Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
Are we treating patients with Covid in hospital better now with drugs to prevent death ? There were a couple of drugs from memory that helped.
Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day.
- Thread starter Spursex
- Start date
Are we treating patients with Covid in hospital better now with drugs to prevent death ? There were a couple of drugs from memory that helped.
Spursex
Alert Team
yes, treatment is unquestionably better now and survival rates have greatly improved with less admissions to ICU - hence why in some places the Nightingale hospitals are beginning to be dismantled.
The issue now is one of recuperation; it's now clear that for some it's months, if not years of health issues to look forward to. i.e. heart weaknesses as valves have been badly damaged, lungs only working at 25% capacity etc, kidneys only barely functioning etc etc
Greavswasthegreatest
Vital Football Legend
They should have used the nightingale units as Covid hubs and put all ICU Covid cases to these where the medical experts in handling it would be concentrated. Then all the other hospitals in the area could have carried on with BAU in the main!
Welshtel
Vital Football Hero
It’s all very well to say 2m distancing is right but while stood in a queue outside Aldi’s a guy behind me had a vape cigarette. There were around 10 people in front of me at 2 metre spacings and as he exhaled the ‘smoke’ trail went the length of the whole queue. That’s around 24 metres.
Spursex
Alert Team
Point out his anti-social behaviour and ask him politely but firmly to stop. But be prepared to knock his vape on the floor, and him if you have to
Spursex
Alert Team
Cases Increasing, Hospitalisations Falling
Data from Public Health England and NHSX
Yesterday, 1,062 people tested positive for COVID-19, up from 758 cases in the previous 24 hours. According to yesterday’s Sunday Times, the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has fallen by 94% since the peak of the pandemic. Hospital staff are treating about 1,067 coronavirus patients a day in England, compared with about 17,000 a day in the middle of April, says NHS England. The Times has more.
Ron Daniels, an intensive care consultant in Birmingham, one of the worst-hit areas, told the Sunday Times there had been a big fall in admissions.
Last Thursday, across three hospitals that serve more than 50 per cent of Birmingham’s population, there were three critically ill COVID-19 patients.
“Compare that to where we were a couple of months ago, when we had almost 200 patients ventilated at any one given time, and this is a huge downturn,” Dr Daniels said.
He said the figures showed there was cause to be optimistic, even with the recent rise in cases in some areas such as Aberdeen and Preston.
He added that he didn’t expect an increase in hospital admissions. “I think that’s highly unlikely, because the pubs have been open for over a month [and] people have been socially interacting heavily during that time and the natural history of this disease is that if you contract the virus and you’re going to end up in hospital, you’re pretty much in hospital within 15 days,” he said.
Yesterday, 1,062 people tested positive for COVID-19, up from 758 cases in the previous 24 hours. According to yesterday’s Sunday Times, the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has fallen by 94% since the peak of the pandemic. Hospital staff are treating about 1,067 coronavirus patients a day in England, compared with about 17,000 a day in the middle of April, says NHS England. The Times has more.
Ron Daniels, an intensive care consultant in Birmingham, one of the worst-hit areas, told the Sunday Times there had been a big fall in admissions.
Last Thursday, across three hospitals that serve more than 50 per cent of Birmingham’s population, there were three critically ill COVID-19 patients.
“Compare that to where we were a couple of months ago, when we had almost 200 patients ventilated at any one given time, and this is a huge downturn,” Dr Daniels said.
He said the figures showed there was cause to be optimistic, even with the recent rise in cases in some areas such as Aberdeen and Preston.
He added that he didn’t expect an increase in hospital admissions. “I think that’s highly unlikely, because the pubs have been open for over a month [and] people have been socially interacting heavily during that time and the natural history of this disease is that if you contract the virus and you’re going to end up in hospital, you’re pretty much in hospital within 15 days,” he said.
Pompey Yid
Vital Champions League
Morning EX, thanks very much for your reply, now I am with you/it, you explained it very simply, esp for me as a simple person lol! Thanks again.
Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
Some concerning infection and death figures worldwide today. Over 220,000 new infections and 5000 deaths. Some spikes in Europe too. Spain, France, Germany and us.
