Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day. | Page 32 | Vital Football

Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day.

I'm told that a further revision may take place as the early recording was even worse than this revision shows..

UK death toll drops by 5,377 as Government changes way fatalities are counted View 29 comments author image James HockadayWednesday 12 Aug 2020 7:10 pm Share this article via facebook Share this article via twitter Share this article via messenger 927Shares Matt Hancock and coronavirus test centre Concerns were raised officials ‘exaggerated’ the figures due to their methodology.

Britain’s coronavirus death toll has been lowered by more than 5,000 after the Government adopted a new way of counting fatalities. It follows concerns officials could have been ‘inflating’ the figures due to a faulty methodology in England, which accounts for 85% of the population. As of today the UK’s official Covid-19 toll is 41,329 rather than the the 46,706 recorded under the old system. The tally is still the highest in Europe ahead of Italy on about 35,000.

Questions were raised over the Government’s methodology after Oxford University academics found Public Health England were including the deaths of anyone who tested positive for Covid-19, even if they were hit by a bus months later. In contrast Scotland and Wales have a 28-day cut off after someone tests positive for coronavirus – after which it is not assumed they died from the bug. The new system has been agreed between all four of the UK’s home nations to make sure data is collated in a consistent way from now on.

Authorities will publish on a daily basis the number of deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive test, the Department of Health confirmed. Director of health improvement at Public Health England John Newton said: ‘The way we count deaths in people with COVID-19 in England was originally chosen to avoid underestimating deaths caused by the virus in the early stages of the pandemic.

The toll has fallen to 46,706, but it is still the highest in Europe ahead of Italy’s 35,000 (Picture: PA) ‘Our analysis of the long-term impact of the infection now allows us to move to new methods.’ Epidemiologists say excess mortality – deaths from all causes that exceed the five-year average for the time of year – is the best way of gauging deaths from a disease outbreak because it is internationally comparable.

The United Kingdom suffered the highest rate of excess deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic in a comparison of 21 European countries, an analysis from Britain’s statistics office showed in July, with around 65,000 more people than usual dying. The health ministry had suspended the daily publication of data on COVID-19 deaths in July after Health Secretary Matt Hancock ordered an urgent review into the methodology being used in England.

The change brings the method for counting deaths into line with how they were already being recorded in Scotland. However, in England a new weekly set of figures will also be published, including deaths that occur within 60 days and deaths that mention COVID-19 on the death certificate, which could provide insight into the longer term impact of the disease.

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/08/12/uk-d...-fatalities-are-counted-13121285/?ito=cbshare
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/
 
Germany 'optimistic' for coronavirus vaccine in months: Live

German minister predicts COVID-19 vaccine available in coming months as WHO expected to discuss Russia's 'Sputnik V'.

by Umut Uras
20 minutes ago




  • UN chief Antonio Guterres warns the coronavirus pandemic not only threatens gains in fighting poverty and building peace, but also risks exacerbating old conflicts and generating new ones.
  • President Vladimir Putin says Russia has developed the first vaccine offering "sustainable immunity" against the coronavirus, but the WHO says it does not have enough information to evaluate it.
  • Worldwide coronavirus cases have surpassed 20.4 million, according to the Johns Hopkins University. More than 12.7 million have recovered, and more than 745,000 have died,
Here are the latest updates:
Thursday, August 13
09:50 GMT - Indonesia reports 2,098 new coronavirus infections
Indonesia reported 2,098 new coronavirus infections, taking the total number of cases in the Southeast Asian country to 132,816, data from the country's health ministry showed.
The data also showed 65 additional deaths, taking the total to 5,968.
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Passengers wearing protective masks and face shields queue for a public bus in Jakarta [File: Reuters]
09:30 GMT - Malaysia jails Indian man linked to fresh virus outbreak
A Malaysian court jailed an Indian man for five months for violating a home quarantine order, leading to dozens of new coronavirus infections, the Bernama state news agency reported.
The 57-year-old, who resides in Malaysia and owns a restaurant in the northern state of Kedah, pleaded guilty to four charges of violating a mandated 14-day home quarantine order upon his return from India in July.
He was also fined 12,000 ringgit ($2,864) by the Alor Setar Magistrate's Court, which held a special hearing at a Kedah hospital where the accused was undergoing treatment, Bernama reported.
09:00 GMT - Hong Kong reports 69 new coronavirus cases
Hong Kong reported 69 new coronavirus cases, of which 65 were locally transmitted, as authorities cautioned the global financial hub still faced a critical period to control the virus, which has seen a resurgence since early July.
Since late January, more than 4,200 people have been infected in Hong Kong, 65 of whom have died. Thursday's figure was up slightly from Wednesday's 62 cases.
af9ece19a3ec44dfb820bc60678b6672_18.jpg

