Brexit rolls on...

[in_the_top_one]

I don't think Trump really has the means to just take office.
Its likely he will declare victory and say that any challenge is illegal and then take it to the courts, but even with a republican supreme court it would be absolutely remarkable if they found in his favour.
It would permanently undermine the court, which the judges are in for life, and its unlikely he would be able to hold on to power without destabilizing the entire political system in the US, which enough politicians would disagree with to stop him.
He could go the military route but although he has support among low level soldiers he has pissed off the entire upper echelons by constantly insulting them and firing all the people they respect.
He has the police on his side but I don't think they will be able to do much.
Whatever happens it'll be a test of how resilient the US really is to dictators. In theory, their constitution is set up to prevent it.

You would hope so but the SC is already partisan.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opini...il-ballots-presidency-2020-column/6064978002/

Remarkable things happen all the time.

 

[in_the_top_one]

SC rulings are close even without the new justice.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...orth-carolina-amy-coney-barrett-b1408059.html

 

[Woanz]

I think a lot of people are thinking the Donald has far more support amongst the Republican Party hierarchy than he actually does, they hate him & whatever you think about their politics; their ideology won’t support a person not abiding by democratic processes.

Trump will try all kinds of dirty tricks I’m sure of that by he’s far more likely to be forced from office by his own side than anything the democrats do.

 

[mao tse tung]

Well looks like biden might win so its no chance of a free trade deal with US, which in turn pretty much kills no deal dead. If it happens then the sunny uplands will have a distinctly brino feel.

That is a brave prediction despite the polling numbers.

Most polling firms tend to give a margin of error at around plus or minus 3%; that did not work too well in 2016.

The New York Times appear to think that 4 states will decide who is President: Arizona who currently have Biden up 6%, Florida who have Biden up 3%, Pennsylvania who have Biden up 6% and Wisconsin who have Biden up by a staggering 11% - that is according to the their most recent Poll carried out in conjunction with Siena College.

I remain to be convinced that Florida will vote for Biden and the same goes for Arizona and I think Pennsylvania will be much closer than it is currently showing.

If the election is as close as I suspect, there is a real danger of it becoming mired in a huge legal dispute; the only saving grace is the growing number of elected Republicans who want rid of Trump.

If Trump does win, it will be a case of at what cost; The Republicans have a majority of 6 in the Senate but the Democrats have a majority of 35 in the House; it is doubtful that the Democrats will overturn the Republican majority in the senate at this election but it is not inconceivable that they could overturn it in the mid terms.

It is for that reason I just cant see the Republicans letting Trump tough it out if he gets beaten; it will mean possible annihilation for them in the mid terms which will result in zero legislation getting through Congress.

 

[mao tse tung]

SC rulings are close even without the new justice.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...orth-carolina-amy-coney-barrett-b1408059.html

The same has happened in Texas with Drive Through voting.

 

[InvincibleBrianMan]

I don't think Trump really has the means to just take office.
Its likely he will declare victory and say that any challenge is illegal and then take it to the courts, but even with a republican supreme court it would be absolutely remarkable if they found in his favour.
It would permanently undermine the court, which the judges are in for life, and its unlikely he would be able to hold on to power without destabilizing the entire political system in the US, which enough politicians would disagree with to stop him.
He could go the military route but although he has support among low level soldiers he has pissed off the entire upper echelons by constantly insulting them and firing all the people they respect.
He has the police on his side but I don't think they will be able to do much.
Whatever happens it'll be a test of how resilient the US really is to dictators. In theory, their constitution is set up to prevent it.

