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Coronavirus

Social care is a
Sincilbanks said:
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is asked what help care homes will be offered to deliver tests for staff and residents.
Mr Raab replies the government is doing "everything possible" in this area, although he acknowledges "distribution issue".
Asked whether care home testing could have begun sooner, Prof Yvonne Doyle says the "scale and speed" of the epidemic has been seen "really in the last couple of weeks".
She adds that care homes are a "complex sector to get to," including many different providers.

This is complete bu**s**t, the absence of testing has been at the heart of every problem this country has had in tackling the virus. To say that "scale and speed of the epidemic has been seen really in the last couple of weeks" is to defy credulity. It's an epidemic, it's what happens ffs...
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Social care is a national scandal that massively predates the coronavirus pandemic. There are so many issues there I literally don't know where to start.
 
Sincilbanks said:
The plural of anecdote is not data.
Correlation does not equal causation
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Fair point Sincilbanks, and for sure I need to watch the veracity of my wording at times... especially where evidence and cause are involved.

Therefore, in the interests of clarification and the reasons behind the debate on child vaccines and autism, it's probably worth digging a little deeper.

First off, there is some seemingly balanced medical discussion on links between vaccines and epilepsy & autism here:

https://www.autismspeaks.org/expert...s-epilepsy-and-autism-your-questions-answered

...So it would appear there is quite limited understanding of what causes autism generally - “Currently, we can determine a specific cause of a child’s autism only 10 to 15 percent of the time.“

...and that there appears to be some link to febrile seizures and epilepsy - “We know that between 2 and 4 percent of children who experience febrile seizures will go on to develop epilepsy.“

“There is no scientific evidence linking febrile seizures to autism. However, it’s true that epilepsy and autism do commonly occur together – for reasons we don’t fully understand.”

Given that the WHO data on vaccine reactions (see link below) makes specific mention of febrile seizures being a 'severe adverse event', then you can start to see where and why people have joined the dots - particularly if those people are parents of children whose lives have been irrevocably damaged following admission of the MMR vaccine.

So in terms of my understanding of the current scientific data and knowledge:

1. The MMR vaccine is known to cause febrile seizures in some children - according to WHO data and reports.

2. 2-4% of children who experience febrile seizures will go on to develop epilepsy.

3. Epilepsy and autism commonly occur together, but scientists/medical professionals do not yet know why.

4. A cause of autism is not known or understood in 85-90% of children.

This chain most certainly leaves question marks for me, and with such a high level of unknown, completely dismissing links between vaccines and autism at this stage, or writing off people who have these concerns as 'nutters' or 'cranks' would seem somewhat premature. After all, there have been plenty of examples in history of science/data/experts telling us that something isn't harmful whatsoever (the DDT pesticide being one), only to then find out the opposite is true when more time, research and improved technology and understanding come into play.

On this basis, I'll certainly be keeping an open mind on any miracle vaccine that arrives for Covid-19.

https://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/initiative/tools/MMR_vaccine_rates_information_sheet.pdf

PS: Good pods by the way... enjoyed those last night.
 
NottyImp said:
However, current reports suggesting that UK hospital covid-19 admissions fatality rate is 35%.

I think people really need to understand that this is a bastard little critter.
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For those over 65 and particularly those in that age group with underlying health conditions like hypertension, heart disease and diabetes, it's absolutely lethal (and anyone suggesting otherwise really needs to take a long hard look at the Covid cases data). In Malaysia for example, 90% of their 99 recorded fatalities fall into either the older age bracket and/or those with serious underlying health conditions.

For the wider population though, the virus is not "a bastard little critter" - certainly not on the direct health impacts (at least going on the patterns of data we currently have). It very much is though when you consider the damage done to people's jobs and livelihoods because of the Covid lockdowns. I'm sure I saw a headline on the BBC yesterday that something like a third of the world's population could be put out of work in the coming months/years due to the economic repercussions of the virus response. If that turns out to be true, then "bastard little critter" doesn't even come close to cutting it on fair labels for Covid-19. And I'm already seeing very worrying reports from India of people left starving because of the lockdowns. That truly is heart-breaking stuff.

