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Coronavirus

The Fear said:
This is VERY interesting and nicely optimistic.

I don't usually cut and paste, but this was from a friend who got The Telegraph newsletter. So as this is so important I am sure they won't be worrying about copyright right now.

There is cautious optimism in the Government and among its scientific advisers that with the current measures in place, the NHS should be able to cope with the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Britain.

– Stay at home. It’s working –

Dr Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, whose modelling has been central to Government decision making, told MPs yesterday that while there might be some individual spots of high pressure, at a national level the NHS would not exceed capacity.

He also said that the number of deaths may be below the “best case” 20,000 he outlined a few days ago, and that perhaps two-thirds of those deaths were likely to be of people who would have died this year of other causes.

This does not mean that the UK is out of the woods at all. While the peak in the number of cases is now expected in the next two to three weeks, one rather substantial question still hangs over the country (and the world): when can we get back to normal?

To answer that question, scientists need to know a lot more about the epidemic and the virus itself.

– The battle of the models –

Assuming the current models are correct, a best-case scenario for the coming months in the UK might look something like South Korea. With mass testing, contact tracing and isolation, life might be able to return to some kind of normality, but with a return to more stringent measures on a hair trigger.

As Dr Ferguson told MPs yesterday, it became clear early on that the UK did not have the testing capacity to take that route at the beginning of the outbreak, but it could do so in a few weeks.

But the key thing to know is how widespread the virus actually is. A study from Oxford University this week caused a stir by finding that Covid-19 might have arrived in the UK a month earlier than thought and that 50 per cent of the population could have it already.

That would match up with our report today that the UK’s patient zero could actually be a British tourist who returned from a skiing holiday with the virus back in January.

If correct, it would mean that the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic, with hospitalisation rates possibly as low as one in one thousand, and that herd immunity may actually already be close. If so, the lockdown could be short-lived.

Government scientists have not ruled out the modelling being correct.

Equally, a symptom-tracking app developed by scientists at King’s College London suggests that the infection level could be one in 10 at the moment. That’s higher than the current modelling being used, but nowhere near as high as the Oxford study found.
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It's all speculation though, isn't it?

It seems like more magical thinking from the British Government.
 
Fulford said:
Seven Russian warships showing high levels of activity in the English Channel and the North Sea.

Is Putin hoping to catch us off our guard?
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No, it’s just thursday’s game. Monday’s game is sending fighter jets into U.K. airspace.

One day an EU nation will pop a Russian fighter out of the sky Turkey style - that’ll be interesting.
 
danvilla2 said:
No, it’s just thursday’s game. Monday’s game is sending fighter jets into U.K. airspace.

One day an EU nation will pop a Russian fighter out of the sky Turkey style - that’ll be interesting.
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What would the Russians do if Britain blew up one of their planes in British airspace?

Is Britain dependant on Russian gas?
 
Cat owners fear they will catch coronavirus from their pets with some asking for them to be rehomed, an animal charity has said. Iris's Cats In Need in Stoke-on-Trent has received several calls from owners worrying their pets will make them sick.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-52047832
200.webp
 
BodyButter said:
What would the Russians do if Britain blew up one of their planes in British airspace?

Is Britain dependant on Russian gas?
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I guess we take Russian gas, but I don’t know if we’re dependant per se, isn’t that why we are keen to explore shale? Germany takes a lot of Russian gas, so after Brexit and all that, the landscape becomes more neutral.

I suspect if that happened, Russia would target trying to play games in the Baltic states first and seeing if we go another step.

There didn’t seem like much of a fall out between Erdogan and Putin though from that, I guess turkey bought a few more Russian arms to compensate.
 
danvilla2 said:
I guess we take Russian gas, but I don’t know if we’re dependant per se, isn’t that why we are keen to explore shale? Germany takes a lot of Russian gas, so after Brexit and all that, the landscape becomes more neutral.

I suspect if that happened, Russia would target trying to play games in the Baltic states first and seeing if we go another step.

There didn’t seem like much of a fall out between Erdogan and Putin though from that, I guess turkey bought a few more Russian arms to compensate.
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According to Google, less than 1% of the gas in Britain comes from Russia. Shoot away, boys!
 
This is what 'our lot' were on about yesterday. The only thing worse than not having a testing kit, is a bad testing kit. They are being cautious and making sure it works first.

Still not entirely sure they couldn't have got this done before mind you, (really, mean it, not entirely sure, not passing it off as fact or point scoring) as they did know this virus was coming

As Alan Johnson said on newsnight (having been home sec during the swine flu epedemic) the time for questions is after, you have an enquiry and everyone gets everything off their chest. Perfectly reasonable.
 
BodyButter said:
According to Google, less than 1% of the gas in Britain comes from Russia. Shoot away, boys!
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Old numbers (2015) but Germany was above 30% reliance. I don’t foresee Russian being a physical threat to us unless there’s big problems in Europe and we refuse to back each other.

A huge threat to our IT infrastructure and no doubt the sores of corona is giving them a few ideas to plant stuff here.

Another topic of debate though
 
Fulford said:
Is this why China are reporting that their numbers have reduced so much.
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It was one batch - not all. It seems their order was two different types of tests, and the one taking longer to give a result (ironically) had the wrong sensitivity levels.

If that test (and it applies to all of that type of test) has been in widespread use, that would explain some of the numbers. Possibly not the reduction though, as China are now in phase 2 of the outbreak having opened back up more.
 
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