Or he could just win the election again (despite losing the popular vote by an increased margin) some poling (real clear politics.com) showing he could well do that due to numbers of his voters being too embarrassed to admit they are going to vote vote for him again. (They claim to ask the questions in a way that avoids the embarrassment as well as sampling the demographics differently - they correctly picked Trump the last time)
Add to that the bias of the right wing packed supreme Court who are just champing at the bit to stop the count - as they did in 2000 - and an assortment of tactics to avoid allowing democratic leaning non-white voters access to voting and clear manipulation of the postal system to try to stop postal ballots arriving on time etc etc

 

[mao tse tung]

Or he could just win the election again (despite losing the popular vote by an increased margin) some poling (real clear politics.com) showing he could well do that due to numbers of his voters being too embarrassed to admit they are going to vote vote for him again. (They claim to ask the questions in a way that avoids the embarrassment as well as sampling the demographics differently - they correctly picked Trump the last time)
Add to that the bias of the right wing packed supreme Court who are just champing at the bit to stop the count - as they did in 2000 - and an assortment of tactics to avoid allowing democratic leaning non-white voters access to voting and clear manipulation of the postal system to try to stop postal ballots arriving on time etc etc

That is a very good point about people being too embarrassed to admit voting for Trump but will do regardless.

I have a little bit more faith in the Supreme Court; they may well be partisan but will know that getting involved in an election will damage their integrity beyond repair.

That will give an open invite to the next Democratic President to make changes which will not be to their liking.

 

[weejockmcplop]

That is a very good point about people being too embarrassed to admit voting for Trump but will do regardless.

I have a little bit more faith in the Supreme Court; they may well be partisan but will know that getting involved in an election will damage their integrity beyond repair.

That will give an open invite to the next Democratic President to make changes which will not be to their liking.

Its not only that, some states are run by democrats and if they decide the SC no longer has any authority there's a huge problem.

 

[da fuq]

It will be surprising if he loses

He has his millions of Zealots and Christian fundamentalists who are going to vote for him again and millions who have stayed quite and are still pissed off that Obama became president and Biden is a reminder of that

I have been saying the postal voting will be dodgy just like it was over here

He has already primed the country for it and got the postal system rigged in his favour in the places he can, where electoral votes count for more and has tried to sabotage those who vote

It would take a monumental turn out in those places to over turn it

 

[da fuq]

We really are watching an Empire start to collapse

All it takes is a few years of right wing populism to do it

Our empire is long gone

But we are actually experiencing the end of The Union - Great Britain and all its history wiped away. Meaningless because of some Brexit addled " Patriots "

 

[radfordinlondon]

That is a brave prediction despite the polling numbers.

Most polling firms tend to give a margin of error at around plus or minus 3%; that did not work too well in 2016.

The New York Times appear to think that 4 states will decide who is President: Arizona who currently have Biden up 6%, Florida who have Biden up 3%, Pennsylvania who have Biden up 6% and Wisconsin who have Biden up by a staggering 11% - that is according to the their most recent Poll carried out in conjunction with Siena College.

I remain to be convinced that Florida will vote for Biden and the same goes for Arizona and I think Pennsylvania will be much closer than it is currently showing.

If the election is as close as I suspect, there is a real danger of it becoming mired in a huge legal dispute; the only saving grace is the growing number of elected Republicans who want rid of Trump.

If Trump does win, it will be a case of at what cost; The Republicans have a majority of 6 in the Senate but the Democrats have a majority of 35 in the House; it is doubtful that the Democrats will overturn the Republican majority in the senate at this election but it is not inconceivable that they could overturn it in the mid terms.

It is for that reason I just cant see the Republicans letting Trump tough it out if he gets beaten; it will mean possible annihilation for them in the mid terms which will result in zero legislation getting through Congress.

Yup, thought id stick my neck out. Mainly because a biden victory will have very big implications over here.

 

[da fuq]

"Final battleground polls and averages.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota are going to be won by Biden. He has average leads of 8% or more in all three, well beyond Trump's reach, the margin of error or any 2016-level polling misses. Those three states alone, added to the 2016 Clinton total, would put him on 268 Electoral College votes, just two votes away from victory. He will almost certainly secure those from Maine where he has a consistent lead in one of their two separate districts.

