Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day. | Page 3 | Vital Football

Covid, Phase II. Commonsense is the order of the day.

I think I am glad I am on statins then


There are a few cases in Australia where people tested positive and later tested negative to never have had the virus at all.

We had 2 cases in Queensland. The latest was our supposed 8th victim who lived in Blackwater. Basically in the middle of Queensland in a coal mining town. ( I actually have a property there). He's not worked since Nov 2019, and had been terribly ill for months. He was only 30 y.o. Had many underlying health concerns and passed away 2 weeks ago. His corpse tested positive to CV, and they said he died WITH corona virus. However.....an autopsy proved he did NOT have CV. tested negative.

Many questions being asked of the testing process and health system. Our low numbers of cases and deaths may actually be inflated. They could be even lower.

Keep on them statins.
 
Architect of Sweden's strategy regrets not imposing tougher lockdown

Anders Tegnell admitted that there is 'room for improvement' when it comes to the nation's lockdown strategy


By Richard Orange Malmö 3 June 2020 • 10:04am

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Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has for the first time admitted that the Swedish approach perhaps did not go far enough

Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has admitted that Sweden should have imposed greater restrictions to bring the country's epidemic under control, the first time he has expressed doubts about his decision not to impose a lockdown.

In an interview with Sweden's state radio broadcaster SR, Tegnell said that, given the Sweden's stubbornly high death rate, he no longer believed that he, and The Public Health Agency of Sweden, had got the balance right.

"If we were hit by the same disease, knowing exactly what we know today, I think we would end up doing something between what Sweden has done, and what the rest of the world has done," he said. "I think there's certainly room for improvement in what we've done in Sweden, absolutely."

Sweden's coronavirus strategy, which is much less restrictive than that of any other developed country, has received enormous attention globally in recent months.

Schools for those up the age of 16, bars and restaurants, shopping centres, and sports facilities, have all been allowed to remain open, while gatherings of up to 50 people have always been permitted.


Cafes, schools, bars and restaurants have all stayed open in Sweden during the course of the pandemic

The country's authorities have instead placed a heavy reliance on voluntary measures, with people asked to stay home if they have even light symptoms, to follow hygiene rules, and to keep their distance.

Doubts started to grow over the approach, however, when Sweden's death rate began in April to pull dramatically away from those of Denmark and Norway, which both imposed much more thoroughgoing restrictions.

Sweden's death rate, at 443 per million inhabitants, is now ten times that of Norway, four times that of Denmark, in line with that of France, and slowly catching up with that of Italy.

Tegnell has formerly largely laid the blame for Sweden's high death rate at the failure of the municipalities and private companies running the country's care homes to adequately protect the elderly.

TELEMMGLPICT000232106022_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQfyf2A9a6I9YchsjMeADBa08.jpegimwidth=480


The interview marked the first time he has also questioned his decision to impose such light restrictions.

But he said that because so many other countries have imposed blanket lockdowns, it remained difficult to know which measures, exactly, had made the difference.

"It would be good to know more precisely what to shut down to prevent the spread of infection better," he said.

"As it is, every country threw everything in right away. Sweden is one of the few countries that has worked up one stop at a time.
"Maybe we will know more when people start removing measures one at a time, then maybe we will get some kind of lesson about what else, besides what we did, you could do without imposing a total shutdown."
 
Bit by bit, more evidence emerges to suggest Lockdown was the only way to prevent mass deaths.

Let's hope we can take the lessons learned so far and work out how to respond if and when the second wave comes this autumn/winter.
 
How do you deal with someone who has a sense of entitlement. They can't be reasoned with. Now multiply that by xxx & you have your monster in the room. Complain all we might this problem won't be going away anytime soon.

If you want the world to right itself remove all warning labels.
 
How do you deal with someone who has a sense of entitlement. They can't be reasoned with. Now multiply that by xxx & you have your monster in the room. Complain all we might this problem won't be going away anytime soon.
Never a truer word or sentence.
 
