I watched an interesting interview with medical / scientific expert yesterday. Much has been made of a pandemic exercise run in 2016 by the NHS and on the back of that why the NHS didn't have even more stocks of PPE in reserve. He did say that exercise was run on the basis of a flu pandemic, which was less contagious and a lower incident of the need for critical care. He said on that basis it would not have modelled the astronomical higher need for PPE we are seeing with coronavirus. It has also exposed the fact that we have become too over reliant on supplies of PPE from overseas, particularly China. And the whole world are chasing those same supply sources. We need to make strategic supplies in this country in future.
Another interesting article from a couple of medics yesterday was on the nature of the development of the virus and symptoms. They said it actually was more like altitude sickness where there is an oxygen deprivation but the muscles in the lungs are still working for the majority of even seriously ill patients. In such circumstances a CPAP machine is more appropriate. Such a machine helps by pushing higher concentrations and pressure of oxygen into the lungs through a mask or tube up the nose. The patient breathes themselves with this help and are not sedated with an invasive ventilator. I believe Boris had a CPAP machine. The 2 medics say too many patients across the world have been put on ventilators too soon (as if they had been treating pneumonia in all cases rather than this new virus). Interestingly, UK manufacturers have already produced at least 10k additional CPAP machines and are starting to produce and release additional ventilators. And it looking like we won't even need the existing capacity of ventilators.
I note that Japan (the country that was adamant it wanted to go ahead with the Olympics) has now declared a national emergency as cases and deaths are now growing again in a second occurrence and they are warning their hospitals could be overwhelmed. It is also clear they are having difficulty identifying all cases.
There are still so many unknowns and learning still to be done on this virus and with a mass vaccine probably still 8 or 10 months away, then it is sensible to proceed gradually. In doing so Governments around the world need to be transparent about their planning and the reasons why certain restrictions or different ways of working, travelling and living may be necessary.