People wear surgical masks at a wet market at Sham Shui Po, Hong Kong, China [File: Reuters]
08:30 GMT - Nearly 6% of people in England may have had COVID-19
Nearly 6 percent of people in England were likely infected with COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic, researchers studying the prevalence of infections said, millions more people than have tested positive for the disease.
A total of 313,798 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in Britain, 270,971 of which have been in England, or just 0.5 percent of the English population.
However, a study that tested more than 100,000 people across England for antibodies to the coronavirus showed that nearly 6 percent of people had them, suggesting that 3.4 million people had previously contracted COVID-19 by the end of the June.
Prevalence of infections appeared to be be highest in London, where 13 percent of people had antibodies, while minority ethnic groups were two to three times as likely to have had COVID-19 compared to white people.
 
Scientists are awaiting the results of the first drugs specifically designed to target Covid-19 and are quietly optimistic that the data, set to be revealed next month, will herald a major breakthrough.
If confirmed as safe and effective the drugs, known as monoclonal antibodies, could have a dramatic impact on efforts to halt the pandemic and reduce the death toll, say experts.
Monoclonal antibodies are already used to treat conditions including cancer, arthritis and Ebola. They are laboratory produced antibodies specific to the disease in question and delivered via injection. But there's a major drawback: they are expensive to manufacture and distribute.
For Covid-19, scientists hope the treatment will prevent the virus from reproducing inside human cells and could be used in the early stages of disease, to prevent an infection from worsening and turning Covid-19 into something akin to a bad cold.
This contrasts to the two drugs so far proven effective against Covid-19, the antiviral remdesivir and the steroid dexamethasone, which can only be used to treat severely ill patients.
The first trial results for monoclonal antibody therapies are expected to be published next month, but already experts are optimistic.

“We do expect them to be effective, based both on previous experience with other pandemic-type viruses, but also preclinically in the lab with Covid-19,” said Dr Nick Cammack, who is leading the search for coronavirus treatments at the UK biomedical research charity Wellcome. “We expect them to be able to kill off the virus.”
Dr Cammack added that monoclonal antibodies may also be used prophylactically, meaning they could even be given to those exposed to the virus to prevent them developing symptoms.
He said he could “envisage a scenario” in which contact tracers offer the drugs to those who have been in contact with an infected individual as a fail safe - for instance when tracing a cluster of cases linked to a pub or restaurant.
“It’s likely [immunity] will last with one injection a couple of weeks, and that might be good enough to make sure that they don't succumb to the infection,” he said. “There are lots of great possibilities.”
Science in this field has exploded in recent years, with monoclonal antibody development one of the fastest-growing areas in biomedical research. Roughly 70 different monoclonal therapies are currently being developed to treat Covid-19 and several trials are underway - including four from large pharmaceutical companies in clinical trials.
The American biotech company Regeneron is set to reveal the first data on monoclonal antibodies before the end of September - the preliminary results come from a phase three trial involving 2,000 patients. Another study from Eli Lily, which aims to enrol 1,000 people with Covid-19, is expected to publish data in the autumn.