Spursex
Alert Team
Japan Acted Like the Virus Had Gone. Now It’s Spread Everywhere.
By
Lisa Du
and
Rie Morita
1 August 2020, 00:00 BST Updated on 3 August 2020, 02:47 BST
Covid-19 Surges in Emerging Markets as Global Cases Top 18 Million
Covid-19 Surges in Emerging Markets as Global Cases Top 18 Million
After initial success, Japan is facing a reality check on the coronavirus.
The country garnered global attention after containing the first wave of Covid-19 with what it referred to as the “Japan Model” -- limited testing and no lockdown, nor any legal means to force businesses to close. The country’s finance minister even suggested a higher “cultural standard” helped contain the disease.
But now the island nation is facing a formidable resurgence, with Covid-19 cases hitting records nationwide day after day. Infections first concentrated in the capital have spread to other urban areas, while regions without cases for months have become new hotspots. And the patient demographic -- originally younger people less likely to fall seriously ill -- is expanding to the elderly, a concern given that Japan is home to the world’s oldest population.
Experts say that Japan’s focus on the economy may have been its undoing. As other countries in Asia, which experienced the coronavirus earlier than those in the West, wrestle with new flare ups of Covid-19, Japan now risks becoming a warning for what happens when a country moves too fast to normalize -- and doesn’t adjust its strategy when the outbreak changes.
While Japan declared a state of emergency to contain the first wave of the virus, it didn’t compel people to stay home or businesses to shut. That was ended in late May and officials quickly pivoted to a full reopening in an attempt to get the country’s recessionary economy back on track. By June, restaurants and bars were fully open while events like baseball and sumo-wrestling were back on -- a stark contrast to other places in the region like Singapore which were re-opening only in cautious phases.
Japan’s haste may have been premature, say experts.
“This is the result of the government prioritizing economic activity by getting people to move around again over infection control,” said Yoshihito Niki, a professor of infectious diseases at Showa University’s School of Medicine.
A panel of experts, praised for showing leadership during the first wave, was dissolved in a political mix-up, while a much-derided campaign to encourage domestic travel began just as infections started to surge.
Proper Strategy
Countries throughout the Asia-Pacific are experiencing second waves, many -- like Hong Kong, Australia and Vietnam -- after being standard bearers for virus containment the first time around. They’re providing a window into the future for places just emerging from their first outbreaks, or continuing to battle through them, like the U.S.
A number of factors contributed to Japan’s resurgence, according to public health experts. The state of emergency may have been lifted too early, before infections had sufficiently slowed. That also resulted in an ill-defined reopening plan -- leaving officials slow to take steps when new infection hotspots first emerged in nightclubs late in June. As cases increased, officials continued to talk down the dangers and insist they were mainly confined to nightlife spots.
“The government should have had a proper strategy to contain the transmission as promptly as possible,” said Kenji Shibuya, a professor at King’s College London and a former chief of health policy at the World Health Organization. “Both Hong Kong and Australia acted very quickly and are trying to contain it as fast as possible, with expanded testing and aggressive social distancing including local lockdowns. Japan is making things worse by just waiting and seeing.”
Cases in Japan nationwide topped 1,000 for five consecutive days as of Monday, with the number of infections above 1,500 on two of those days. During the previous peak in April, daily cases maxed out at just over 700.
Second Surge
Although Japan understood earlier than many Western countries that the virus was more likely to spread through droplets in the air, and warned residents to avoid crowded, unventilated conditions, it wasn’t enough to change individual behavior as the restrictions were lifted. While people have continued to wear masks throughout the pandemic, the current infections have largely occurred in situations where face coverings aren’t typically worn, like group dining and drinking events.
Unlike New Zealand, Japan never spoke of eliminating the pathogen. Experts tried to encourage a “new way of living” and spoke of an era in which people lived with the virus. But the messaging from central and regional governments was mixed, with local officials in Tokyo warning against travel even as the national government encouraged it, and both sides bickering over who was to blame.
The national government continues to argue that the situation this time is different. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga reiterated Friday that another state of emergency isn’t required. The death rate in Japan remains low by almost any standards, and the medical system isn’t over-burdened -- a key factor public health officials use to judge success of virus containment. The country has fewer than 100 people in critical care due to Covid-19.
