Automatic Promotion - What do we need?

DeanoVilla

DeanoVilla

One Bloody Number
Just spotted the poll on the right hand side which seemed to suggest we need another 11 wins from our remaining 15 games to assure auto promotion, so it got me wondering, historically is that accurate?

Below are the amount of points that would have secured automatic promotion in seasons gone by -

2016/17 - 86
2015/16 - 89
2014/15 - 87
2013/14 - 86
2012/13 - 78
2011/12 - 87
2010/11 - 81
2009/10 - 80
2008/09 - 81
2007/08 - 76
2006/07 - 85
2005/06 - 82
2004/05 - 86
2003/04 - 80
2002/03 - 81
2001/02 - 84
2000/01 - 87

So the mean average over the last 17 seasons would be 83.3 (lets round up to 84 points).

The median average also happens to be 84 points.

To be on the safe side lets set a target of 87. Only once in the last 17 years has it been required to achieve more than 87 points to gain auto promotion.

So that means we need another 28 points.

9 wins and a draw.
8 wins and 4 draws.

I think we're more than capable of that. Premiership here we come!



:94:
 
Our new poll asks how many more games you think Villa will win, DeanoVilla has looked at what we'll need for automatic promotion.


<br><br><a href ="http://www.vitalfootball.co.uk/router.asp?7524320">Click here to read the article</a><br><br>
 
When you put it like that Deano it shows just what a complete collapse we would have to have to not at least make the play offs given our ten point cushion, and the goal difference is worth another point.
 
When it's put like that then it is really really on.

Remaining fixtures

Fulham (A)
Preston (H)
Sheff Weds (A)
QPR (H)
Sunderland (A)
Wolves(H)
Bolton (A)
Hull (A)
Reading (H)
Norwich (A)
Cardiff (H)
Leeds (H)
Ipswich (A)
Derby (H)
Millwall (A)
 
not sure on the figures above tbh
brighton were 2nd with 93 for instance last year
so 93+ needed
and the previous 4 seasons 2nd place had 89,89,93,79

didn't look at the rest but that's 89+ needed average
so 30 pts

reckon 9 wins minimum and no more than 3 defeats

lot to do still
 
BringBackMON, the figures are correct, and are based on 1 point more than 3rd place got.

Brighton may have got 93, but 3rd place only had 85 points meaning 86 points would have been enough.
 
BringbakMON - 14/2/2018 14:51

odd way of looking at it
Click to expand...

Why is it odd?

I've gone back and looked at how many points would have been enough to secure 2nd place each year. That's not odd, that's what we're trying to figure out.

If 2nd finished on 99 points and 3rd finished on 60 points would you say the following season we had to target 99 points to be promoted or 61?

Seems logical to me, but each to their own.
 
pretty clear to me tbh
Your reasoning just means you'd be one point closer to the 2nd placed team.
(the second place team just seems to vanish in your reasoning)

so to be promoted you'd need 99pts + (or better goal difference) in your example
 
Looks spot on to me, few have agreed on the twitter part saying 9 odd wins, some draws.

Can't see where it's wrong, unless another club go on a massive run of no losses, then we have to match that obviously
 
DeanoVilla - 14/2/2018 14:47

BringBackMON, the figures are correct, and are based on 1 point more than 3rd place got.

Brighton may have got 93, but 3rd place only had 85 points meaning 86 points would have been enough.
Click to expand...

But if Brighton had only got 86 then other teams, possibly the one on 85, would have got more ...

Whatever, don't think you can judge it on past seasons. At the moment we're leading the pack for the 2nd spot, but it is a pack. It's all a question of who can sustain the best run to the end of the season. You have to have us down as favourites because of the squad we have and the way we are playing. Keep that going and the other teams will find it difficult to keep up.

We still have to play the other teams in the top 6 apart from Bristol though. That's quite a test.
 
Just to add to the conundrum, the points gained would be higher if at the other end of the table, there was say one or two cut adrift so to speak surely.

This season, there is no club in the Championship currently cut adrift. The bottom eight clubs are covered by 10 points.

Which, tells me.......... errrrrr

:69:


 
Derby are falling away.
Cardiff are inconsistent
Bristol are flagging
Sheff Utd just aren't good enough
Leeds have already gone
Which leaves Fulham at the moment as the biggest danger

We have to play Derby, Cardiff and Leeds at home and only Fulham away.

Beat Fulham on Saturday and everything hinges on fortress Villa Park.

I also can see Deano's logic.

Win Saturday and this team could go unbeaten for the rest of the season.
 
Ok then....

Fulham (A) 1
Preston (H) 3
Sheff Weds (A) 1
QPR (H) 3
Sunderland (A) 3
Wolves(H) 0
Bolton (A) 1
Hull (A) 1
Reading (H) 3
Norwich (A) 1
Cardiff (H) 1
Leeds (H) 1
Ipswich (A) 3
Derby (H) 3
Millwall (A) 1

26 points - so that would give us 85 points, which might just do it.

 
I think any target is easier said than done. Just because we have won 7 in a row there is no guarantee we will continue picking up points.

Whatever the actual number of points required turns out to be, they key is consistency and avoiding slipping into a poor run like so many teams have at various points. We don’t need to win every game, but if we go 3 or 4 without winning that could be enough to end our season. All the games we have left to play are winnable (except maybe Wolves) so it’s in our hands and as long as we don’t fuck up we should get promoted.
 
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