The 35% fatality rate in UK hospitals for sure is a further concern and certainly encourages me to dig a little deeper into the reasons why it is this high. My first thought is that presumably the people being admitted to hospital are already very sick (?), and as a result their chances of mortality are significantly higher. Secondly, what treatments are being used and are they right for each person? There's been some interesting stories around about the treatments used around the world... this one for example (of a 44-year old, previously healthy doctor in the States) from the LA Times. Would seem that keeping him on a ventilator would have probably finished him off:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/coworkers-save-coronavirus-doctor

I did a bit of digging yesterday on Lincolnshire... just over 800 cases in the county population of 755,000 (0.1%) with I think 97 deaths (0.01%) so thankfully cases appear under control there. Long may that continue.
 
79imp said:
For those over 65 and particularly those in that age group with underlying health conditions like hypertension, heart disease and diabetes, it's absolutely lethal (and anyone suggesting otherwise really needs to take a long hard look at the Covid cases data). In Malaysia for example, 90% of their 99 recorded fatalities fall into either the older age bracket and/or those with serious underlying health conditions.

For the wider population though, the virus is not "a bastard little critter" - certainly not on the direct health impacts (at least going on the patterns of data we currently have). It very much is though when you consider the damage done to people's jobs and livelihoods because of the Covid lockdowns. I'm sure I saw a headline on the BBC yesterday that something like a third of the world's population could be put out of work in the coming months/years due to the economic repercussions of the virus response. If that turns out to be true, then "bastard little critter" doesn't even come close to cutting it on fair labels for Covid-19. And I'm already seeing very worrying reports from India of people left starving because of the lockdowns. That truly is heart-breaking stuff.

The 35% fatality rate in UK hospitals for sure is a further concern and certainly encourages me to dig a little deeper into the reasons why it is this high. My first thought is that presumably the people being admitted to hospital are already very sick (?), and as a result their chances of mortality are significantly higher. Secondly, what treatments are being used and are they right for each person? There's been some interesting stories around about the treatments used around the world... this one for example (of a 44-year old, previously healthy doctor in the States) from the LA Times. Would seem that keeping him on a ventilator would have probably finished him off:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/coworkers-save-coronavirus-doctor

I did a bit of digging yesterday on Lincolnshire... just over 800 cases in the county population of 755,000 (0.1%) with I think 97 deaths (0.01%) so thankfully cases appear under control there. Long may that continue.
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There's definitely a discussion to be had about not making the cure worse than the disease in many different senses. I see reports that cancer patients have not been receiving treatment. You certainly don't want to end up with more "collateral" deaths from causes like that.

The point about that, though, is that better pandemic planning takes account of exactly those problems and aims to avoid overloading the health system so that it can't treat anything other than the virus. I think we have manifestly failed to do that in this country, but we're probably not the only one guilty of that.

In terms of economic impacts, difficult decisions have to be taken. Are jobs more important then lives? What about, as you say, poorer countries where people may starve as a result of government actions to contain the virus?

Again, good pandemic planning looks at those issues and comes up with ways to mitigate them. I don't think we've succeeded at that in the UK, either.
 
NottyImp said:
There's definitely a discussion to be had about not making the cure worse than the disease in many different senses. I see reports that cancer patients have not been receiving treatment. You certainly don't want to end up with more "collateral" deaths from causes like that.

The point about that, though, is that better pandemic planning takes account of exactly those problems and aims to avoid overloading the health system so that it can't treat anything other than the virus. I think we have manifestly failed to do that in this country, but we're probably not the only one guilty of that.

In terms of economic impacts, difficult decisions have to be taken. Are jobs more important then lives? What about, as you say, poorer countries where people may starve as a result of government actions to contain the virus?

Again, good pandemic planning looks at those issues and comes up with ways to mitigate them. I don't think we've succeeded at that in the UK, either.
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All really good points mate.