But treatment won’t bring the current spread to a halt.
“Hospitals can treat the infected,” said Koji Wada, a public health professor at the International University of Health and Welfare in Tokyo. “But only the government, through public health measures, can reduce the number of infected people.”
When Shigeru Omi, the head of the current panel of experts advising the government, told officials to delay the domestic tourism push, he was ignored. The “Go To Travel” campaign then turned into a public relations nightmare, as Japan’s rural residents grew angry over the potential of infections being brought to the countryside by city-dwellers. Eventually, Tokyo was excluded from the campaign in a last-minute about-face.
‘Last Chance’
What impact the tourism campaign had on spreading the virus won’t be known for weeks. Experts are now more concerned over the upcoming traditional Obon holiday period in mid-August, when many young Japanese return home to pay respect to the dead and spend time with often-elderly relatives.
In a sign that the situation can no longer be ignored, local officials are starting to backtrack on economic re-opening. Osaka has asked people to refrain from dining in groups of five or more. In Tokyo, restaurants, bars and karaoke shops have been asked to shorten operating hours. Governor Yuriko Koike has threatened to declare another state of emergency for the capital. Okinawa has already done so.
“The central government hasn’t shown clear guidance and a clear strategy on what to do about Covid-19, and is pushing the responsibility to the local government,” said Haruka Sakamoto, a public health researcher at the University of Tokyo. “In ordinary times, the government is very centralized, and usually prefectures don’t have strong opinions.”
Some think the steps don’t go far enough. Haruo Ozaki, the head of the Tokyo Medical Association, called on Thursday for the government to revise legislation so it can legally force businesses to close.
“This is our last chance to mitigate the spread of infection,” he said.
By
Lisa Du
and
Rie Morita
1 August 2020, 00:00 BST Updated on 3 August 2020, 02:47 BST
- After first wave, Japan re-opened quickly, urged travel
- Focus on economic recovery over infection control blamed
Covid-19 Surges in Emerging Markets as Global Cases Top 18 Million
Covid-19 Surges in Emerging Markets as Global Cases Top 18 Million
After initial success, Japan is facing a reality check on the coronavirus.
The country garnered global attention after containing the first wave of Covid-19 with what it referred to as the “Japan Model” -- limited testing and no lockdown, nor any legal means to force businesses to close. The country’s finance minister even suggested a higher “cultural standard” helped contain the disease.
But now the island nation is facing a formidable resurgence, with Covid-19 cases hitting records nationwide day after day. Infections first concentrated in the capital have spread to other urban areas, while regions without cases for months have become new hotspots. And the patient demographic -- originally younger people less likely to fall seriously ill -- is expanding to the elderly, a concern given that Japan is home to the world’s oldest population.
Experts say that Japan’s focus on the economy may have been its undoing. As other countries in Asia, which experienced the coronavirus earlier than those in the West, wrestle with new flare ups of Covid-19, Japan now risks becoming a warning for what happens when a country moves too fast to normalize -- and doesn’t adjust its strategy when the outbreak changes.
While Japan declared a state of emergency to contain the first wave of the virus, it didn’t compel people to stay home or businesses to shut. That was ended in late May and officials quickly pivoted to a full reopening in an attempt to get the country’s recessionary economy back on track. By June, restaurants and bars were fully open while events like baseball and sumo-wrestling were back on -- a stark contrast to other places in the region like Singapore which were re-opening only in cautious phases.
Japan’s haste may have been premature, say experts.
“This is the result of the government prioritizing economic activity by getting people to move around again over infection control,” said Yoshihito Niki, a professor of infectious diseases at Showa University’s School of Medicine.
A panel of experts, praised for showing leadership during the first wave, was dissolved in a political mix-up, while a much-derided campaign to encourage domestic travel began just as infections started to surge.
Proper Strategy
Countries throughout the Asia-Pacific are experiencing second waves, many -- like Hong Kong, Australia and Vietnam -- after being standard bearers for virus containment the first time around. They’re providing a window into the future for places just emerging from their first outbreaks, or continuing to battle through them, like the U.S.