Architect of Sweden's strategy regrets not imposing tougher lockdown

Anders Tegnell admitted that there is 'room for improvement' when it comes to the nation's lockdown strategy


By Richard Orange Malmö 3 June 2020 • 10:04am

TELEMMGLPICT000231915042_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqCceMXJtaZGMG8GkK7K3ZQt31yt1Ozzn7E-2cVAkQKfQ.jpegimwidth=480

Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has for the first time admitted that the Swedish approach perhaps did not go far enough

Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has admitted that Sweden should have imposed greater restrictions to bring the country's epidemic under control, the first time he has expressed doubts about his decision not to impose a lockdown.

In an interview with Sweden's state radio broadcaster SR, Tegnell said that, given the Sweden's stubbornly high death rate, he no longer believed that he, and The Public Health Agency of Sweden, had got the balance right.

"If we were hit by the same disease, knowing exactly what we know today, I think we would end up doing something between what Sweden has done, and what the rest of the world has done," he said. "I think there's certainly room for improvement in what we've done in Sweden, absolutely."

Sweden's coronavirus strategy, which is much less restrictive than that of any other developed country, has received enormous attention globally in recent months.

Schools for those up the age of 16, bars and restaurants, shopping centres, and sports facilities, have all been allowed to remain open, while gatherings of up to 50 people have always been permitted.


Cafes, schools, bars and restaurants have all stayed open in Sweden during the course of the pandemic

The country's authorities have instead placed a heavy reliance on voluntary measures, with people asked to stay home if they have even light symptoms, to follow hygiene rules, and to keep their distance.

Doubts started to grow over the approach, however, when Sweden's death rate began in April to pull dramatically away from those of Denmark and Norway, which both imposed much more thoroughgoing restrictions.

Sweden's death rate, at 443 per million inhabitants, is now ten times that of Norway, four times that of Denmark, in line with that of France, and slowly catching up with that of Italy.

Tegnell has formerly largely laid the blame for Sweden's high death rate at the failure of the municipalities and private companies running the country's care homes to adequately protect the elderly.

TELEMMGLPICT000232106022_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQfyf2A9a6I9YchsjMeADBa08.jpegimwidth=480


The interview marked the first time he has also questioned his decision to impose such light restrictions.

But he said that because so many other countries have imposed blanket lockdowns, it remained difficult to know which measures, exactly, had made the difference.

"It would be good to know more precisely what to shut down to prevent the spread of infection better," he said.

"As it is, every country threw everything in right away. Sweden is one of the few countries that has worked up one stop at a time.
"Maybe we will know more when people start removing measures one at a time, then maybe we will get some kind of lesson about what else, besides what we did, you could do without imposing a total shutdown."
Interesting to note that our death rate per million is higher at 592 per million according to Statista on June 3rd.
 
Architect of Sweden's strategy regrets not imposing tougher lockdown

Anders Tegnell admitted that there is 'room for improvement' when it comes to the nation's lockdown strategy


By Richard Orange Malmö 3 June 2020 • 10:04am

TELEMMGLPICT000231915042_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqCceMXJtaZGMG8GkK7K3ZQt31yt1Ozzn7E-2cVAkQKfQ.jpegimwidth=480

Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has for the first time admitted that the Swedish approach perhaps did not go far enough

Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has admitted that Sweden should have imposed greater restrictions to bring the country's epidemic under control, the first time he has expressed doubts about his decision not to impose a lockdown.

In an interview with Sweden's state radio broadcaster SR, Tegnell said that, given the Sweden's stubbornly high death rate, he no longer believed that he, and The Public Health Agency of Sweden, had got the balance right.

"If we were hit by the same disease, knowing exactly what we know today, I think we would end up doing something between what Sweden has done, and what the rest of the world has done," he said. "I think there's certainly room for improvement in what we've done in Sweden, absolutely."

Sweden's coronavirus strategy, which is much less restrictive than that of any other developed country, has received enormous attention globally in recent months.

Schools for those up the age of 16, bars and restaurants, shopping centres, and sports facilities, have all been allowed to remain open, while gatherings of up to 50 people have always been permitted.