My concern on jobs all along has been that if the lockdowns extend for too long, then people's economic situation will unquestionably impact not just on quality of lives, but on life itself.

In the most extreme cases, that would mean starvation in third world countries and all the attendant health issues that brings. Closer to home, could that mean huge spikes in crime or a worsening of the already fragile situation of mental health, domestic abuse and isolation... not to mention the impact on people suffering from other life-threatening ailments as you quite rightly point out.

Because of lockdowns, I do worry that everyone's life is at stake to differing degrees. Therefore, as we already know which groups are most susceptible to the disease, should the shift now be on making sure we protect and cocoon them, but let others get back to saving their livelihoods? At least that way, there is surely a fighting chance of keeping some sort of functioning and stable society together? It's potentially a very grim picture I know, but for this reason I do often find myself wishing the rhetoric in the press and in the government is much less on how we got here (e.g. planning for a pandemic unprecedented in over 100 years), but more on how we get out of it and learn lessons for the future. In fairness, I have seen more talk on that front in the last week or so.

Sweden is of course an interesting case as they have avoided lockdowns from the start - and have received an awful lot of criticism for it. This interview is therefore quite interesting:


Japan is another place I've been watching with great interest from the start; and is another place that has been pilloried in many quarters for its lack of testing and lockdowns. Yet for an incredibly densely populated country of 127 million, shouldn't we actually be saying that their current level of 425 deaths and just under 14,000 cases is a major 'success'... certainly in the light of the figures in countries like Italy, Spain and the UK?
 
79imp said:
All really good points mate.

My concern on jobs all along has been that if the lockdowns extend for too long, then people's economic situation will unquestionably impact not just on quality of lives, but on life itself.

In the most extreme cases, that would mean starvation in third world countries and all the attendant health issues that brings. Closer to home, could that mean huge spikes in crime or a worsening of the already fragile situation of mental health, domestic abuse and isolation... not to mention the impact on people suffering from other life-threatening ailments as you quite rightly point out.

Because of lockdowns, I do worry that everyone's life is at stake to differing degrees. Therefore, as we already know which groups are most susceptible to the disease, should the shift now be on making sure we protect and cocoon them, but let others get back to saving their livelihoods? At least that way, there is surely a fighting chance of keeping some sort of functioning and stable society together? It's potentially a very grim picture I know, but for this reason I do often find myself wishing the rhetoric in the press and in the government is much less on how we got here (e.g. planning for a pandemic unprecedented in over 100 years), but more on how we get out of it and learn lessons for the future. In fairness, I have seen more talk on that front in the last week or so.

Sweden is of course an interesting case as they have avoided lockdowns from the start - and have received an awful lot of criticism for it. This interview is therefore quite interesting:


Japan is another place I've been watching with great interest from the start; and is another place that has been pilloried in many quarters for its lack of testing and lockdowns. Yet for an incredibly densely populated country of 127 million, shouldn't we actually be saying that their current level of 425 deaths and just under 14,000 cases is a major 'success'... certainly in the light of the figures in countries like Italy, Spain and the UK?
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Valid points. The problem is, we fucked it up early doors and are now trying to play catch-up. We let the virus spread to the point where other strategies would probably not have worked and we ended up with one option: lock-down. Italy, France, Spain and the US similarly.

Whatever works - and there is still a debate to be had about that, for sure - you *have* to do it early. You also need to be prepared, and we weren't.

So, it's very much a case now of: we are where we are. Or, as the Irish say when you ask directions: "If you want to go there, I wouldn't be starting from here."

BTW: that video looks like the Swedish guy? I think he was interviewed on that channel before Neil Ferguson, whose video I have watched. I will probably watch that one as well, when I get a moment.
 
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I did a bit of digging yesterday on Lincolnshire... just over 800 cases in the county population of 755,000 (0.1%) with I think 97 deaths (0.01%) so thankfully cases appear under control there. Long may that continue.

We're not testing, we have no idea how many cases there are...
 
