Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day. | Page 76 | Vital Football

Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day.

More analysis of the Oxford trial results....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/business/coronavirus-vaccine-astrazeneca-oxford.html

When their published results say the double dose regimen average from two different trials in the UK and Brazil produce an efficacy of 62% why would a professor from Edinburgh University I think say that the initial dose provides “up to 80% protection”....unless that is 80% of the 62% efficacy.

There is lots of chatter about not being able to compare the results to those of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines without giving any details as to why with Sara Jarvis the media’s favourite doctor saying it’s like comparing Apples and Oranges but no details as to why.

I’m not a fan of the NY Times but this article does at least explain why people, especially the US medical community are uncertain about the claims for the Oxford vaccine given the way the results seem to be being manipulated as each flaw in the process is highlighted.
 
The statement from the government that the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine gives only a marginal boost in protection and can therefore be delayed to 12 weeks flies in the face of the published Pfizer results that state the efficacy of the first dose is only 52%....I can’t help thinking that we are being lied to.
 
Harry-Kari said:
The statement from the government that the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine gives only a marginal boost in protection and can therefore be delayed to 12 weeks flies in the face of the published Pfizer results that state the efficacy of the first dose is only 52%....I can’t help thinking that we are being lied to.
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The lack of clarity in what is being communicated on the vaccines certainly is worrying, especially given the growing anti vax trend. However it must be stressed that there are no concerns over the safety of taking these vaccines.

I'd be all for accepting a 'weaker' vaccine if it meant that more people could get it sooner, if the modelling backs up that this is the best way to start to get this into remission for the entire population. However if we take this route, I would want to know if it is possible in the future when there is a greater vaccine capacity to get a 2nd vaccine that can boost efficacy up to the 90% mark that was quoted for example for Pfizer.
 
This sums up my feelings exactly..
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDA_UK/status/1344641247806435330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1344641247806435330%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesun.co.uk%2Fnews%2F13618915%2Fdelaying-second-covid-jab-dose-huge-problems-gps-warn%2

I also posted another link earlier which seems to have been removed for some reason.

VanTam is pulling statistics out of the air that contradict the published results for the Oxford Vaccine and the advice and statistics on single jab Pfizer from Pfizer themselves.

He is quoted as saying that the Oxford vaccine gives 80% efficacy after 4 weeks of the first jab when the published results show only 62% for two jabs...where did that new information come from in anything published so far and if true why does the efficacy go down to 62% after two jabs...we are told by him to beware of false claims that threaten the take-up of the vaccine...he could start by coming clean on what is actually going on.

I’m not going to post anymore on this topic because it is plain that we are being mislead and that in itself undermines the trust in the vaccines, particularly the Oxford one, because who given a choice would want something that gives only 62% protection versus something that gives 90-95% protection? I suspect we are about to find out what it will be like for third world countries managing this pandemic.
 
Harry-Kari said:
This sums up my feelings exactly..
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDA_UK/status/1344641247806435330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1344641247806435330%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesun.co.uk%2Fnews%2F13618915%2Fdelaying-second-covid-jab-dose-huge-problems-gps-warn%2

I also posted another link earlier which seems to have been removed for some reason.

VanTam is pulling statistics out of the air that contradict the published results for the Oxford Vaccine and the advice and statistics on single jab Pfizer from Pfizer themselves.

He is quoted as saying that the Oxford vaccine gives 80% efficacy after 4 weeks of the first jab when the published results show only 62% for two jabs...where did that new information come from in anything published so far and if true why does the efficacy go down to 62% after two jabs...we are told by him to beware of false claims that threaten the take-up of the vaccine...he could start by coming clean on what is actually going on.

I’m not going to post anymore on this topic because it is plain that we are being mislead and that in itself undermines the trust in the vaccines, particularly the Oxford one, because who given a choice would want something that gives only 62% protection versus something that gives 90-95% protection? I suspect we are about to find out what it will be like for third world countries managing this pandemic.
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As I said, there are as yet unpublished further data from the contyinuing Phase III trials, fingers crossed they'll be shared soon.