A number of factors contributed to Japan’s resurgence, according to public health experts. The state of emergency may have been lifted too early, before infections had sufficiently slowed. That also resulted in an ill-defined reopening plan -- leaving officials slow to take steps when new infection hotspots first emerged in nightclubs late in June. As cases increased, officials continued to talk down the dangers and insist they were mainly confined to nightlife spots.
“The government should have had a proper strategy to contain the transmission as promptly as possible,” said Kenji Shibuya, a professor at King’s College London and a former chief of health policy at the World Health Organization. “Both Hong Kong and Australia acted very quickly and are trying to contain it as fast as possible, with expanded testing and aggressive social distancing including local lockdowns. Japan is making things worse by just waiting and seeing.”
Cases in Japan nationwide topped 1,000 for five consecutive days as of Monday, with the number of infections above 1,500 on two of those days. During the previous peak in April, daily cases maxed out at just over 700.
Second Surge
Although Japan understood earlier than many Western countries that the virus was more likely to spread through droplets in the air, and warned residents to avoid crowded, unventilated conditions, it wasn’t enough to change individual behavior as the restrictions were lifted. While people have continued to wear masks throughout the pandemic, the current infections have largely occurred in situations where face coverings aren’t typically worn, like group dining and drinking events.
Unlike New Zealand, Japan never spoke of eliminating the pathogen. Experts tried to encourage a “new way of living” and spoke of an era in which people lived with the virus. But the messaging from central and regional governments was mixed, with local officials in Tokyo warning against travel even as the national government encouraged it, and both sides bickering over who was to blame.
The national government continues to argue that the situation this time is different. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga reiterated Friday that another state of emergency isn’t required. The death rate in Japan remains low by almost any standards, and the medical system isn’t over-burdened -- a key factor public health officials use to judge success of virus containment. The country has fewer than 100 people in critical care due to Covid-19.
But treatment won’t bring the current spread to a halt.
“Hospitals can treat the infected,” said Koji Wada, a public health professor at the International University of Health and Welfare in Tokyo. “But only the government, through public health measures, can reduce the number of infected people.”
When Shigeru Omi, the head of the current panel of experts advising the government, told officials to delay the domestic tourism push, he was ignored. The “Go To Travel” campaign then turned into a public relations nightmare, as Japan’s rural residents grew angry over the potential of infections being brought to the countryside by city-dwellers. Eventually, Tokyo was excluded from the campaign in a last-minute about-face.
‘Last Chance’
What impact the tourism campaign had on spreading the virus won’t be known for weeks. Experts are now more concerned over the upcoming traditional Obon holiday period in mid-August, when many young Japanese return home to pay respect to the dead and spend time with often-elderly relatives.
In a sign that the situation can no longer be ignored, local officials are starting to backtrack on economic re-opening. Osaka has asked people to refrain from dining in groups of five or more. In Tokyo, restaurants, bars and karaoke shops have been asked to shorten operating hours. Governor Yuriko Koike has threatened to declare another state of emergency for the capital. Okinawa has already done so.
“The central government hasn’t shown clear guidance and a clear strategy on what to do about Covid-19, and is pushing the responsibility to the local government,” said Haruka Sakamoto, a public health researcher at the University of Tokyo. “In ordinary times, the government is very centralized, and usually prefectures don’t have strong opinions.”
Some think the steps don’t go far enough. Haruo Ozaki, the head of the Tokyo Medical Association, called on Thursday for the government to revise legislation so it can legally force businesses to close.
“This is our last chance to mitigate the spread of infection,” he said.
Spursex
Alert Team
Russia’s vaccine gamble
Russia announced today that it had approved a vaccine for the coronavirus, the first country in the world to do so. But the claim has been met with international skepticism because the vaccine has not been thoroughly tested.
Vaccines generally go through three stages of human testing before they are approved. The first two phases test the vaccine on small numbers of people to see if it stimulates an immune response without harm. In the final phase — known as Phase 3 — the vaccine is compared to a placebo and is given to thousands of people.
Our colleague Carl Zimmer, who covers science for The Times, told us that a large-scale trial was the only way to know with any certainty that a vaccine would work, and it would help identify subtle side effects that might have been missed in smaller studies.
