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Coronavirus

This is VERY interesting and nicely optimistic.

I don't usually cut and paste, but this was from a friend who got The Telegraph newsletter. So as this is so important I am sure they won't be worrying about copyright right now.

There is cautious optimism in the Government and among its scientific advisers that with the current measures in place, the NHS should be able to cope with the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Britain.

– Stay at home. It’s working –

Dr Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, whose modelling has been central to Government decision making, told MPs yesterday that while there might be some individual spots of high pressure, at a national level the NHS would not exceed capacity.

He also said that the number of deaths may be below the “best case” 20,000 he outlined a few days ago, and that perhaps two-thirds of those deaths were likely to be of people who would have died this year of other causes.

This does not mean that the UK is out of the woods at all. While the peak in the number of cases is now expected in the next two to three weeks, one rather substantial question still hangs over the country (and the world): when can we get back to normal?

To answer that question, scientists need to know a lot more about the epidemic and the virus itself.

– The battle of the models –

Assuming the current models are correct, a best-case scenario for the coming months in the UK might look something like South Korea. With mass testing, contact tracing and isolation, life might be able to return to some kind of normality, but with a return to more stringent measures on a hair trigger.

As Dr Ferguson told MPs yesterday, it became clear early on that the UK did not have the testing capacity to take that route at the beginning of the outbreak, but it could do so in a few weeks.

But the key thing to know is how widespread the virus actually is. A study from Oxford University this week caused a stir by finding that Covid-19 might have arrived in the UK a month earlier than thought and that 50 per cent of the population could have it already.

That would match up with our report today that the UK’s patient zero could actually be a British tourist who returned from a skiing holiday with the virus back in January.

If correct, it would mean that the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic, with hospitalisation rates possibly as low as one in one thousand, and that herd immunity may actually already be close. If so, the lockdown could be short-lived.

Government scientists have not ruled out the modelling being correct.

Equally, a symptom-tracking app developed by scientists at King’s College London suggests that the infection level could be one in 10 at the moment. That’s higher than the current modelling being used, but nowhere near as high as the Oxford study found.
 
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danvilla2 said:
Didn’t the South Korea crisis kick off because of a (Protestant?) church staying open, which spread the disease like wildfire?

I just hate all religions, being a humanist and all that.
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We all ought to have evolved beyond believing in a man like figure in the sky and taking seriously the several hundred year old 'ideas' of illiterate numbskulls who contributed to the holy books but sadly, we're not there.

Part of me says let them congregate and let Darwinism kick in but the problem is that these morons will spread it on to those who have nothing to do with their fantasies.
 
The Fear said:
This is VERY interesting and nicely optimistic.

I don't usually cut and paste, but this was from a friend who got The Telegraph newsletter. So as this is so important I am sure they won't be worrying about copyright right now.

There is cautious optimism in the Government and among its scientific advisers that with the current measures in place, the NHS should be able to cope with the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Britain.

– Stay at home. It’s working –

Dr Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, whose modelling has been central to Government decision making, told MPs yesterday that while there might be some individual spots of high pressure, at a national level the NHS would not exceed capacity.

He also said that the number of deaths may be below the “best case” 20,000 he outlined a few days ago, and that perhaps two-thirds of those deaths were likely to be of people who would have died this year of other causes.

This does not mean that the UK is out of the woods at all. While the peak in the number of cases is now expected in the next two to three weeks, one rather substantial question still hangs over the country (and the world): when can we get back to normal?

To answer that question, scientists need to know a lot more about the epidemic and the virus itself.

– The battle of the models –

Assuming the current models are correct, a best-case scenario for the coming months in the UK might look something like South Korea. With mass testing, contact tracing and isolation, life might be able to return to some kind of normality, but with a return to more stringent measures on a hair trigger.

As Dr Ferguson told MPs yesterday, it became clear early on that the UK did not have the testing capacity to take that route at the beginning of the outbreak, but it could do so in a few weeks.

But the key thing to know is how widespread the virus actually is. A study from Oxford University this week caused a stir by finding that Covid-19 might have arrived in the UK a month earlier than thought and that 50 per cent of the population could have it already.

That would match up with our report today that the UK’s patient zero could actually be a British tourist who returned from a skiing holiday with the virus back in January.

If correct, it would mean that the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic, with hospitalisation rates possibly as low as one in one thousand, and that herd immunity may actually already be close. If so, the lockdown could be short-lived.

Government scientists have not ruled out the modelling being correct.

Equally, a symptom-tracking app developed by scientists at King’s College London suggests that the infection level could be one in 10 at the moment. That’s higher than the current modelling being used, but nowhere near as high as the Oxford study found.
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The scientists can't agree what's going on, can they? First of all the herd immunity theory was the thing, then it wasn't, and now it might be. The projected number of deaths has varied between 20,000 and 250,000. And so on.
 
The Fear said:
This is VERY interesting and nicely optimistic.

I don't usually cut and paste, but this was from a friend who got The Telegraph newsletter. So as this is so important I am sure they won't be worrying about copyright right now.

There is cautious optimism in the Government and among its scientific advisers that with the current measures in place, the NHS should be able to cope with the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Britain.

