From the Athletic...
Chris Hughton inspires confidence – Forest can still mount promotion push
By Paul Taylor Oct 14, 2020
Speak to those who know Chris Hughton and they talk of a man who inspires confidence; who has consistently brought belief to every dressing room he has worked in.
They are skills he will require more than ever at Nottingham Forest.
Before the appointment of Hughton, optimism had been in short supply at the City Ground, amid a run of three wins in 20 games. More recently, four consecutive Championship defeats were not only the catalyst for Sabri Lamouchi’s departure, they were also the inspiration for some to write off the season almost before it had begun.
But, while it is true that a quartet of losses and zero points are a long way from being the ideal foundation on which to build a promotion push — Michael Dawson labels it more honestly as a “disaster” — is a top-two finish already out of Forest’s reach, before they have played a single minute of football under their new manager?
Thankfully not just yet, no.
The target on September 12, when Forest kicked off the new campaign at Queens Park Rangers, was to secure a place in the top flight. It has not changed.
It is true that Burnley, on the last two occasions they have won promotion from the Championship — winning the title in 2015-16 and finishing second in 2013-14 — lost only five of their 46 matches in both seasons.
But if that is a stat that gives Forest cause for concern — they may take solace from the fact that Hull secured second place in the Championship after losing 15 games in 2012-13, including five of their first 10 outings. Over the last 10 seasons, the title winners in the second tier have lost, on average, 7.7 games. The average for the team finishing second is 9.3.
Forest have significant ground to make up on Bristol City and Reading, who have taken a perfect 12 points from 12. But, while there is no time to dawdle, there is still a small amount of room for manoeuvre.
Because what is also easy to lose sight of, as Forest’s promotion hopes painfully unravelled last season, was precisely how close they came to securing a top-six finish for the first time in almost a decade, since Billy Davies’ first spell at the helm.
Forest’s failure was as inexplicable as it was inexcusable — but their margin of error was goal difference alone. Who is to say how a team lacking in form and confidence would have got on in the play-offs? We will never know. But what is fair to say is that the squad that missed out by a whisker on a place in the end-of-season showdown has been strengthened.
Hughton inherits a group of players that is equipped to challenge, particularly if at least one more winger or attacking midfielder can be added — which is the aim, with the club working on numerous targets, including Harry Wilson and Anthony Knockaert.
Forest hope to add Knockaert on loan from Fulham before the window closes
From the outside looking in, the recruitment policy had a haphazard feel to it over the summer. A squad that needed minor tinkering has instead had a major overhaul. Some of the new additions felt as though they had Lamouchi’s influence on them. Others less so.
But that lack of strength in depth that was a sizeable factor in the slump last season, has been emphatically addressed, with a dozen new signings.
And one of the fundamental catalysts for the change in the dugout was the theme of underachievement being extended into this season, despite that strengthening.
“Not the perfect start? That is an understatement — it has been a disaster,” Dawson tells The Athletic. “It would be easy for me to sit here and talk about fine margins. But it is down to us as players to turn around those margins. That was true at the end of last season and it is true now.
“This is a fresh start. We have got to get started quickly under the new manager. It is a 42-game season now. What has happened has gone. We can only look forward.
“The squad does look stronger. We have lost Ben Watson who was in the side for almost every game and Cashy (Matty Cash, now with Aston Villa) will be a big loss, although we did get big money for him. But we have brought in some real experience; a lot of players who really know this league.
“I said to you when we spoke before the start of the season that it is just about getting started; about getting that first home win, about winning for the first time on the road. That remains the case. The sooner they come, the sooner we will gain confidence. The games come quickly now and that is an opportunity; a chance to get those points as quickly as possible.”
Hughton knows how to win promotion from the Championship.
In 2016-17 his Brighton & Hove Albion side lost nine games on their way to collecting 93 points, which was only enough for second place behind a rampant Newcastle — although two of those losses came after promotion had already been secured. His first promotion came with Newcastle in 2009-10, when his side lost only four times in the league all season.
But matching the 102 points of that remarkable Newcastle side — which included the likes of Nicky Butt, Andy Carroll, Kevin Nolan, Danny Simpson and Alan Smith — is not the goal.
Just like the men before him, Hughton was hired to deliver one thing — promotion.
That Newcastle side was packed full of Premier League experience. This Forest squad is now well stocked with players who know how to get there. Of the summer additions, Harry Arter, Cyrus Christie and Jack Colback have all won promotion from the second tier. Luke Freeman and Lyle Taylor have won promotion from League One.
Longer-serving players like Dawson (Hull), Tendayi Darikwa (Burnley), Sammy Ameobi (Newcastle) and Lewis Grabban (Aston Villa) have won promotion into the Premier League. All will know that it is something not decided over four games but over 46.
“I always talk about team chemistry. The most important thing you can have is a good bond throughout the entire squad. You need to have that chemistry,” says Freeman. “People may not have their best days, but you need to know that there is a team behind you that will look after you, when you have one of those days. That is so, so important.
“From what I have seen, it feels as though the team has that in abundance. We are well equipped to face the Championship. What I was seeing when I was looking from the outside in has proved to be true now I am here. They were so close to getting into the play-offs. They had a great season but fell short, when we all know they should have at least made the top six, given where we were.
“But now it is a new season and we need to use the quality that the team has.”
Christie has won promotion twice with Fulham, most recently last season, in a squad that also included Arter. “My focus is to come in and help this club win promotion; that is what I want to achieve. I think I have a wealth of experience now at 28, with two promotions and closing in on 400 games,” says Christie. “My job is to come in and help this club achieve those ambitions.”
The mood of doom and gloom at Forest was understandable, particularly against the backdrop of some chaotic decision making that began at the highest level. But, amid the chaos, Forest find themselves with the kind of manager they should have been seeking for many years; a man with a proven track record of success and an understanding of this division — and a core of players for whom you could say exactly the same.
Starting with the trip to Blackburn and followed by the visit of firstly Rotherham and then arch-rivals Derby County, Forest have three games in six days — and an opportunity to change the picture quickly.
If Hughton can bring that confidence, along with some stability, consistency and calm; if he is left to do what he does best, anything is still possible.
https://theathletic.com/2137429/2020/10/14/nottingham-forest-chris-hughton-michael-dawson-promotion/
