Covid 19

[shotshy]

So, coming back to post number one and the way covid had been counted, they have now reduced the total to just over 40k
Given that we know that over 20k were residents of care homes, then then true total to the general public has been around 20k.
Take off that the many fatalities that already had serious medical conditions and the risk to the fit, healthy population is really quite minimal in real terms.
It is obviously awful for anyone who has lost a loved one, but if we believe the experts who said that if we had locked down a week earlier, then 20 thousand lives would have been saved, then it stands to reason that if we had have done that, we would have had nearly zero deaths of the general population.

 

[markinkent]

"Lies, lies and statistics" they say. The fact we have no standard and agreed way of counting is crazy. Perhaps the WHO could determine a standard way of counting, not that the world would uniformly adopt it.

I think this one still has a long way to run yet.

 

[shotshy]

Of course mark, otherwise how do we square the circle of the U.K. having 250k infections and 40k deaths when India has a million infections but 20k deaths.
Basically someone is telling porkies.

 

[mozzer59]

Should listen to Trump...

“The United States Covid-19 deaths are lower than The World”

 

[Nobby_66]

Should listen to Trump...

“The United States Covid-19 deaths are lower than The World”

And if we stop testing, we will have no positive tests 🙂

 

[Nobby_66]

Of course mark, otherwise how do we square the circle of the U.K. having 250k infections and 40k deaths when India has a million infections but 20k deaths.
Basically someone is telling porkies.

China 84k cases, 4.6k deaths.


Yeah, right 🤔

 

[jogills]

So, coming back to post number one and the way covid had been counted, they have now reduced the total to just over 40k
Given that we know that over 20k were residents of care homes, then then true total to the general public has been around 20k.
Take off that the many fatalities that already had serious medical conditions and the risk to the fit, healthy population is really quite minimal in real terms.
It is obviously awful for anyone who has lost a loved one, but if we believe the experts who said that if we had locked down a week earlier, then 20 thousand lives would have been saved, then it stands to reason that if we had have done that, we would have had nearly zero deaths of the general population.

Blimey that's a pretty convenient interpretation of events to fit an argument. The figure being used was a nonsense but was originally chosen to make things look better. There was general agreement that excess deaths produced a fairer figure and that is higher still.

I'm not that fussed about absolute numbers but calculating that 20K fewer deaths from locking down earlier would have resulted in zero deaths in the population outside care homes is bonkers. Some of those deaths could have occurred outside, inside, anywhere. There is the glaring fact that care homes suffered so badly because we exported infection from hospitals straight into care homes, the most vulnerable setting. That might have been avoided and we certainly could have done better because comparable countries did.

Some studies have suggested that the average of lost years for male victims has been 134 and that for female victims 10 years. More importantly still it is emerging that some of the young, who had alsmost symptomless infection, are now showing signs of serious complications and after effects. This isn't a virus we can just ignore by sending the young back in and walling up the old. It's a continuing threat while ever infection is out in the community. It's a threat to the NHS, the care system, the economy and the health of all.

Hopefully we can slowly emerge into more interaction and a combination of better treatments, perhaps a vaccine and sensible precautions will allow us to live more expansively. We don't know very much at all about the virus and the winter season might bring new challenges.

 

[valenciagill]

So, coming back to post number one and the way covid had been counted, they have now reduced the total to just over 40k
Given that we know that over 20k were residents of care homes, then then true total to the general public has been around 20k.
Take off that the many fatalities that already had serious medical conditions and the risk to the fit, healthy population is really quite minimal in real terms.
It is obviously awful for anyone who has lost a loved one, but if we believe the experts who said that if we had locked down a week earlier, then 20 thousand lives would have been saved, then it stands to reason that if we had have done that, we would have had nearly zero deaths of the general population.

Wayne was claiming over 60k deaths , just before he was banned (2 months ago)

 

[SE1_Gills]

China 84k cases, 4.6k deaths.


Yeah, right 🤔

cant trust them (the Chinese govt) as far as you can throw them

 

[shotshy]

Blimey that's a pretty convenient interpretation of events to fit an argument. The figure being used was a nonsense but was originally chosen to make things look better. There was general agreement that excess deaths produced a fairer figure and that is higher still.

I'm not that fussed about absolute numbers but calculating that 20K fewer deaths from locking down earlier would have resulted in zero deaths in the population outside care homes is bonkers. Some of those deaths could have occurred outside, inside, anywhere. There is the glaring fact that care homes suffered so badly because we exported infection from hospitals straight into care homes, the most vulnerable setting. That might have been avoided and we certainly could have done better because comparable countries did.

Some studies have suggested that the average of lost years for male victims has been 134 and that for female victims 10 years. More importantly still it is emerging that some of the young, who had alsmost symptomless infection, are now showing signs of serious complications and after effects. This isn't a virus we can just ignore by sending the young back in and walling up the old. It's a continuing threat while ever infection is out in the community. It's a threat to the NHS, the care system, the economy and the health of all.

