlier lockdown would have been shorter and had less economic impact.
In a related blog, he wrote: "Implementing the lockdown one week earlier would have saved about 30,000 lives in the current wave (based on official numbers, which are themselves a substantial underestimate).
"It would also have made for a shorter, cheaper, less damaging lockdown in economic terms."
Modellers said the calculations showed that even small changes in the timing of interventions could make a significant difference.
Dr Kit Yates, senior lecturer in mathematical biology at the University of Bath, said: "In the early stages of an epidemic, the number of cases is growing exponentially. This means even a small change in the rate of spread or in the timing of interventions can make a big difference a short period of time down the line.
"It is clear that, had we locked down sooner, we would have reduced the spread earlier, limiting the number of cases and consequently the number of deaths.
"The other benefit of locking down earlier would have been bringing cases under control sooner and potentially allowing the release of lockdown sooner."
The modelling was revealed on Radio 4's More or Less programme, which highlighted differences in the testing regimes used by different countries earlier in the epidemic, with Germany carrying out 50,000 tests daily at a time when the UK could not even achieve that weekly.
As a result, at the point both countries entered lockdown, Germany had identified around 27,000 cases, when the UK had confirmed just 9,000, researchers said.
Locking down earlier could have saved lives. Or would they all have not believed the data and gone to the beach at the height of an epidemic? Would the British public have adhered to guidance unless significant death total? Evidence suggests a lot do think it’s a holiday.
 

paz1967

Vital Football Hero
We probably do have an accurate idea of this risk/cost.
What we don't yet know is the risk of reopening schools. These data should start rolling in soon as we watch other countries around the world return to school.

Horrible decisions to make but nobody can yet say which is worse when we only have one of the two things we need to compare.
thats flawed tho maybe. its the virus leaving schools thats the issue and any school ive ever driven past is usually chockoblock with parents suvs jamming the whole neighborhood and kids everywhere. Perfect viral spaces
 

paz1967

Vital Football Hero
So our of the countries worst performing at coronavirus (most cases) we have USA, Russia, Brazil, Spain, UK, Italy.

There's a lot of right wing crazy nutjobs in those governments, huh?

Maybe Trump, Putin, Johnson and Bolsonaro should take their skills at playing of the fears of the public and use them to help their people for once.
i dont think they have skills. what they have is tory media
 

paz1967

Vital Football Hero
Seems this work was done by Annan, a climate modeller by trade.

All free VVV


https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2020/05/12/the-human-cost-of-delaying-lockdown/


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/19/uk-government-pandemic
"The climate modeller James Annan has used his analytical methods to show what would have happened if the UK government had imposed its lockdown a week earlier. Starting it on 16 March, rather than 23 March, his modelling suggests, would by now have saved around 30,000 lives, reducing the rate of illness and death from coronavirus roughly by a factor of five. "

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065227v1

Its as i said months ago, good models are created using facts and these were created with guesses. Our 'educated' % are fkn morons. We should have a new national I.Q test and see the truth
 

in_the_top_one

Vital Football Hero
Locking down earlier could have saved lives. Or would they all have not believed the data and gone to the beach at the height of an epidemic? Would the British public have adhered to guidance unless significant death total? Evidence suggests a lot do think it’s a holiday.
I just think that's a weak argument. It has worked in many other nations. We could have reassured ourselves we weren't being duped by looking at wuhan, Italy, Iran and comparing our restrictions with those all over Europe.

It is true though that there has been a consistent erosion of trust in The Establishment. Trouble is, when we're in times like this, we NEED trust in the establishment. Sigh.
 
I just think that's a weak argument. It has worked in many other nations. We could have reassured ourselves we weren't being duped by looking at wuhan, Italy, Iran and comparing our restrictions with those all over Europe.

It is true though that there has been a consistent erosion of trust in The Establishment. Trouble is, when we're in times like this, we NEED trust in the establishment. Sigh.
Someone clever has pointed out that govt is actually important and when people let the clowns run the circus this is what you get.

No one can be expected to trust, faced with the level of incompetence we have been treated to.

Given the numbers out today imo its back to govt of national unity for 12 months and then a general election. To say we are in deep deep shit would be an understatement. I dont think the country can take too much more of bojo's incoherence, the damage is already unprecedented.
 

in_the_top_one

Vital Football Hero
Someone clever has pointed out that govt is actually important and when people let the clowns run the circus this is what you get.

No one can be expected to trust, faced with the level of incompetence we have been treated to.

Given the numbers out today imo its back to govt of national unity for 12 months and then a general election. To say we are in deep deep shit would be an understatement. I dont think the country can take too much more of bojo's incoherence, the damage is already unprecedented.
Have you noticed the same people who tell us that the British public wouldn't understand, wouldn't believe our wouldn't adhere to a lockdown that was clearly in the interests of Britain are exactly the same people who were telling us to Believe In Britain and to stop talking the country down for the last few years? Right up until March?
 

Pope John XXIII

Vital Football Legend
Also this is what real investigative journalism looks like, actually holding the Government to account. Not fucking Piers Morgan on twitter.
But Cummings won't resign. He won't care, Johnson won't dare; I don't think a thought goes through Johnson's head without it being told him by Cummings first.

They will brazen it out, knowing full well their baying Mail reading fan base will show faux outrage at a scientist breaking the lockdown and no interest at all when a member of his government does it.
 

in_the_top_one

Vital Football Hero
Some mention of the child but no mention of Dom's trip to Durham in this little piece he wrote about life in lockdown with the virus.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/spectator-writers-in-lockdown-by-the-people-stuck-with-them

Also, what a bunch of horrible insights into the gang this is. Toby Young, dearie me. They tried to give him an important job once. Shocking decision.
 

mao tse tung

Vital Football Hero
But Cummings won't resign. He won't care, Johnson won't dare; I don't think a thought goes through Johnson's head without it being told him by Cummings first.

They will brazen it out, knowing full well their baying Mail reading fan base will show faux outrage at a scientist breaking the lockdown and no interest at all when a member of his government does it.
There are quite a few back bench Tories who despise Cummings: you would think they will not get too many opportunities to make their voices heard, this could be one of them.

Then there is good old Matt Hancock.

Will the Right Horrible Member for West Sussex be anywhere near as forthright on this subject, when he addresses the media, as he was when Dr Henderson was hung out to dry?

Will he be "speechless", like when he was interviewed by Sky on May 5th; or will he see fit to describe Dom's actions as "extraordinary", like he did Ferguson's; maybe he will have a view on whether the Police should prosecute; he did not hold back when asked the same question regarding Dr Henderson.

Maybe our resident Tory apologists could put us all straight on this one.
 

Lienking

Vital 1st Team Regular
Have you noticed the same people who tell us that the British public wouldn't understand, wouldn't believe our wouldn't adhere to a lockdown that was clearly in the interests of Britain are exactly the same people who were telling us to Believe In Britain and to stop talking the country down for the last few years? Right up until March?
I know everyone on here loves the political point scoring, but if you believe Tory/Leavers are older, it's pretty obvious that as a general rule they are isolating (for obvious reasons). It's actually the Labour/Remainers who are the main ones who are breaking the lockdown, if you go by age.

Young adults most likely age group to be infected with coronavirus, new data shows
Scientists said the findings reflected the fact young people were most likely to socialise and possibly to flout lockdown advice

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-latest-young-men-lockdown-rules-2848001