The Russian vaccine, known as Sputnik-V, has not yet entered Phase 3, and scientific data from its earlier trails has not been published. Still, the health minister said that the country would begin vaccinating teachers and health workers this month, followed by a mass vaccination campaign in the fall.
“That’s like taking a plane up in the sky, claiming that it works, when you’ve never actually taken a test flight,” Carl told us. “Maybe it will work, or maybe you’ll crash into the ground.”
Western regulators don’t expect a vaccine to become widely available before the end of the year at the earliest. President Vladimir Putin’s rush to announce the vaccine is raising concerns that Russia is cutting corners in order to gain propaganda points.
“Vaccine experts have been warning about this kind of political grandstanding for months now,” Carl said. “Vaccines are among the safest medicines in history. But if someone just decides to skip some vital parts of the process and put out a vaccine that doesn’t work, you can raise doubts in people’s minds about other vaccines. And if people don’t trust vaccines, they may not take them.”
Russia announced today that it had approved a vaccine for the coronavirus, the first country in the world to do so. But the claim has been met with international skepticism because the vaccine has not been thoroughly tested.
Vaccines generally go through three stages of human testing before they are approved. The first two phases test the vaccine on small numbers of people to see if it stimulates an immune response without harm. In the final phase — known as Phase 3 — the vaccine is compared to a placebo and is given to thousands of people.
Our colleague Carl Zimmer, who covers science for The Times, told us that a large-scale trial was the only way to know with any certainty that a vaccine would work, and it would help identify subtle side effects that might have been missed in smaller studies.
The Russian vaccine, known as Sputnik-V, has not yet entered Phase 3, and scientific data from its earlier trails has not been published. Still, the health minister said that the country would begin vaccinating teachers and health workers this month, followed by a mass vaccination campaign in the fall.
“That’s like taking a plane up in the sky, claiming that it works, when you’ve never actually taken a test flight,” Carl told us. “Maybe it will work, or maybe you’ll crash into the ground.”
Western regulators don’t expect a vaccine to become widely available before the end of the year at the earliest. President Vladimir Putin’s rush to announce the vaccine is raising concerns that Russia is cutting corners in order to gain propaganda points.
“Vaccine experts have been warning about this kind of political grandstanding for months now,” Carl said. “Vaccines are among the safest medicines in history. But if someone just decides to skip some vital parts of the process and put out a vaccine that doesn’t work, you can raise doubts in people’s minds about other vaccines. And if people don’t trust vaccines, they may not take them.”
Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
The UK has gone over 1000 new infections for the third day in a row. 1000 is considered to be the maximum acceptable figure. That is with face masks in shops and local lockdowns. We still have the schools to reopen yet !!
Harry-Kari
Vital 1st Team Regular
Can we give the gloom and doom a rest on here...most of it is overblown tosh if you just investigate.
Nick Real Deal
Vital Football Legend
235,000 new cases today, getting close to 21 million infections in total, 3000 plus in Spain in one day. Deaths way over 5000 again worldwide. Germany and France increased numbers.
It is gloomy indeed , not overblown though , official figures.
It is gloomy indeed , not overblown though , official figures.
10Hoddle
Vital 1st Team Regular
Good to hear from you Welshy!
That sounds disgusting. The ignorance of some people to think that vaping is any less intrusive on others than smoking.
10Hoddle
Vital 1st Team Regular
So, New Zealand has gone 102 days with zero cases, until BANG! 4 new cases yesterday, all from the same family. They have no idea how they contracted the virus, as they've not traveled overseas etc.
NZ has been the apple of the World's eye due to their handling and strict int'l border closures, and Auckland is now in lock down with fears that the 4 people have spread this virus to hundreds, if not thousands.
Victoria, in Australia are still leading the way in terms of completely fucking up process and procedures around containing the virus. Numbers of daily new cases are still over 400 with around 20 deaths per day. 80% are from nursing homes.
Queensland again have zero new cases, with our borders once again well and truly shut to New South Wales and Victoria. My wife's parents live 1 hour away from us, but just over the Queensland border in NSW, meaning we can't visit. Talk of the borders being closed well past Christmas. We all normally gather at their beautiful home on the Tweed Coast over looking the Pacific Ocean on Christmas day. Not this year by the looks of it.