Hopefully we can slowly emerge into more interaction and a combination of better treatments, perhaps a vaccine and sensible precautions will allow us to live more expansively. We don't know very much at all about the virus and the winter season might bring new challenges.

Hopefully you realised that I was talking bollax which is pretty much the same as the declared covid figures 😁
The excess death figure will only be relevant in time.
If 2020 is very high but the next 4 are low, then the average will be the same.
Some are calling it the Boomer Remover.

 

[mozzer59]

Trump on Covid-19 testing.....

“Before I became President we didn’t even have a test for Coronavirus”

 

[valenciagill]

Trump on Covid-19 testing.....

“Before I became President we didn’t even have a test for Coronavirus”

Trump 2020👍

 

[mozzer59]

Trump 2020👍

Don’t know who I feel more sorry for? Trump’s stupidness or the millions of dickhead Americans who voted for the idiot!

 

[jogills]

Wayne was claiming over 60k deaths , just before he was banned (2 months ago)

Deaths within 28 days of a positive test result 41,366

Death cerificate mentions covid-19 56,195 (up to 31st July)

Deaths over and above the usual number of deaths at this time of year 63,810 (up to 31st July). This figure has been dropping and has been as high as 73,000

Bring back Wayne

 

[jogills]

Hopefully you realised that I was talking bollax which is pretty much the same as the declared covid figures 😁
The excess death figure will only be relevant in time.
If 2020 is very high but the next 4 are low, then the average will be the same.
Some are calling it the Boomer Remover.

Point taken re figures. I don't think they are utter bollax but they do need care ful reading and are not to be used like sports results.

The excess deaths figure is relevant now and over time. Certainly the final word on covid is a long way off.

Boomer Remover is a distasteful and inaccurate term. The boomer generation is defined as those born between 1946 & 1964, covid is far more deadly for the generation before that. I'm more concerned at the high level of deaths and serious illness amongst health professionals at every level, different ethnic groups and what the virus tells us about the comparative health and living conditions of our people. I don't think absolute number of deaths will be the most worrying aspect of this crisis. I think it will be the long tail of health management and individual health complications. That is why we need to chase the virus down rather than attempt to surrender/protect the older and let the rest keep the infection going.

 

[ARFUR CONNELL]

Blimey that's a pretty convenient interpretation of events to fit an argument. The figure being used was a nonsense but was originally chosen to make things look better. There was general agreement that excess deaths produced a fairer figure and that is higher still.

I'm not that fussed about absolute numbers but calculating that 20K fewer deaths from locking down earlier would have resulted in zero deaths in the population outside care homes is bonkers. Some of those deaths could have occurred outside, inside, anywhere. There is the glaring fact that care homes suffered so badly because we exported infection from hospitals straight into care homes, the most vulnerable setting. That might have been avoided and we certainly could have done better because comparable countries did.

Some studies have suggested that the average of lost years for male victims has been 134 and that for female victims 10 years. More importantly still it is emerging that some of the young, who had alsmost symptomless infection, are now showing signs of serious complications and after effects. This isn't a virus we can just ignore by sending the young back in and walling up the old. It's a continuing threat while ever infection is out in the community. It's a threat to the NHS, the care system, the economy and the health of all.

Hopefully we can slowly emerge into more interaction and a combination of better treatments, perhaps a vaccine and sensible precautions will allow us to live more expansively. We don't know very much at all about the virus and the winter season might bring new challenges.

Does anyone actually know whether hospital exports were to blame, or care home visitors/workers passed on the infection. Seems likely that there was a combination of both.

 

[Gills 58]

So, coming back to post number one and the way covid had been counted, they have now reduced the total to just over 40k
Given that we know that over 20k were residents of care homes, then then true total to the general public has been around 20k.
Take off that the many fatalities that already had serious medical conditions and the risk to the fit, healthy population is really quite minimal in real terms.
It is obviously awful for anyone who has lost a loved one, but if we believe the experts who said that if we had locked down a week earlier, then 20 thousand lives would have been saved, then it stands to reason that if we had have done that, we would have had nearly zero deaths of the general population.

Had a laugh at that final number Shotshy. Don't know if that was a whoosh tbh. It was reckoned that the death rate would have been halved had we gone into lockdown a week earlier. Hence 10,000 extra deaths if we don't count care homes.

 

[Nobby_66]

Does anyone actually know whether hospital exports were to blame, or care home visitors/workers passed on the infection. Seems likely that there was a combination of both.

I believe it was both. I read a report that claimed hospitals were falsifying discharge paperwork to hide potential covid19 symptoms in patients returning to care homes. They showed a form that asked if covid symptoms were present, a 'Y' was crossed out and replaced with an 'N'. The patient's temperature on discharge had also been changed.
Not sure how widespread this was but very worrying if proven to be true.