There is no doubt that the scientists of SAGE have given their advice based on what they can see, not what we can see, there has been alot of irresponsible comments from other who should know better - but it's true it is a trade off, if the first jab offers up 12-20 week immunity and the follow can still work at 12 weeks, it will be a correct call, if it doesn't (as infections will show, it was a gamble that didn't pay off).

Part of the decision making is to try and stop this third wave as it's now once again with this new variant pretty much out of control.

It's been said to me we have a short window in which to to try and stop it with spreading the jabs we have as quickly as we can - if that strategy works, then it was a good call, if it doesn't and the third wave doesn't slow, the NHS and the country will be pretty screwed.

The thinking is to stop this mutated strain before it mutates again as already some scientists think the South African mutation may render the vaccine virtually useless and althouh it may take only 6 weeks to start producing another vaccine - it could well mean we lose the race between stopping it and it mutating again.

So, for now, I think they've made the right call - but no question it could well be a wrong one as well.
 
Spursex said:
As I said, there are as yet unpublished further data from the contyinuing Phase III trials, fingers crossed they'll be shared soon.

There is no doubt that the scientists of SAGE have given their advice based on what they can see, not what we can see, there has been alot of irresponsible comments from other who should know better - but it's true it is a trade off, if the first jab offers up 12-20 week immunity and the follow can still work at 12 weeks, it will be a correct call, if it doesn't (as infections will show, it was a gamble that didn't pay off).

Part of the decision making is to try and stop this third wave as it's now once again with this new variant pretty much out of control.

It's been said to me we have a short window in which to to try and stop it with spreading the jabs we have as quickly as we can - if that strategy works, then it was a good call, if it doesn't and the third wave doesn't slow, the NHS and the country will be pretty screwed.

The thinking is to stop this mutated strain before it mutates again as already some scientists think the South African mutation may render the vaccine virtually useless and althouh it may take only 6 weeks to start producing another vaccine - it could well mean we lose the race between stopping it and it mutating again.

So, for now, I think they've made the right call - but no question it could well be a wrong one as well.
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Any idea when this new data is going to be published for peer review EX...I want to know how we get 80% protection from a single dose of a vaccine that was rated 62% average on full trials....I can only see that happening one of two ways...either the ongoing trials are being changed or the existing data is being manipulated to provide ( incredibly) better results.

I can see the current narrative as a way to lessen public panic and to give the appearance of really getting to grips with the virus, but the BMA themselves are asking to see the data to support the new approach...so far nothing other than assertions.
 
Smoke and mirrors...as you say, the data is key becuase people need to be told...'don't think having the vaccine means you can do whatever you lke again'...there must be constraints that they are not giving out....quite worrying really.
 
Harry-Kari said:
Any idea when this new data is going to be published for peer review EX...I want to know how we get 80% protection from a single dose of a vaccine that was rated 62% average on full trials....I can only see that happening one of two ways...either the ongoing trials are being changed or the existing data is being manipulated to provide ( incredibly) better results.

I can see the current narrative as a way to lessen public panic and to give the appearance of really getting to grips with the virus, but the BMA themselves are asking to see the data to support the new approach...so far nothing other than assertions.
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I'm aware it's being prepared, but I have no answer to when they'll publish it. I know they pivoted their work based on the early Phase III trial data, but like you, I await the details of what's changed.

All I can honestly tell you is those who I know are working on it, remain very confident that the right decision has been made, but I'm also aware that there are those who don't yet agree and think it's a high-risk strategy.

I think the new more infectious variant is dominating thinking and actions at the moment - the thought of changing the make up of the vaccine - although said to be only a 6 week effort, may be more like 3-6 months to get the base supplies for mass production.
 