On average Biden is ahead by 6 in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Today's final Emerson/Morning Consult poll puts him 6 ahead in Florida. Arizona is a likely win too based on analysis of early voting by local media. Adding any one of those to his column would put him comfortably over 270.

Georgia and North Carolina are also good prospects, and something is happening in Texas. Biden just needs to win one of these seven states to secure his election as President, he is very likely to take at least three.

(Sources: Emerson, New York Times/Nate Cohn) "

 

[in_the_top_one]

"Final battleground polls and averages.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota are going to be won by Biden. He has average leads of 8% or more in all three, well beyond Trump's reach, the margin of error or any 2016-level polling misses. Those three states alone, added to the 2016 Clinton total, would put him on 268 Electoral College votes, just two votes away from victory. He will almost certainly secure those from Maine where he has a consistent lead in one of their two separate districts.

On average Biden is ahead by 6 in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Today's final Emerson/Morning Consult poll puts him 6 ahead in Florida. Arizona is a likely win too based on analysis of early voting by local media. Adding any one of those to his column would put him comfortably over 270.

Georgia and North Carolina are also good prospects, and something is happening in Texas. Biden just needs to win one of these seven states to secure his election as President, he is very likely to take at least three.

(Sources: Emerson, New York Times/Nate Cohn) "

You seem a bit more positive than a few days ago?

 

[da fuq]

You seem a bit more positive than a few days ago?

I've copied and pasted that

Polls and voting intention have been so wrong these last few years

Its looking good but there are so many that are remaining silent and the Reps are gerrymandering this election on a scale that is inconceivable

There is going to be a record turn out

The dems are falling into the same trap as last time thinking it is impossible


They are like Forest they make the possible impossible

 

[Pope John XXIII]

I've copied and pasted that

Polls and voting intention have been so wrong these last few years

Its looking good but there are so many that are remaining silent and the Reps are gerrymandering this election on a scale that is inconceivable

There is going to be a record turn out

The dems are falling into the same trap as last time thinking it is impossible


They are like Forest they make the possible impossible

We'll hopefully know at midnight tomorrow if the networks call Florida.

If that is called for Biden on the night it's all over. If it's not then he's relying on PA and I really wouldn't want to be doing that.

I see Trump remaining president. I have a niggling feeling that the polls are even worse than last time. They estimate that 40% of the population are already baked in to voting for trump no matter what.

You are going to see a red tsunami of voting tomorrow. The trump militias and poll watchers are going to be bored because it will all be republicans voting, but that will emphasise the echo chamber and their fantasy that Trump could only have lost through fraud.

Tomorrow and Wednesday is not going to be about how far Trump is willing to go; we know he will go to any lengths to not have to feel like he has lost, up to and including destroying democracy in the country. He would think nothing of a bloody civil war if he thought it would benefit him.

This is going to be about how radicalised republicans are and how far they are willing to go for Trump.

Will they go all the way, of does he get a knife between the shoulder blades?

 

[da fuq]

I've been watching a lot of American TV recently and you get this feeling the Democrats think they cannot lose

I've also watched people like Stephen Colbert, Seth Myers, Joe Rogan, Bill Maher and that little pussy who got undone by Andrew Neil ..Ben Shapiro who thought Andrew Neil was a lefty doing a hit job on him

And there is real potential for massive civil unrest

Add to that their are 25million guns in circulation in the US

It really could go badly wrong especially with all the militia and groups like The Proud Boys wanting to shoot the shit out of anyone

I know a few people state side and their is real fear of this getting out of hand very quickly

 

[InvincibleBrianMan]

That is a very good point about people being too embarrassed to admit voting for Trump but will do regardless.

I have a little bit more faith in the Supreme Court; they may well be partisan but will know that getting involved in an election will damage their integrity beyond repair.

That will give an open invite to the next Democratic President to make changes which will not be to their liking.