NottyImp said:
However, current reports suggesting that UK hospital covid-19 admissions fatality rate is 35%.

I think people really need to understand that this is a bastard little critter.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with you , it is a "bastard little critter" and its so sad people have lost their lives. There are off course other "bastard little critters " that cost the lives of many more people .

However people do recover from it . so why not put out the figures of those that do recover . so why not publish them . Stugeon does for Scotland and the Welsh do also . Why not England in the briefing ?? .
 
79imp said:
All really good points mate.

My concern on jobs all along has been that if the lockdowns extend for too long, then people's economic situation will unquestionably impact not just on quality of lives, but on life itself.

In the most extreme cases, that would mean starvation in third world countries and all the attendant health issues that brings. Closer to home, could that mean huge spikes in crime or a worsening of the already fragile situation of mental health, domestic abuse and isolation... not to mention the impact on people suffering from other life-threatening ailments as you quite rightly point out.

Because of lockdowns, I do worry that everyone's life is at stake to differing degrees. Therefore, as we already know which groups are most susceptible to the disease, should the shift now be on making sure we protect and cocoon them, but let others get back to saving their livelihoods? At least that way, there is surely a fighting chance of keeping some sort of functioning and stable society together? It's potentially a very grim picture I know, but for this reason I do often find myself wishing the rhetoric in the press and in the government is much less on how we got here (e.g. planning for a pandemic unprecedented in over 100 years), but more on how we get out of it and learn lessons for the future. In fairness, I have seen more talk on that front in the last week or so.

Sweden is of course an interesting case as they have avoided lockdowns from the start - and have received an awful lot of criticism for it. This interview is therefore quite interesting:


Japan is another place I've been watching with great interest from the start; and is another place that has been pilloried in many quarters for its lack of testing and lockdowns. Yet for an incredibly densely populated country of 127 million, shouldn't we actually be saying that their current level of 425 deaths and just under 14,000 cases is a major 'success'... certainly in the light of the figures in countries like Italy, Spain and the UK?
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And see Neil Ferguson's rebuttal, put in the this thread earlier. No-one has successfully protected their vulnerable people, in fact Swedish experts describe their attempts as a "tragic failure". Ferguson estimates in the video I linked that if attempts to shield the vulnerable were 80% successful we are consigning 100,000 people to their deaths.

If Japan isn't testing they don't know how many cases they have either.

Sweden has received a lot of criticism from experts within Sweden, not just elsewhere.
 
79imp said:
Fair point Sincilbanks, and for sure I need to watch the veracity of my wording at times... especially where evidence and cause are involved.

Therefore, in the interests of clarification and the reasons behind the debate on child vaccines and autism, it's probably worth digging a little deeper.

First off, there is some seemingly balanced medical discussion on links between vaccines and epilepsy & autism here:

https://www.autismspeaks.org/expert...s-epilepsy-and-autism-your-questions-answered

...So it would appear there is quite limited understanding of what causes autism generally - “Currently, we can determine a specific cause of a child’s autism only 10 to 15 percent of the time.“

...and that there appears to be some link to febrile seizures and epilepsy - “We know that between 2 and 4 percent of children who experience febrile seizures will go on to develop epilepsy.“

“There is no scientific evidence linking febrile seizures to autism. However, it’s true that epilepsy and autism do commonly occur together – for reasons we don’t fully understand.”

Given that the WHO data on vaccine reactions (see link below) makes specific mention of febrile seizures being a 'severe adverse event', then you can start to see where and why people have joined the dots - particularly if those people are parents of children whose lives have been irrevocably damaged following admission of the MMR vaccine.

So in terms of my understanding of the current scientific data and knowledge:

1. The MMR vaccine is known to cause febrile seizures in some children - according to WHO data and reports.

2. 2-4% of children who experience febrile seizures will go on to develop epilepsy.

