Not dictatorship we need but a bit more politeness, fellow feeling and imagination regarding a world beyond our own time span. We have made a fetish of personal choice and entitlement backed up by statute and legal rulings. That's great for general oneupmanship but not so great for covid and all the other problems we are beginning to face.
Covid 19
- Thread starter shotshy
- Start date
You would be right if we had that kind of society. There is a unfortunately a significant minority in the "I'll do what I want" mindset. As I often say to my team at work the measures we are putting in are less about protecting you but more about protecting your colleagues. We n3eed a few more boy scouts for those who remember the motto.
So, coming back to post number one and the way covid had been counted, they have now reduced the total to just over 40k
Given that we know that over 20k were residents of care homes, then then true total to the general public has been around 20k.
Take off that the many fatalities that already had serious medical conditions and the risk to the fit, healthy population is really quite minimal in real terms.
It is obviously awful for anyone who has lost a loved one, but if we believe the experts who said that if we had locked down a week earlier, then 20 thousand lives would have been saved, then it stands to reason that if we had have done that, we would have had nearly zero deaths of the general population.
Given that we know that over 20k were residents of care homes, then then true total to the general public has been around 20k.
Take off that the many fatalities that already had serious medical conditions and the risk to the fit, healthy population is really quite minimal in real terms.
It is obviously awful for anyone who has lost a loved one, but if we believe the experts who said that if we had locked down a week earlier, then 20 thousand lives would have been saved, then it stands to reason that if we had have done that, we would have had nearly zero deaths of the general population.
Blimey that's a pretty convenient interpretation of events to fit an argument. The figure being used was a nonsense but was originally chosen to make things look better. There was general agreement that excess deaths produced a fairer figure and that is higher still.
I'm not that fussed about absolute numbers but calculating that 20K fewer deaths from locking down earlier would have resulted in zero deaths in the population outside care homes is bonkers. Some of those deaths could have occurred outside, inside, anywhere. There is the glaring fact that care homes suffered so badly because we exported infection from hospitals straight into care homes, the most vulnerable setting. That might have been avoided and we certainly could have done better because comparable countries did.
Some studies have suggested that the average of lost years for male victims has been 134 and that for female victims 10 years. More importantly still it is emerging that some of the young, who had alsmost symptomless infection, are now showing signs of serious complications and after effects. This isn't a virus we can just ignore by sending the young back in and walling up the old. It's a continuing threat while ever infection is out in the community. It's a threat to the NHS, the care system, the economy and the health of all.
Hopefully we can slowly emerge into more interaction and a combination of better treatments, perhaps a vaccine and sensible precautions will allow us to live more expansively. We don't know very much at all about the virus and the winter season might bring new challenges.
I'm not that fussed about absolute numbers but calculating that 20K fewer deaths from locking down earlier would have resulted in zero deaths in the population outside care homes is bonkers. Some of those deaths could have occurred outside, inside, anywhere. There is the glaring fact that care homes suffered so badly because we exported infection from hospitals straight into care homes, the most vulnerable setting. That might have been avoided and we certainly could have done better because comparable countries did.
Some studies have suggested that the average of lost years for male victims has been 134 and that for female victims 10 years. More importantly still it is emerging that some of the young, who had alsmost symptomless infection, are now showing signs of serious complications and after effects. This isn't a virus we can just ignore by sending the young back in and walling up the old. It's a continuing threat while ever infection is out in the community. It's a threat to the NHS, the care system, the economy and the health of all.
Hopefully we can slowly emerge into more interaction and a combination of better treatments, perhaps a vaccine and sensible precautions will allow us to live more expansively. We don't know very much at all about the virus and the winter season might bring new challenges.
Point taken re figures. I don't think they are utter bollax but they do need care ful reading and are not to be used like sports results.
The excess deaths figure is relevant now and over time. Certainly the final word on covid is a long way off.
Boomer Remover is a distasteful and inaccurate term. The boomer generation is defined as those born between 1946 & 1964, covid is far more deadly for the generation before that. I'm more concerned at the high level of deaths and serious illness amongst health professionals at every level, different ethnic groups and what the virus tells us about the comparative health and living conditions of our people. I don't think absolute number of deaths will be the most worrying aspect of this crisis. I think it will be the long tail of health management and individual health complications. That is why we need to chase the virus down rather than attempt to surrender/protect the older and let the rest keep the infection going.
The excess deaths figure is relevant now and over time. Certainly the final word on covid is a long way off.
Boomer Remover is a distasteful and inaccurate term. The boomer generation is defined as those born between 1946 & 1964, covid is far more deadly for the generation before that. I'm more concerned at the high level of deaths and serious illness amongst health professionals at every level, different ethnic groups and what the virus tells us about the comparative health and living conditions of our people. I don't think absolute number of deaths will be the most worrying aspect of this crisis. I think it will be the long tail of health management and individual health complications. That is why we need to chase the virus down rather than attempt to surrender/protect the older and let the rest keep the infection going.
I believe it was both. I read a report that claimed hospitals were falsifying discharge paperwork to hide potential covid19 symptoms in patients returning to care homes. They showed a form that asked if covid symptoms were present, a 'Y' was crossed out and replaced with an 'N'. The patient's temperature on discharge had also been changed.
Not sure how widespread this was but very worrying if proven to be true.
Not sure how widespread this was but very worrying if proven to be true.
