Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day. | Page 30 | Vital Football

Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day.

The world death rate with people who become infected is 5 %. The UK is running at 15%. Yes that's 15 not 1.5. 309,000 infections and 46,000 deaths. Please tell me I have worked this out wrong.
 
Nick Real Deal said:
The world death rate with people who become infected is 5 %. The UK is running at 15%. Yes that's 15 not 1.5. 309,000 infections and 46,000 deaths. Please tell me I have worked this out wrong.
Click to expand...
Your workings are correct, but I have to ask are the figures your using true! or absolute "Bullshit" I ask because nothing is said regards the normal daily/monthly/yearly deaths we have anyway, it seems every death is Covid related.
 
Pompey Yid said:
Your workings are correct, but I have to ask are the figures your using true! or absolute "Bullshit" I ask because nothing is said regards the normal daily/monthly/yearly deaths we have anyway, it seems every death is Covid related.
Click to expand...
Up until 30th June there had been 64,000 excess deaths in the UK compared to the year before.
 
According to many reputable scientists and statisticians, the simplicity of your calculation ignores the probability that the actual infection rate could be anywhere between 25 and 50 times the recorded figure which is the result of testing which itself is flawed as it is mainly focused on NHS staff and those admitted to hospital.

We know that there are many asymptomatic carriers and thousands who have a minor version of the disease but go unrecorded....so the real death rate as a percentage of the population is likely very low...but the MSM an politicians keep pushing these headline figures for their own agendas.
 
Harry-Kari said:
According to many reputable scientists and statisticians, the simplicity of your calculation ignores the probability that the actual infection rate could be anywhere between 25 and 50 times the recorded figure which is the result of testing which itself is flawed as it is mainly focused on NHS staff and those admitted to hospital.

We know that there are many asymptomatic carriers and thousands who have a minor version of the disease but go unrecorded....so the real death rate as a percentage of the population is likely very low...but the MSM an politicians keep pushing these headline figures for their own agendas.
Click to expand...

The % of population is an interesting measure also. I will have a look at how we compare. There are varying factors across the world. The infection v death rate did surprise me for the UK. Our protection of care home residents might have something to do with it ( scandalous). Other countries may have not included their care home figures or indeed.may have protected them better in the first place.
 
Harry-Kari said:
According to many reputable scientists and statisticians, the simplicity of your calculation ignores the probability that the actual infection rate could be anywhere between 25 and 50 times the recorded figure which is the result of testing which itself is flawed as it is mainly focused on NHS staff and those admitted to hospital.

We know that there are many asymptomatic carriers and thousands who have a minor version of the disease but go unrecorded....so the real death rate as a percentage of the population is likely very low...but the MSM an politicians keep pushing these headline figures for their own agendas.
Click to expand...

So far in the three (I include link to the last one below) in all three in depth testing surveys, the actual likely level of infection in the UK looks like no more than 7% of the population; there is no credible evidence at all anywhere to support an infection rate higher than this..

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/31july2020
 
The UK deaths from Covid per million population is very high. The only countries higher are Belgium and Andorra who are anomalies possibly due to far lower total populations. Belgium has 11.5 mil total population and Andorra 77 thousand, yes thousand !! So in Countries with populations over 12 million we are the worst on the planet !!
 
Nick Real Deal said:
The UK deaths from Covid per million population is very high. The only countries higher are Belgium and Andorra who are anomalies possibly due to far lower total populations. Belgium has 11.5 mil total population and Andorra 77 thousand, yes thousand !! So in Countries with populations over 12 million we are the worst on the planet !!
Click to expand...

We are the worst, but it could have been very different if the NHS and local authorities hadn't taken it upon themselves to send post Covid-19 infection older patients into care homes without testing.

It is also because we accounted for all deaths that were condition related to covid as a trigger when almost no one else did - Germany's, for example, had to be the prime cause and not related to be recognised.

MY estimate from extrapolating data from just one NHS region I have seen data on is that it could account for at least half the total deaths, perhaps even far more. Whether we will ever know the full extent of the incompetent decision making that PHE made is debatable, but I look forward to the post-Covid-19 Royal enquiry that will perhaps answer it.
 
I am not sure if its just me, but something keeps niggling in my mind and I am having trouble getting my head round it, it is a fact the Public Sector in this country is very much "the Right hand does not know what the Left hand is doing" and visa versa.

Apparently we are the worst on the planet regards Covid deaths, are we? or is it we have a more comprehensive recording system than others, but this leads again to Right n Left coming into the equation.

Mrs PY and myself know of 4 deaths in last 4 months all down to Covid, according to records, the families of the said 4 are very angry indeed, because they are saying no it is not and they are quite adament about it, who is right or who is wrong and are we being fed bullshit.
 
Pompey Yid said:
Ex, I read your post after I had posted mine, but am still not that sure, thanks.
Click to expand...

The issue is this Pompey;

Up until now anyone who was found positive with covid, even if recovered and subsequently died, is recorded as a covid death. The reasons are medically complicated but easy to grasp, if you had been found positive and hospitalised the chances are that you would have had a legacy covid damage on your organs (as almost 85% of those over 55 have recorded) the post 'recovery' impact can be both life-limiting and long-lasting - so in the medical recorders world that is a death that would not have occured if the person hadn't had covid in the first place, so under the WHO guidelines the coroner issues the death certificate based on that last medical report - unless it is challenged there is no inquest.

Before an independent doctor signs off a death cert, he calls the relatives and asks if they agree that these were the underlying causes: as the DC may record many causes, but do show a prime cause i.e. lung failure, heart attack etc. In the absence of any known relative (very common with the very old), the Death cert reflects what the coroner reads and sees.