NZ has been the apple of the World's eye due to their handling and strict int'l border closures, and Auckland is now in lock down with fears that the 4 people have spread this virus to hundreds, if not thousands.
Victoria, in Australia are still leading the way in terms of completely fucking up process and procedures around containing the virus. Numbers of daily new cases are still over 400 with around 20 deaths per day. 80% are from nursing homes.
Queensland again have zero new cases, with our borders once again well and truly shut to New South Wales and Victoria. My wife's parents live 1 hour away from us, but just over the Queensland border in NSW, meaning we can't visit. Talk of the borders being closed well past Christmas. We all normally gather at their beautiful home on the Tweed Coast over looking the Pacific Ocean on Christmas day. Not this year by the looks of it.
Greavswasthegreatest
Vital Football Legend
At least you can see Vapors coming a mile off and take evasive action most of the time!
Spursex
Alert Team
Some good that may come from all this:
Coronavirus could actually do one good thing: save pangolins
In China, the coronavirus crisis has kick-started an overdue conversation about the illegal wildlife trade
Isaac Kasamani / Getty Images / WIRED
As if pangolins weren’t already in trouble. The scaly, insect-eating mammals suddenly attracted global attention after being identified as a possible culprit for transmitting the novel coronavirus to humans. The Covid-19 pandemic has consequently put wildlife trade, and in particular the consumption of wild meat, under the spotlight.
Though its origins remain unclear, scientists suspect that the Sars-Cov-2 virus causing Covid-19 leaped from horseshoe bats to another host animal, which in turn transmitted the virus to humans. On March 26, Chinese researchers reported a 99 per cent match between a virus found in Malayan pangolins and Sars-Cov-2. Whether the virus found in pangolins is responsible for the pandemic currently raging or not, the race to find the disease’s animal origins have exposed the perils of the global wildlife trade.
China’s wildlife trade, which is estimated to be worth around 520 billion yuan (£60 billion), is vast and complex – and replete with manifest legal loopholes waiting to be exploited by unscrupulous traffickers. Although favoured by many conservationists and campaigners, outright banning all wildlife products could simply push the trade underground. Instead, the National People’s Congress, China’s top law-making body, plans to revise how other wildlife industries, such as the exotic pet trade and farming for fur and leather, should be regulated in the long term.
“As Covid-19 spread, people became more aware of the wildlife trade. Everybody feels threatened by the health crisis,” says Linda Wong, deputy secretary-general of China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation (CBCGDF), a non-profit organisation in Beijing.
On January 26, China slapped a temporary ban on buying, selling, and eating wild meat to curb the spread of the virus (which was made permanent on February 24) and began shutting down breeding farms across the country.
But because certain animals are used for both food and medicine, China’s ban on wildlife consumption may have created a medical loophole for illegal trafficking. In other words, people will stop eating pangolins, but they might still take a pill that contains pangolin parts. The notoriously difficult-to-breed pangolins are protected under international law, but smuggled in large quantities from Africa to Asia, where their scales are used for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM).
The coveted scales are made of keratin – the same material that makes up human fingernails. In 2019 alone, authorities seized 81 tonnes of pangolins scales, with the average size of shipments increasing from 2.6 tonnes to 6.2 tonnes over the previous year. On June 9, China's Health Times reported the government had raised pangolins to the highest level of protection for endangered species (the same as pandas), with strict penalties for those caught killing or trading them, and officially removed the elusive animals from its list of approved ingredients used in TCM.
Timothy Bonebrake, a biologist at the University of Hong Kong’s conservation forensics lab, which helps law enforcement analyse wildlife seizures, welcomes the new measures. “The increased protection will, for example, increase the penalty for illegal trade of pangolins, which should serve as a deterrent. The unlisting from the pharmacopoeia is also an indication that there might be a reduction in demand for pangolin products,” he says.
Wild animals and their products are not only sold in markets and traditional medicine shops but are available for sale online, with video livestreams and online auctions particularly difficult to monitor. “It is hard with those developments of technology. It becomes more and more difficult to track online transactions for outsiders,” says Wong. Vendors use different online platforms to advertise their products and deliver them to the doorstep by courier services.