Yes, well we have to wait and see - Goresich and Cavanagh have already made it clear that they think any ballots arriving after election day should not be counted (even if the postmark shows it was posted before election day) that is a massive U-turn on previously accepted practice. There is now a 6:3 split in favour of the right on the court and 3 of those are Trump appointees ( selected purposefully to disrupt the process of the court)
They already made some minor and not so outlandish decisions in the weeks running up to the election ( and I firmly believe they were tactical, done explicitly to point at and say "we are not partisan, see" when they gut the US democratic norms and hand Trump his victory)
It all hangs on how much of an actual majority of the electorate Biden can get in my opinion- if he gets a 10 million + advantage in the popular vote, that will probably be enough to make the court keep their hands off for now and save the US (and world) from an immediate fall into Fascism. Anything less and I expect major shenanigans from the supreme Court and GOP (which are more or less the same thing nowadays)
We will have to see this week!

 

[Basha73]

We'll hopefully know at midnight tomorrow if the networks call Florida.

If that is called for Biden on the night it's all over. If it's not then he's relying on PA and I really wouldn't want to be doing that.

I see Trump remaining president. I have a niggling feeling that the polls are even worse than last time. They estimate that 40% of the population are already baked in to voting for trump no matter what.

You are going to see a red tsunami of voting tomorrow. The trump militias and poll watchers are going to be bored because it will all be republicans voting, but that will emphasise the echo chamber and their fantasy that Trump could only have lost through fraud.

Tomorrow and Wednesday is not going to be about how far Trump is willing to go; we know he will go to any lengths to not have to feel like he has lost, up to and including destroying democracy in the country. He would think nothing of a bloody civil war if he thought it would benefit him.

This is going to be about how radicalised republicans are and how far they are willing to go for Trump.

Will they go all the way, of does he get a knife between the shoulder blades?

I have very little interest in US politics but I have had that same niggling feeling for years.

Trump is going to win and then he is going to start talking even more seriously about a third term. He has already mentioned it before saying he should be allowed because he was treated so badly when he ran the first time but he will take winning a second term (even through dirty tricks) as tacit approval for him to push the matter.

The only thing that has really surprised me is that there has been no really serious attempt to assassinate him but then the only people he hasn’t pissed off are the sort of radicals most likely to make the attempt...

 

[Pope John XXIII]

I have very little interest in US politics but I have had that same niggling feeling for years.

Trump is going to win and then he is going to start talking even more seriously about a third term. He has already mentioned it before saying he should be allowed because he was treated so badly when he ran the first time but he will take winning a second term (even through dirty tricks) as tacit approval for him to push the matter.

The only thing that has really surprised me is that there has been no really serious attempt to assassinate him but then the only people he hasn’t pissed off are the sort of radicals most likely to make the attempt...

If Trump wins he'll look to see if republicans and the SCOTUS will give him a third term, before trying to turn America into a hereditary autocracy.

That is horrendous for the world but even worse for us, when our prime minister closely tracks Trump, openly admires him and looks to him for what he can get away with.

If Trump wins I think you'll immediately see him drop any pretence to be an elected president rather than an authoritarian leader. He'll also drop the pretence that he needs to follow the rules or constitution

Ohio, the bellwether state, is tracking more and more heavily for Trump. Our natural faith in human beings not being inherently evil shits is potentially going to take a big knock

 

[Basha73]

If Trump wins he'll look to see if republicans and the SCOTUS will give him a third term, before trying to turn America into a hereditary autocracy.

That is horrendous for the world but even worse for us, when our prime minister closely tracks Trump, openly admires him and looks to him for what he can get away with.

If Trump wins I think you'll immediately see him drop any pretence to be an elected president rather than an authoritarian leader. He'll also drop the pretence that he needs to follow the rules or constitution

Ohio, the bellwether state, is tracking more and more heavily for Trump. Our natural faith in human beings not being inherently evil shits is potentially going to take a big knock

And with the Supreme Court in his pocket it is more likely than ever.