Unlike vaccines, where fewer than 10 per cent of candidates make it through the development process, Dr Cammack is confident that the majority of monoclonal antibodies will prove successful.
There are some safety concerns - for instance researchers are watching out for signs of “antibody-dependent enhancement” during trials, where antibodies actually help the virus to enter human cells and reproduce.
But assuming the drugs are proved safe, the most substantive barriers to overcome will be logistical.
Monoclonal antibodies are expensive to produce, complicated to manufacture and because they are administered via an injection, the therapy may be difficult to use in regions with limited healthcare infrastructure.
According to a report published this week by two leading public-health charities - the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI) and Wellcome - these issues could curtail the treatment’s potential.
“These are pretty revolutionary products that have real potential to save lives and alter the pandemic’s trajectory,” said Dr Lindsay Keir, innovations partner at Wellcome. “But historically we haven’t thought early enough about how to lower development costs and how they would actually be used in clinics.”
Despite a global need for the monoclonal antibodies that are already on the market for other diseases, currently 80 per cent of therapies are sold in the United States, Europe and Canada - which makes up around 15 per cent of the global population.
This is partly because they are expensive - in the US they tend to cost between $15,000 and $200,000 per year of treatment.
“This is obviously prohibitively expensive for many people around the world,” said Dr Keir. “But there are examples where antibodies are much cheaper - for example the rabies antibody that has been developed by the Serum Institute of India and Zydus Cadila costs between about $20 and $40.
“So it shows you that there is a massive spectrum and there is potential to reduce cost,” she said, adding that there is some mystery over the pricing of antibody treatments at the moment.
“Manufacturing is more specialised and can be expensive, but there are other issues - a lot of antibodies are made for high income markets and so there are fewer incentives to reduce cost. How big the market size of patients is also affects price, and it can also come down to how countries negotiate prices,” Dr Keir added.
But manufacturing capacity will also be a major issue - while there have been some attempts, including by the Gates Foundation, to ramp up capacity in advance of an approved monoclonal antibody treatment, there has been nothing on the scale of vaccine manufacturing capability.
Dr Cammack said that both are crucial - as neither a vaccine nor a therapeutic alone will end the pandemic. But even in the UK, he is only aware of limited antibody manufacturing capability.
But Dr Keir is optimistic that many of these issues will be tackled and said the IAVI and Wellcome report sets out a range of recommendations that she hopes governments, pharmaceutical companies and non governmental organisations will address.
She added that, if challenges are overcome, there is a “huge opportunity” to make monoclonal antibody treatments for other diseases more accessible across the globe.
 
235,000 new cases today, getting close to 21 million infections in total, 3000 plus in Spain in one day. Deaths way over 5000 again worldwide. Germany and France increased numbers.
It is gloomy indeed , not overblown though , official figures.

This is not going away any time soon.
 
At last we get serious about it - crackdown on the silly, the stupid and the plain morons now begins in earnest:


Wear facemask or you could be fined £3,200, public warned

Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor
Friday August 14 2020, 12.01am, The Times
Boris Johnson
Transport
UK politics
Priti Patel
Grant Shapps
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Existing fines of £100 for not wearing masks in shops, cinemas, galleries and on public transport will be doubled each time a person reoffends


Fines of up to £3,200 for failure to wear a facemask will be introduced as part of new curbs on risky behaviour.
On-the-spot penalties of up to £10,000 will also be levied on the organisers of illegal parties as ministers grow concerned about gangs arranging gatherings that can turn violent.
The announcement came as Boris Johnson announced the relaxation of further restrictions from tomorrow. Theatres will reopen and wedding receptions and spectator sport resume. However, the prime minister said that people must not become “complacent”.


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Existing fines of £100 for not wearing masks in shops, cinemas, galleries and on public transport will be doubled each time a person reoffends up to the maximum of £3,200 as Mr Johnson promised to get tough on “those who repeatedly flout the rules”. It is hoped that higher fines will improve compliance after figures showed that police stopped almost 30,000 people for not wearing masks in less than a fortnight last month. About 1,800 of those spoken to were asked to leave buses and trains. Only 33 fines were issued, with the rest reminded of the rules.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, said: “For those who aren’t exempt, there is no excuse. That’s why we must get tougher on repeat offenders.”