So the catch-22 is when is a covid related death not a covide related death, if you catch it and the illness weakens your heart and other organs (very common) and you survice for months after the virus has gone and you die of a heart attack - what killed you?
 
I think we must have bred some of the most stupid people in planet Earth:



Health

New data reveals who’s most likely to refuse a COVID-19 vaccine

The research, by King’s College London and Ipsos MORI, finds that a greater likelihood of refusing a potential vaccine is linked to beliefs, attitudes and values that reflect greater scepticism about science and authority and less concern about the COVID-19 pandemic.

10 August 2020
    • Only half the population (53%) say they’d be certain or very likely to get a vaccine against coronavirus, if one becomes available, with one in five (20%) fairly likely, and one in six (16%) saying they are unlikely to or definitely won’t, according to a new study.
    • Only 4% say we’ll never be able to vaccinate the population – but less than half the public (44%) think we’ll able to in the next 12 months.
    The research, by King’s College London and Ipsos MORI, finds that a greater likelihood of refusing a potential vaccine is linked to beliefs, attitudes and values that reflect greater scepticism about science and authority and less concern about the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Higher proportions of the following groups say it’s doubtful they would get a vaccine, or say they definitely won’t:
    • Those who believe face masks are bad for people’s health (37%), who believe masks do not reduce the spread of COVID-19 (34%), and who think the government only wants people to wear them as a way of controlling the public (34%).
    • Those who strongly agree that too much fuss is being made about the pandemic (36%), who say they do not find coronavirus stressful (27%) and who say they’re not worried about lifting lockdown restrictions (24%).
    • Those who say they’re very much the kind of person for whom it's important to make their own decisions (24%) and who say they're not at all the kind of person who follows the rules at all times (24%).
    • Those who say they do not trust scientific experts more as a result of how they’ve helped during the crisis (33%) and who believe the UK government acted too slowly to control the spread of COVID-19 (27%).
    There is also an age divide in the likelihood of getting vaccinated, with 16-24s (22%) and 25-34s (22%) twice as likely as 55-75s (11%) to say they’re unlikely to do so or definitely won’t.
    The study is based on 2,237 interviews with UK residents aged 16-75, carried out online between 17 and 20 July 2020.
    It finds that certain behaviours and experiences are also linked to being unlikely to get a potential coronavirus vaccine:
    • Around a quarter of those who say they don’t wear face masks (24%) and those who have had or think they’ve had coronavirus (23%) say they probably or definitely won’t.
    • Where people’s knowledge comes from is also a factor: 27% of those who say they get a great deal of information on COVID-19 from WhatsApp say they’re unlikely to or definitely won’t get a vaccine.
    Overall, only half the population (53%) say they’d be certain or very likely to get such a vaccine, with one in five (20%) fairly likely.
    While significant proportions of the population are uncertain about whether they would get the vaccine, there is high confidence that we will develop one: only 4% of people say it’ll never happen – but less than half the public (44%) think we’ll have one in 12 months or less.
    Some are also still uncertain about what the main symptoms of coronavirus are:
    • Many know at least one of the three main symptoms of coronavirus, as identified by the NHS, with 81% recognising two – but only 31% correctly recognise all three.
    Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, said:
    Misperceptions about vaccines are among our most directly damaging beliefs, and they’re clearly influencing people’s intentions during the coronavirus crisis. While one in six in the UK say they are unlikely to or definitely won’t get a potential vaccine against COVID-19, this rises to around a third or more among certain groups, with a clear link to belief in conspiracy theories and mistrust of government, authority and science.
    Vaccines are one of our greatest achievements, and there is a great deal of faith that we’ll eventually develop one for COVID-19 – but more still need to be convinced of how important it could be for ending this crisis.​

    Gideon Skinner, Research Director at Ipsos MORI said:
    Britons are slightly more likely to say they’ll get a vaccine for COVID-19 than one for seasonal flu, but it is still deeply concerning that we see almost a quarter of 16-34 year olds saying they’re unlikely to get vaccinated for COVID-19 if one becomes available. Previously the public have told us that an announcement of a successful vaccine would make a big positive difference to how optimistic they feel, which suggests at least some awareness of how critical vaccinations have been in the past in defeating disease, but this data should serve as an important staging post for the NHS and the Government to combat misperceptions about vaccinations, particularly among young people and those who already have their doubts about the current pandemic.​

    Technical details
    Ipsos MORI interviewed a sample of 2,237 adults aged 16-75 in the United Kingdom using its online i:eek:mnibus between 17 and 20 July 2020. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions for age within gender, government office region, working status, social grade and education. All surveys are subject to a range of potential sources of error.
 
So we are the worst because we are the best......At reporting the likely cause of death that is....based on whether the victim had Covid or not. I wouldn't be at all surprised if some countries are worse in reality.
Interestingly Spain have not been reporting infections or deaths for some time now. A report suggests they have been having significant increases recently.
 
Nick Real Deal said:
So we are the worst because we are the best......At reporting the likely cause of death that is....based on whether the victim had Covid or not. I wouldn't be at all surprised if some countries are worse in reality.
Interestingly Spain have not been reporting infections or deaths for some time now. A report suggests they have been having significant increases recently.
Click to expand...

Yet, the outcome now is that for the 7th week in a row our death rate is below the 5 year average...which is being directly related to infection transmission methods put in place which means people who would normally be at risk of dying from any infection, have avoided it and remain alive.

After all this, there are many many lessons to be learnt about how our health system is constructed; many GP's have already put plans for permanent triaging and even treatment via telemedicine - because as has been argued for a long time it is cheaper, more effective and drives better outcomes - the GP's have fought against it for the last decade; they can't anymore.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.