In March 2018, TRAFFIC, the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW), and WWF convened a coalition with 21 of the world’s biggest tech companies including Alibaba, Baidu, eBay and Google that pledged to reduce the availability of illegal wildlife trade on their platforms by 80 per cent by 2020. More than three million listings related to threatened species and associated products have been removed to date. Because many online listings feature pictures but no text, the IFAW and Baidu also launched an artificial intelligence tool in April 2020 that can identify images of products made of pangolin scales and claws, elephant ivory, and tiger teeth, skin and claws with 75 per cent accuracy.
“AI tools can help us track down illegal information that can't be found through keyword search in the past. We are now identifying these accounts that publish illegal information across platforms through various methods, and promoting the law enforcement agencies and internet security departments to take punitive measures,” says Grace Gabriel, IFAW’s Asia regional director. In recent years, the non-profit organisation has come across ornaments and pendants made from pangolin claws and scales in its online investigations but TCM has been predominantly sold offline.
As the coronavirus pandemic unfolded, e-commerce platforms like Alibaba-owned Taobao also stepped up efforts to enforce China’s wildlife consumption ban. In the first month, they removed information relating to more than 750,000 wildlife products and closed 17,000 online stores or accounts, Liang Aifu, an official with the State Administration for Market Regulation said in a press conference on February 27. But the CBCGDF, which is working with e-commerce companies to tackle online wildlife crime, says the “self-regulation” efforts are not going far enough as most companies have not put in place any mechanisms to monitor ads in the long term.
Coronavirus could actually do one good thing: save pangolins
In China, the coronavirus crisis has kick-started an overdue conversation about the illegal wildlife trade
Isaac Kasamani / Getty Images / WIRED
As if pangolins weren’t already in trouble. The scaly, insect-eating mammals suddenly attracted global attention after being identified as a possible culprit for transmitting the novel coronavirus to humans. The Covid-19 pandemic has consequently put wildlife trade, and in particular the consumption of wild meat, under the spotlight.
Though its origins remain unclear, scientists suspect that the Sars-Cov-2 virus causing Covid-19 leaped from horseshoe bats to another host animal, which in turn transmitted the virus to humans. On March 26, Chinese researchers reported a 99 per cent match between a virus found in Malayan pangolins and Sars-Cov-2. Whether the virus found in pangolins is responsible for the pandemic currently raging or not, the race to find the disease’s animal origins have exposed the perils of the global wildlife trade.
China’s wildlife trade, which is estimated to be worth around 520 billion yuan (£60 billion), is vast and complex – and replete with manifest legal loopholes waiting to be exploited by unscrupulous traffickers. Although favoured by many conservationists and campaigners, outright banning all wildlife products could simply push the trade underground. Instead, the National People’s Congress, China’s top law-making body, plans to revise how other wildlife industries, such as the exotic pet trade and farming for fur and leather, should be regulated in the long term.
“As Covid-19 spread, people became more aware of the wildlife trade. Everybody feels threatened by the health crisis,” says Linda Wong, deputy secretary-general of China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation (CBCGDF), a non-profit organisation in Beijing.
On January 26, China slapped a temporary ban on buying, selling, and eating wild meat to curb the spread of the virus (which was made permanent on February 24) and began shutting down breeding farms across the country.
But because certain animals are used for both food and medicine, China’s ban on wildlife consumption may have created a medical loophole for illegal trafficking. In other words, people will stop eating pangolins, but they might still take a pill that contains pangolin parts. The notoriously difficult-to-breed pangolins are protected under international law, but smuggled in large quantities from Africa to Asia, where their scales are used for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM).
The coveted scales are made of keratin – the same material that makes up human fingernails. In 2019 alone, authorities seized 81 tonnes of pangolins scales, with the average size of shipments increasing from 2.6 tonnes to 6.2 tonnes over the previous year. On June 9, China's Health Times reported the government had raised pangolins to the highest level of protection for endangered species (the same as pandas), with strict penalties for those caught killing or trading them, and officially removed the elusive animals from its list of approved ingredients used in TCM.