Making masks compulsory seems to have persuaded millions more to wear them. Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that 96 per cent of people in England said they had used a face covering last week, up from 28 per cent at the end of May.
Police across England have stepped up patrols to halt illegal parties, with 125 shut down last weekend in the West Midlands alone. Priti Patel, the home secretary, said that she did not want Britain’s progress “undermined by a small minority of senseless individuals”.
Masks became compulsory on public transport in June. The same rule was applied to shops last month, despite ministers previously saying they were unnecessary as people could wait outside. Masks are now recommended in any indoor public space where people encounter strangers. A week ago they became compulsory in museums, galleries, cinemas and places of worship.
 
Interestingly, we learn today that although only 6% of the population have traceable antibodies post-infection, in London that rises to 17% and we believe that herd immunity would only kick in at around 60% antibodies in the whole population, in terms of T-cells, it may only be around 20% of the total UK population to achieve the same herd immunity...

In London, the detectable infection rate was around 17% (highest in-country).

This survey was by 100,000 people self-testing and send them back to imperial, the next sampling will be 200,000 or perhaps given the results might be a much bigger multiple than this.

Maybe we should sacrifice London? (only kidding!!).
 
What is interesting to me is that given the total Covid deaths vs the population of the UK, the chances of dying from Covid are approximately 0.07% which is lower than some flu outbreaks.

There is no doubt that the virus is prevalent and can have fatal consequences, as can flu but if you take the difference between total infections and total deaths then the recovery rate is estimated at 81% and that is an adjusted figure to allow for those who survive but have ongoing health issues.

Also, comparing the total cases to date against the population the chances of contracting the virus appear to be 0.48%, but of course these figures include the peak infection and death rates so are probably giving too high a figure.

I take from this that if we each take all sensible precautions the risks remain low and if we hang in for a little longer hopefully vaccines and treatment drugs will soon be with us to complete the picture.
 
I’m assuming it’s full recovery as there is a difference between this figure and the actual infections minus deaths which would give a higher recovery number.


BMA Survey Highlights Long COVID Challenge

The latest data released from the BMA's member survey with 4120 respondents finds significant levels of long-term COVID-19 symptoms, known as long COVID, in both patients and doctors.

It found 31% have seen or treated patients with symptoms they believe are a longer-term effect of COVID-19. These included chronic fatigue, reduced exercise capacity, muscle weakness, loss of sense of smell, dizziness, and concentration difficulties.

Around a quarter of doctors believe they've had COVID-19, 12% were confirmed with testing, 14% were not.

Dr David Strain, BMA medical academic staff committee co-chair, commented: "The increasing evidence that COVID-19 patients can suffer long-lasting symptoms, irrespective of the severity of the initial infection, requires detailed study to understand what optimum treatment would be, and, preferably, how to prevent it occurring in the first place.

"Until this is known, it is imperative that the Government and the NHS does more to protect the medical community from infection."
 
PHE Changes Daily Deaths Methodology


Public Health England (PHE) has revised the way it compiles daily COVID-19 deaths after an inquiry ordered by Health Secretary Matt Hancock. The change has lowered the cumulative daily death number by 5377.


Unlike the rest of the UK, England had no time cut-off for recording COVID positive death. This meant unrelated deaths were recorded as coronavirus-related because the patient had once had a positive test, and no one was ever recorded as having recovered.


Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine discovered the anomaly. It calculates that the revision means the current moving average is down to around 10 deaths a day.


In terms of comparison of total deaths within Europe, the UK, and England separately, remain above Italy.


PHE said 96% of COVID-19 deaths in England occurred within 60 days or had COVID-19 on the death certificate, while 88% of deaths occurred within 28 days.


In a statement, Professor John Newton, PHE's director of health improvement, said: "The way we count deaths in people with COVID-19 in England was originally chosen to avoid underestimating deaths caused by the virus in the early stages of the pandemic.


"Our analysis of the long-term impact of the infection now allows us to move to new methods, which will give us crucial information about both recent trends and overall mortality burden due to COVID-19."