Cafes, schools, bars and restaurants have all stayed open in Sweden during the course of the pandemic

The country's authorities have instead placed a heavy reliance on voluntary measures, with people asked to stay home if they have even light symptoms, to follow hygiene rules, and to keep their distance.

Doubts started to grow over the approach, however, when Sweden's death rate began in April to pull dramatically away from those of Denmark and Norway, which both imposed much more thoroughgoing restrictions.

Sweden's death rate, at 443 per million inhabitants, is now ten times that of Norway, four times that of Denmark, in line with that of France, and slowly catching up with that of Italy.

Tegnell has formerly largely laid the blame for Sweden's high death rate at the failure of the municipalities and private companies running the country's care homes to adequately protect the elderly.

TELEMMGLPICT000232106022_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpVlberWd9EgFPZtcLiMQfyf2A9a6I9YchsjMeADBa08.jpegimwidth=480


The interview marked the first time he has also questioned his decision to impose such light restrictions.

But he said that because so many other countries have imposed blanket lockdowns, it remained difficult to know which measures, exactly, had made the difference.

"It would be good to know more precisely what to shut down to prevent the spread of infection better," he said.

"As it is, every country threw everything in right away. Sweden is one of the few countries that has worked up one stop at a time.
"Maybe we will know more when people start removing measures one at a time, then maybe we will get some kind of lesson about what else, besides what we did, you could do without imposing a total shutdown."


It is way too early to pass any judgement on any approach to this virus.
 
Interesting to note that our death rate per million is higher at 592 per million according to Statista on June 3rd.

It was and I think it still is, but mostly you can now (there is solid evidence now) to three things 1) locking down later than almost everyone else 2) our demographics / living intensity and 3) our much higher rate of obesity

as of now, our death rate per million is in sharp decline, Sweden's isn't.
 
It is way too early to pass any judgement on any approach to this virus.

As I've said before, we need an evidence based approach, and we have to learn the lessons - I see today that after all the warnings from the French that you shouldn't take ibruprofen if you have the virus, far from this being accurate we are now to begin a trial where we give it as an intervention to stop the inflammation of the lungs and thus prevent lung failure deaths - and supposedly there is already much anecdotal evidence that it works!?
 
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50,000 coronavirus deaths as lockdown breaks down


Jemma Crew



Ian Jones

| 3rd June 2020

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There were 56,308 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 22 the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.