Greavswasthegreatest said:
Smoke and mirrors...as you say, the data is key becuase people need to be told...'don't think having the vaccine means you can do whatever you lke again'...there must be constraints that they are not giving out....quite worrying really.
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Yeah, I noticed on the interviews this morning, even the nurse giving the first jab skated over the question of how much protection is actually offered as did the big wig from some health body.

if what they are saying as regards the Oxford jab is that we get 80% of the 62% from the first jab, which is around 49% protectionthen I think people would be less inclined to take silly risks...but who knows.
 
Spursex said:
I'm aware it's being prepared, but I have no answer to when they'll publish it. I know they pivoted their work based on the early Phase III trial data, but like you, I await the details of what's changed.

All I can honestly tell you is those who I know are working on it, remain very confident that the right decision has been made, but I'm also aware that there are those who don't yet agree and think it's a high-risk strategy.

I think the new more infectious variant is dominating thinking and actions at the moment - the thought of changing the make up of the vaccine - although said to be only a 6 week effort, may be more like 3-6 months to get the base supplies for mass production.
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Thanks EX...very concerning all round.
 
Greavswasthegreatest said:
Smoke and mirrors...as you say, the data is key becuase people need to be told...'don't think having the vaccine means you can do whatever you lke again'...there must be constraints that they are not giving out....quite worrying really.
Click to expand...

Some people stop shedding completely who've had the vaccine(S) and some don't - as of now, no one knows why, hence the precautionary approach, what is known with any of the vaccines, if you contract it after the first dose (after the 2 week reponse period) your symptoms are likely to be less serious than they would have been otherwise; as generally it's the lungs that take the brunt of this disease and by priming your immune system so that it's ready to respond, the first line of infection i.e. your breathing tract is all ready for it.

You can see their thinking; when it's contracted the first organ that takes the hit is your lungs which reduces your oxygen levels and when that happens you have to sit in bed with an oxygen rig to lift those levels, and if it still worsens then you're off to intensive care - if it can avoid that, the pressure on the NHS will lessen dramatically if they can get the first shot to double the number of people than the old regime would have covered, so their gamble makes sense, well at least to me.

As I said, I think it's a measured gamble, but I also can't see we have too much of a choice, my local trust (Bucks) has already declared an emergency and with any more pressure, we will collapse - staff levels of sickness and absence are higher than ever, and the covid wards are full, as well as intensive care.

Doctors are pulling their hair out now as now they're having to decide who can live and who will probably die anyway, and mentally it is destroying many of them to the point of complete mental collapse.

For me, there are no clean simple answers unless we can get far bigger quantities of the vaccines quicker.
 
Last edited:
Matt Hancock ‘incredibly worried’ by South African coronavirus strain
Mr Hancock told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I’m incredibly worried about the South African variant.
/ PA
By
Ross Lydall
@RossLydall
15 minutes ago



Health Secretary Matt Hancock today said that he was “incredibly worried” about a South African variant of coronavirus amid fears that the current vaccines may not work against it.
The mutant virus is thought to be already in the UK, in addition to a “Kent variant” that is thought to have increased transmissibility by up to 70 per cent and which is responsible for many of the most recent hospitalisations.
Mr Hancock told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I’m incredibly worried about the South African variant.

“That’s why we took the action that we did to restrict all flights from South Africa, and movement from South Africa, and to insist that anybody who’s been to South Africa self isolates. This is a very, very significant problem.”

Professor Sir John Bell, of Oxford University, yesterday said that the South African variant was already in the UK and there was “a big question mark” about whether the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines would work on it.


Tick the box to be informed about Evening Standard offers and updates by email. See terms here.
However, he stressed that it could take just six weeks to develop a new jab if one was needed.

“It might take a month, or six weeks, to get a new vaccine, so everybody should stay calm. It’s going to be fine,” he said. “But we’re now in a game of cat and mouse, because these are not the only two variants we’re going to see. We’re going to see lots of variants.”
Both the UK and South African variants have changes in the “spike” protein that suggest they are more infectious.
 