3. Epilepsy and autism commonly occur together, but scientists/medical professionals do not yet know why.

4. A cause of autism is not known or understood in 85-90% of children.

This chain most certainly leaves question marks for me, and with such a high level of unknown, completely dismissing links between vaccines and autism at this stage, or writing off people who have these concerns as 'nutters' or 'cranks' would seem somewhat premature. After all, there have been plenty of examples in history of science/data/experts telling us that something isn't harmful whatsoever (the DDT pesticide being one), only to then find out the opposite is true when more time, research and improved technology and understanding come into play.

On this basis, I'll certainly be keeping an open mind on any miracle vaccine that arrives for Covid-19.

https://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/initiative/tools/MMR_vaccine_rates_information_sheet.pdf

PS: Good pods by the way... enjoyed those last night.
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From your very own source..

Over the last two decades, extensive research has asked whether there is any link between childhood vaccinations and autism. The results of this research are clear: Vaccines do not cause autism.
 
cheshireimp said:
Totally agree with you , it is a "bastard little critter" and its so sad people have lost their lives. There are off course other "bastard little critters " that cost the lives of many more people .

However people do recover from it . so why not put out the figures of those that do recover . so why not publish them . Stugeon does for Scotland and the Welsh do also . Why not England in the briefing ?? .
Click to expand...

I think we have an increasingly secretive government in the UK. The SAGE group membership was secret until pressure to release details, for example. The government also won't release the figure of how many of its 18000 tracers it has actually recruited.

We live in a time when politicians will simply lie to their citizens with no consequences.
 
"For the wider population though, the virus is not "a bastard little critter" - certainly not on the direct health impacts (at least going on the patterns of data we currently have)."

There's certainly a strong correlation with age and, eventually, we'll get a graph on that. I also think there's evidence that men are more vulnerable than women, so it must be a feminist virus (joke!). Other folks with an underlying health condition such as diabetes and asthma (I have chronic asthma, btw) are also probably more vulnerable, regardless of age.

The data probably isn't in yet, but if you were to tot up all those in a vulnerable group, I'm guessing it could be millions of people from wildly different demographics and personal situations. I'm not sure how you shield all those people when the virus is already wide-spread in the population and is highly contagious. Again, "go in hard, go in early" would have massively helped with such a strategy, but we didn't do that.
 
NottyImp said:
I think we have an increasingly secretive government in the UK. The SAGE group membership was secret until pressure to release details, for example. The government also won't release the figure of how many of its 18000 tracers it has actually recruited.

We live in a time when politicians will simply lie to their citizens with no consequences.
Click to expand...

A very fair assessment of politicians
 
cheshireimp said:
Totally agree with you , it is a "bastard little critter" and its so sad people have lost their lives. There are off course other "bastard little critters " that cost the lives of many more people .

However people do recover from it . so why not put out the figures of those that do recover . so why not publish them . Stugeon does for Scotland and the Welsh do also . Why not England in the briefing ?? .
Click to expand...

You can see any stats you want here:
https://covid19.wavefront.com/dashb..._v01(g:(d:2419200,ls:!t,s:1585833657,w:'4w'))
 
I think most countries missed the boat with Covid 19 we locked down at least 10 days to late, 391 deaths in England-in the figures for today so we are getting on top of it but this is going to take a long time to sort.

I couldn’t believe at the very start that people from China were flying all over the world with no restrictions at all.

If we do manage to produce a vaccine in September can you imagine the timescale to produce 65 million vaccines and then to issue them.

It is mind blowing the damage that this virus is doing I just cannot see how places like pubs, restaurants, hairdressers and dentists can open without a vaccine been produced.

One interesting point an engineer came to fix an issue we had with some plant and he had been on a job in London and had driven through parts where it was almost like a normal day people crowding round markets etc not much sign of a lockdown there.
 
The reality is that for healthy people under 50 with no underlying health issues - or not obese, the chances of dying from it are incredibly slim

For age group 20-29 about 2 million/1
For age group 30-39 about 500,000/1
For age group 40-49 about 200,000/1

There's no real need for anyone in those age groups to be held in this current stasis, and anyone over 50 is mature enough to make their own mind up about whether they want to take the risk of returning to a more normal life.
 
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