There have been 62,000 deaths in the UK during the coronavirus outbreak above what would normally be expected according to statistics released as the government diverges from the scientific advice and begins to dismantle a lockdown that has delivered a reduction in the loss of life.
There were 56,308 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 22, compared with the average number of deaths for that period over five years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
It follows figures last week showing the equivalent numbers for Scotland and Northern Ireland, which, when added together, take the total number of excess deaths in the UK across this period to 61,795.
Toll
In England and Wales, Covid-19 has been confirmed as being directly responsible for 77 percent of these excess deaths. All figures are based on death registrations.
Tuesday's ONS release takes number of deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK to just under 50,000.
Death registrations in England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland show 48,896 deaths in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, including suspected cases.
A further 819 hospital patients in England who had tested positive for Covid-19 died between May 23 and 31, according to figures published on Monday by NHS England, indicating the overall death toll for the UK is now just over 49,700.
The UK death toll is the highest in Europe and second highest in the world, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.
Sporadic
It comes as the number of weekly deaths involving coronavirus in England and Wales fell by almost a third in a week and reached its lowest level for seven weeks.
There were 2,589 deaths involving coronavirus in England and Wales registered in the week ending May 22, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
This is down 32 percent from the previous seven days, with 3,810 deaths involving coronavirus registered in the week ending May 15.
Professor Carl Heneghan said: "There's been a continued reduction in hospital deaths, care home outbreaks are coming down so the 'all deaths' by (week) 22 I'm expecting will be back to where we should be.
"The trend in the data suggests by the end of this month we should be in a period where we're starting to see no (Covid-19) deaths. But it also depends on what happens next, within sporadic outbreaks."
Death
He warned that there will be spikes in deaths with further outbreaks in care homes, and said information on how many people are catching the virus in hospital would "give us a really good understanding of the spreading of this disease".
Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at The Open University, said: "I certainly don't want to be a prophet of gloom, but I would urge some caution about these positive trends.
"The new week's data would not yet have been affected by the loosening of the lockdown. That began to happen in the previous week (ending May 15), though most changes occurred much more recently.
"If any of the changes turn out to have increased infections, that won't show up in death statistics yet anyway, because obviously there is a time gap between infection and death. But we'll see eventually."
The ONS said there were 12,288 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending May 22 - a drop of 2,285 from the previous week but still 2,348 more than the five-year average.
Trends
There were 1,289 excess deaths in care homes during the seven days, compared with the five-year average, and 24 fewer deaths in hospitals.
Professor McConway continued: "We've got to remember that, in this latest week of data, deaths are still running at a considerably higher level than they normally would, but the excess deaths are far below their peak level of almost 12,000 a week in mid-April."
Of all deaths registered by May 22, 43,837 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate - 15.3% of all deaths.
Detailed analysis on non-Covid-19 deaths will be published by the ONS on Friday.
Statisticians told a Science Media Centre briefing that the five-year average does not fully account for population and age trends and therefore non-Covid-19 excess deaths could be overestimated using this measure.
Care
Asked if he felt calculating excess deaths based on the five-year average is not a reliable measure for the impact of the pandemic, Professor Heneghan said: "Yeah, I think just taking a basic sum of five years and then trying to project the difference to the average of five years, doesn't take into (account) the nuances of some of the changes over time in the data.
Out of all deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales registered up to May 22 2020, 64 percent (28,159 deaths) occurred in hospital, the ONS said.
A further 29 percent (12,739 deaths) took place in care homes, with five percent (1,991) in private homes, one percent (582) in hospices, 0.4 percent (197) in other communal establishments, and 0.4 percent (169) elsewhere.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: "Every death from this virus is a tragedy and our deepest sympathies go out to everyone who has sadly lost loved ones.
"It has always been a priority to support the social care sector throughout this pandemic and we are working hard to make sure they have the equipment and support they need to tackle the virus.
 
The percentage increase in deaths over the 5 year average. And what is the variation in that 5 year average?
 
The percentage increase in deaths over the 5 year average. And what is the variation in that 5 year average?

I'm sure you can work it out from the ONS stats...

ON another related note, but more welcome one, just chatting to a doctor (GP) friend and said that they the country has had 11,000 less asthma related deaths during the covid - 19 crisis and around 3000 less cancer related deaths as well as reductions in deaths all across what they would have expected from serious illnesses.

Good explanations as to why, but they now need to do more work to quantify the reduction, but none the less, positive news.
 
I'm sure you can work it out from the ONS stats...

ON another related note, but more welcome one, just chatting to a doctor (GP) friend and said that they the country has had 11,000 less asthma related deaths during the covid - 19 crisis and around 3000 less cancer related deaths as well as reductions in deaths all across what they would have expected from serious illnesses.

Good explanations as to why, but they now need to do more work to quantify the reduction, but none the less, positive news.


Didn't that happen during the large North American blackout? Fewer deaths because people weren't getting treatments or operations or something like that?
 
Didn't that happen during the large North American blackout? Fewer deaths because people weren't getting treatments or operations or something like that?

Not sure about US, but the explanation is that (obviously) asthma suffers didn't have to deal with the same level of pollutants, cancer patients were self-isolating and so didn't get any secondary deadly infections because they were. A&E deaths were down because there were so few serious accidents and the other serious condition patients were all because of isolation - and of course because of less operations...

They also found that those people who had to be hospitalized and attend minor surgeries, would almost certainly have all gone straight to a&e but didn't.

he said the NHS thinks a bomb has gone of and will cause a huge rethink on how services are offered and consumed - so it could well be that the NHS is better structured and recourse applied more appropriately as they learn that much of their work can be delivered remotely.....or with less intervention..!

Serious food for thought in all that.