– Stay at home. It’s working –

Dr Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, whose modelling has been central to Government decision making, told MPs yesterday that while there might be some individual spots of high pressure, at a national level the NHS would not exceed capacity.

He also said that the number of deaths may be below the “best case” 20,000 he outlined a few days ago, and that perhaps two-thirds of those deaths were likely to be of people who would have died this year of other causes.

This does not mean that the UK is out of the woods at all. While the peak in the number of cases is now expected in the next two to three weeks, one rather substantial question still hangs over the country (and the world): when can we get back to normal?

To answer that question, scientists need to know a lot more about the epidemic and the virus itself.

– The battle of the models –

Assuming the current models are correct, a best-case scenario for the coming months in the UK might look something like South Korea. With mass testing, contact tracing and isolation, life might be able to return to some kind of normality, but with a return to more stringent measures on a hair trigger.

As Dr Ferguson told MPs yesterday, it became clear early on that the UK did not have the testing capacity to take that route at the beginning of the outbreak, but it could do so in a few weeks.

But the key thing to know is how widespread the virus actually is. A study from Oxford University this week caused a stir by finding that Covid-19 might have arrived in the UK a month earlier than thought and that 50 per cent of the population could have it already.

That would match up with our report today that the UK’s patient zero could actually be a British tourist who returned from a skiing holiday with the virus back in January.

If correct, it would mean that the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic, with hospitalisation rates possibly as low as one in one thousand, and that herd immunity may actually already be close. If so, the lockdown could be short-lived.

Government scientists have not ruled out the modelling being correct.

Equally, a symptom-tracking app developed by scientists at King’s College London suggests that the infection level could be one in 10 at the moment. That’s higher than the current modelling being used, but nowhere near as high as the Oxford study found.
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The figures in the media annoy me, when you see figures like 10k cases, 400 deaths, 590 recoveries - because the death rate feels high and is scaring people. Reality is no one knows because there aren’t enough bloody tests, unless you’re wealthy and get prioritised.

Also, I’ve come to the conclusion there’s a good chance I will get it - I just want to get it when the NHS is not over stretched. Herd immunity is what they want and there’s enough said about it to back that up.

When they let us all out again, a second flare up will happen I guess.
 
tmg513 said:
The scientists can't agree what's going on, can they? First of all the herd immunity theory was the thing, then it wasn't, and now it might be. The projected number of deaths has varied between 20,000 and 250,000. And so on.
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Agreed, and as Pandemics happen 3 times a century (former Home Secretary Alan Johnson was talking about this on newsnight) you would think there would be some agreement.

However, that one is a nice optimistic take, they did seem to be a bit buoyant in the daily briefing yesterday saying it is going to be tight but the NHS should be able to cope.

I must admit, I just thought the herd immunity was common sense, then people seemed to retreat from it didn't they? I am talking totally as a layman when I said it made sense btw just to be clear!
 
Seven Russian warships showing high levels of activity in the English Channel and the North Sea.

Is Putin hoping to catch us off our guard?
 
The Fear said:
I must admit, I just thought the herd immunity was common sense, then people seemed to retreat from it didn't they? I am talking totally as a layman when I said it made sense btw just to be clear!
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If you hadn’t heard of herd immunity like me before, you go through the roller coaster from “how can the government want this and not protect us” to “although some will not survive it makes the most rational sense in the medium term”. There’s been a lot of nudging from the government advisors on it though, especially the guy who’s leading it stood by Boris.

It’s just not nice if it’s your nan that doesn’t make it, and the few younger people who lose their lives at an unfair age.

If a vaccination isn’t here shortly - which it won’t be - the chances are if you get out and about and travel abroad you will get it. It’s about picking the right time and place to get it, so you get the best treatment.
 
The Fear said:
Agreed, and as Pandemics happen 3 times a century (former Home Secretary Alan Johnson was talking about this on newsnight) you would think there would be some agreement.

However, that one is a nice optimistic take, they did seem to be a bit buoyant in the daily briefing yesterday saying it is going to be tight but the NHS should be able to cope.

I must admit, I just thought the herd immunity was common sense, then people seemed to retreat from it didn't they? I am talking totally as a layman when I said it made sense btw just to be clear!
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Your opinion is just as valid as anyone else's JF. Whether it's right or not is a different matter of course.:cool:
 
danvilla2 said:
If you hadn’t heard of herd immunity like me before, you go through the roller coaster from “how can the government want this and not protect us” to “although some will not survive it makes the most rational sense in the medium term”. There’s been a lot of nudging from the government advisors on it though, especially the guy who’s leading it stood by Boris.

It’s just not nice if it’s your nan that doesn’t make it, and the few younger people who lose their lives at an unfair age.

If a vaccination isn’t here shortly - which it won’t be - the chances are if you get out and about and travel abroad you will get it. It’s about picking the right time and place to get it, so you get the best treatment.
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Yup, it's not a nice concept, but it's the only sensible response ultimately and then you vaccinate the poor buggers who remain/follow.

Unless you're a twat Millennial that is.
 
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