Spursex said:
Matt Hancock ‘incredibly worried’ by South African coronavirus strain
Mr Hancock told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I’m incredibly worried about the South African variant.
/ PA
By
Ross Lydall
@RossLydall
15 minutes ago



Health Secretary Matt Hancock today said that he was “incredibly worried” about a South African variant of coronavirus amid fears that the current vaccines may not work against it.
The mutant virus is thought to be already in the UK, in addition to a “Kent variant” that is thought to have increased transmissibility by up to 70 per cent and which is responsible for many of the most recent hospitalisations.
Mr Hancock told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I’m incredibly worried about the South African variant.

“That’s why we took the action that we did to restrict all flights from South Africa, and movement from South Africa, and to insist that anybody who’s been to South Africa self isolates. This is a very, very significant problem.”

Professor Sir John Bell, of Oxford University, yesterday said that the South African variant was already in the UK and there was “a big question mark” about whether the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines would work on it.


Tick the box to be informed about Evening Standard offers and updates by email. See terms here.
However, he stressed that it could take just six weeks to develop a new jab if one was needed.

“It might take a month, or six weeks, to get a new vaccine, so everybody should stay calm. It’s going to be fine,” he said. “But we’re now in a game of cat and mouse, because these are not the only two variants we’re going to see. We’re going to see lots of variants.”
Both the UK and South African variants have changed in the “spike” protein that suggests they are more infectious.
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Speaking to the people involved in our roll-out, without giving specifics, they have apparent good reason to believe this variant may be ahead of our vaccine and hence the rush to get as many as possible with one dose of our vaccine asap.

If it the 'kent' variant changes, in the same way, our vaccine may well be rendered 'useless'.

Then we're back to square 1 or even -1 !
 
Just seen that the Sweat Socks, only jestin Scottish mates, are going into Full Lockdown from midnight, this I ain't jestin about.
 
I had to get fuel this morning at a BP garage which has M&S Food combined. The floor has arrows directing the customers in such a way to prevent close contact.
I went straight to the till and stood on the square on the floor as advised which is quite a bit back from the tills to allow people to exit down an aisle with arrows to the exit. I was wearing a mask.
Two scruffy looking guys not wearing masks tried to push past me on their way out. I pointed to the arrows on the floor directing them away from me. One said.....oh sorry and went where I pointed. The other pushed past my arm and said.....I'm going this way giving me a stink eye look. I walked towards
the till and said....wankers.One shop assistant laughed and the girl behind the till smiled and shrugged her shoulders.
Just imagine if I had been more forceful ( which has been known ) !!
 
Nick Real Deal said:
I had to get fuel this morning at a BP garage which has M&S Food combined. The floor has arrows directing the customers in such a way to prevent close contact.
I went straight to the till and stood on the square on the floor as advised which is quite a bit back from the tills to allow people to exit down an aisle with arrows to the exit. I was wearing a mask.
Two scruffy looking guys not wearing masks tried to push past me on their way out. I pointed to the arrows on the floor directing them away from me. One said.....oh sorry and went where I pointed. The other pushed past my arm and said.....I'm going this way giving me a stink eye look. I walked towards
the till and said....wankers.One shop assistant laughed and the girl behind the till smiled and shrugged her shoulders.
Just imagine if I had been more forceful ( which has been known ) !!
Click to expand...

You should have done a big false cough and sneeze in his direction ...would have wiped the smile off his face!
 
Nick Real Deal said:
I had to get fuel this morning at a BP garage which has M&S Food combined. The floor has arrows directing the customers in such a way to prevent close contact.
I went straight to the till and stood on the square on the floor as advised which is quite a bit back from the tills to allow people to exit down an aisle with arrows to the exit. I was wearing a mask.
Two scruffy looking guys not wearing masks tried to push past me on their way out. I pointed to the arrows on the floor directing them away from me. One said.....oh sorry and went where I pointed. The other pushed past my arm and said.....I'm going this way giving me a stink eye look. I walked towards
the till and said....wankers.One shop assistant laughed and the girl behind the till smiled and shrugged her shoulders.
Just imagine if I had been more forceful ( which has been known ) !!
Click to expand...
See Harri no matter how good you are the twathead numpties always appear and piss you off.
 
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