Commenting via the Science Media centre, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, said: "The 28-day limit marks an improvement over what is currently reported, but does exclude those who die more than a month after testing, even if they have COVID on the death certificate. Including deaths up to 60 days, and later COVID-registered deaths, seems even better, but still excludes people who were not tested.


"This is a complex area and there is no truly 'correct' count. The ONS figure based on registrations should still be considered the best available, but of course even this does not include additional excess deaths that do not have COVID on their certificate."


He continued: "My real concern is with communication to the media and the public. PHE have been consistently poor in clarifying both who is included as a COVID death and the inevitable delays in reporting, and their dashboard has given the strong impression that the daily count is the actual number of deaths the day before. This in turn has influenced how the number is reported by the media, and is deeply misleading at this stage of the epidemic when the reported and the actual daily counts can be very different.


"I desperately hope that PHE can do more to prevent misinterpretation, but they have got themselves into a difficult situation in adding even more complexity to the multiplicity of COVID death statistics."


On Wednesday, PHE reported 77 UK COVID-19 deaths, taking the total to 46,706. Under the new methodology that's been revised down to 20 daily deaths and a total of 41,329.


NHS Performance


Despite NHS England stressing it is open for business its latest monthly performance indicators show it is nowhere close to business as usual after COVID-19, the Health Foundation said.


"Today’s data shows the NHS is still nowhere close to business as usual following the first outbreak of COVID-19," senior policy fellow Tim Gardner commented. "At the end of June, nearly half of all people waiting for planned hospital care (48%) had waited beyond the 18-week standard – the worst ever performance since the standard was set in 2012. The number of people being referred to specialist care and starting treatment, including for suspected cancer, has increased from last month but remains well below normal levels."


Nuffield Trust Deputy Director of Research Dr Sarah Scobie said: "These figures are a serious warning against any hope that the English NHS can get planned care back to normal before winter hits. The number of patients starting outpatient treatment is still a third lower than usual, and getting back to 100% by September will be a tall order."


Professor Karol Sikora, who comments on cancer issues for Medscape UK, tweeted: "Encouraging to see urgent referrals for cancer are climbing back up, but they're still nowhere near where they need to be. I fear there are far more people who have developed cancer and have no idea."


BMA Council Chair Dr Chaand Nagpaul commented: "These latest set of NHS performance stats are deeply concerning and paint a very bleak picture for the future delivery of patient care if urgent intervention is not forthcoming. This is despite doctors and NHS staff working tirelessly around the clock to deliver care in increasingly challenging circumstances."


England's New Look Tracing App


NHS England's second attempt at building a working contact tracing smartphone app is to be trialled on the Isle of Wight, the same test site used for the first, unsuccessful, app.


Newham is London and NHS volunteer responders are also involved.


The new version uses Apple/Google protocols and Bluetooth technology without central data collection. Northern Ireland launched a similar system at the end of July.


Users will be asked to scan QR 'venue check-in' codes when entering some buildings so they can be alerted to any outbreaks.


England's Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: "We’ve worked with tech companies, international partners, privacy and medical experts to develop an app that is simple to use, secure and will help keep the country safe."


Test and trace chair Baroness Dido Harding conceded: "There is no silver bullet when it comes to tackling coronavirus. The app is a great step forward and will complement all of the work we are doing with local areas across the country to reach more people in their communities and work towards our vision of helping more people get back to the most normal life possible at the lowest risk."


England's latest test and trace statistics to 5 August show little change in performance with 79.7% of positive cases referred to the service being reached and asked to provide information about their contacts. Of these, 74.2% were reached and asked to self-isolate.

NHS Worker Deaths Investigations


Medical examiners in England and Wales are to retrospectively investigate the COVID-19 deaths of hundreds of health and care workers, The Independent reported.


They'll be asked to state whether they have reason to suspect the infection was acquired in employment. This could also result in Health and Safety Executive investigations.


It quotes Dr Rinesh Parmar, chair of the Doctors’ Association UK, saying that while the move is a "positive step", full coroner's investigations are needed into all health worker deaths.


Children Account for 1% of COVID-19 Cases


Children account for just 1% of confirmed COVID-19 cases, according to Public Health England (PHE) research published in Archives of Disease in Childhood.