Timothy Bonebrake, a biologist at the University of Hong Kong’s conservation forensics lab, which helps law enforcement analyse wildlife seizures, welcomes the new measures. “The increased protection will, for example, increase the penalty for illegal trade of pangolins, which should serve as a deterrent. The unlisting from the pharmacopoeia is also an indication that there might be a reduction in demand for pangolin products,” he says.
Wild animals and their products are not only sold in markets and traditional medicine shops but are available for sale online, with video livestreams and online auctions particularly difficult to monitor. “It is hard with those developments of technology. It becomes more and more difficult to track online transactions for outsiders,” says Wong. Vendors use different online platforms to advertise their products and deliver them to the doorstep by courier services.
In March 2018, TRAFFIC, the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW), and WWF convened a coalition with 21 of the world’s biggest tech companies including Alibaba, Baidu, eBay and Google that pledged to reduce the availability of illegal wildlife trade on their platforms by 80 per cent by 2020. More than three million listings related to threatened species and associated products have been removed to date. Because many online listings feature pictures but no text, the IFAW and Baidu also launched an artificial intelligence tool in April 2020 that can identify images of products made of pangolin scales and claws, elephant ivory, and tiger teeth, skin and claws with 75 per cent accuracy.
“AI tools can help us track down illegal information that can't be found through keyword search in the past. We are now identifying these accounts that publish illegal information across platforms through various methods, and promoting the law enforcement agencies and internet security departments to take punitive measures,” says Grace Gabriel, IFAW’s Asia regional director. In recent years, the non-profit organisation has come across ornaments and pendants made from pangolin claws and scales in its online investigations but TCM has been predominantly sold offline.
As the coronavirus pandemic unfolded, e-commerce platforms like Alibaba-owned Taobao also stepped up efforts to enforce China’s wildlife consumption ban. In the first month, they removed information relating to more than 750,000 wildlife products and closed 17,000 online stores or accounts, Liang Aifu, an official with the State Administration for Market Regulation said in a press conference on February 27. But the CBCGDF, which is working with e-commerce companies to tackle online wildlife crime, says the “self-regulation” efforts are not going far enough as most companies have not put in place any mechanisms to monitor ads in the long term.
Spursex
Alert Team
To weed out wildlife crime from its root, the CBCGDF has been advocating for stricter enforcement through a social credit system that would require e-commerce platforms to set up a blacklist of sellers or buyers involved in illicit trade. Individuals who are reported after repeatedly violating regulations could face further negative consequences. Being on a blacklist could, for instance, affect their ability to get a loan, job or housing, although any sanctions would need to be agreed between local government agencies first.
On a corporate level, e-commerce platforms could also be assessed for their part in tackling the illegal wildlife trade in the same way they already are for their performance in environmental protection, tax payments, and product quality assurance. This means e-commerce platforms could be required to set up blacklisting and reporting mechanisms that help identify and block illegal activity. Xin Dai, an associate professor of law at Peking University Law School, says this could result in regulators blacklisting e-commerce platforms if they fail to carry out their legal duty. But this may not be particularly effective.
“The regulation of large e-commerce platforms in China has been carried out in the fashion that the key regulator interacts very closely and frequently with a limited number of big players,” says Dai. “There's really not much need for the social credit system when the regulator knows exactly who's there and how to make them listen. It's more suitable for dealing with obscure players who otherwise easily hide their trail after violations.” China’s e-commerce law came into effect in January 2019 and made online retailers liable for the sale of counterfeit and knock-off merchandise on their platforms and required them to set up internal “credit systems” to protect consumers.
Since 2019, customers searching for wildlife prohibited for sale will also see a pop-up banner on JD.com discouraging the consumption of wildlife products. “During the epidemic period, due to the lack of searches for such products, the poster automatically was taken offline by the system. JD plans to refine and bring back the poster system in the future,” a spokesperson for the company says.
As for bringing pangolins back from the brink of extinction, the conservation biologist Bonebrake believes the pangolin trade will only stop once the demand fades. “There needs to be recognition that this is not sustainable, this isn’t workable,” he says. “Their continued uses in traditional Chinese medicine and other uses in Asia are really not sustainable. The pangolins can’t survive if the usage continues at this scale.”