The study used PHE, NHS, and GP data from England, and found:


  • Children were nearly 6 years old on average when they tested positive for the virus
  • 53% of cases were among boys
  • Test numbers and positive results were highest among infants, particularly under-3 months, and among 1-year-olds
  • COVID-19 case fatality rate for children was estimated to be less than 0.5%

The authors concluded: "Children accounted for a very small proportion of confirmed cases despite the large numbers of children tested. SARS-CoV-2 positivity was low even in children with ARI [acute respiratory infection]. Our findings provide further evidence against the role of children in infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2."


Commenting, Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology, University of Nottingham, said: "This data is heavily skewed by the very fact that the only children tested were those presenting at a GP clinic with well-defined respiratory illness and fever. We know from other studies that children, particularly young children, show minimal symptoms of SARS2 infection and often have no symptoms at all. Therefore, the fact that children weren’t often amongst confirmed cases of COVID-19 isn’t so surprising. To imply that children aren’t an important source of the infection isn’t really fully supported by the evidence here – the study doesn’t look at the infectiousness of children."
 
Public Health England....to be scrapped or so I read this morning, poor work, crap in general, another body to take its place headed by a Baroness, sorry forgot name.

Now if this is true will there be a complete clear out or will they just re-shuffle the pieces, personal, thus end up with the same crap criteria.
 
BMA Survey Highlights Long COVID Challenge

The latest data released from the BMA's member survey with 4120 respondents finds significant levels of long-term COVID-19 symptoms, known as long COVID, in both patients and doctors.

It found 31% have seen or treated patients with symptoms they believe are a longer-term effect of COVID-19. These included chronic fatigue, reduced exercise capacity, muscle weakness, loss of sense of smell, dizziness, and concentration difficulties.

Around a quarter of doctors believe they've had COVID-19, 12% were confirmed with testing, 14% were not.

Dr David Strain, BMA medical academic staff committee co-chair, commented: "The increasing evidence that COVID-19 patients can suffer long-lasting symptoms, irrespective of the severity of the initial infection, requires detailed study to understand what optimum treatment would be, and, preferably, how to prevent it occurring in the first place.

"Until this is known, it is imperative that the Government and the NHS does more to protect the medical community from infection."
In the model I saw it predicted 81% recovery whereas taking the published figures of total confirmed infections vs Deaths would give a recovery rate of 87% so I assume the model allowed a percentage for recovered but with longer term issues.
 
In the model I saw it predicted 81% recovery whereas taking the published figures of total confirmed infections vs Deaths would give a recovery rate of 87% so I assume the model allowed a percentage for recovered but with longer term issues.

Cerebral microstructural changes in COVID-19 patients reveal possible long-term burden

A prospective study of recovered COVID-19 patients revealed brain microstructural changes suggesting long-term consequences related to SARS-CoV-2 infection, according to an article published in EClinicalMedicine.

The analysis included 60 recovered COVID-19 patients and 39 age- and sex-matched non-COVID controls. The researchers collected detailed neurological symptoms via self-reporting and performed neuroimaging using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and 3D T1 weighted imaging (T1WI) three months after SARS-CoV-2 infection to identify potential brain microstructural changes.

The abnormalities found by researchers indicated a correlation with memory loss, smell loss, and lactate dehydrogenase level. At the three-month follow-up, neurological symptoms were present in 55 per cent of COVID-19 patients.

COVID-19 patients also showed statistically significant higher bilateral grey matter volumes (GMV) in olfactory cortices, hippocampi, insulas, left Rolandic operculum, left Heschl’s gyrus and right cingulate gyrus. All these structures belong to the central olfactory system, providing speculation that SARS-CoV-2 might enter the CNS via an olfactory bulb-mediated retrograde neuronal route.

The abnormalities in these brain areas reveal a possible disruption to microstructural and functional brain integrity in the recovery stages of COVID-19, suggesting the potential for neuro-invasion by SARS-CoV-2. These neurological changes might indicate a long-term burden to COVID-19 patients after recovery.