Ask Paul | Vital Football

Ask Paul

mao tse tung

mao tse tung

Vital Champions League
From today's Athletic: a question and answer session with everyone's favourite local journalist:

Just read that Matty Cash is keen on a Premier League move. Is that idle speculation or do you think he wants to go now? If so, does that change the dynamics? Would Forest need to consider a lower bid? Don’t think Cash would do an Michail Antonio but you can’t blame him for wanting to play at the top level — Chris W

It is not idle speculation to say he would be keen on the chance to test himself in the Premier League; to make the step up to the next level. Of course he is.

You can understand why it would appeal to him. And it would change the dynamic if he was hammering on the manager’s door, demanding to go. But he just isn’t that type of character. He has good people around him. There would be no, “I’m not in the right frame of mind to play” antics from him. If a move didn’t happen; if nobody comes up with the right number for Forest, I’d expect him to roll his sleeves up and get on with it without fuss next season. He likes it at Forest.

But if Forest can get something close to £15 million for Cash it would be good business for everyone and he’ll get to play at the level he deserves to be at.

Are Forest looking to change their transfer strategy this window? Would maybe like to see a few more experienced players from the English leagues to go along with the flair of our foreign signings. Also, if Ben Watson is to leave do you think there will be a gap in the squad for a true captain, with Michael Dawson unlikely to play 25-plus games next season? — Dan B

The timing of this question, as it turns out, was almost perfect. Since you asked it, Forest have provided a strong suggestion they are indeed going down the path of signing proven, established Championship players.

Jack Colback ticks all of those boxes and a few more besides, doesn’t he?

Forest have made a statement by going out and signing him, because there will have been plenty of clubs interested in him.

But they will know exactly what they are getting from the 30-year-old midfielder, who has previously been a success at the City Ground during two previous loan spells that saw him make 55 appearances for the club. He is, potentially, an ideal replacement for Ben Watson — albeit with the caveat that the two are not exactly the same kind of player.

Colback does not have Watson’s passing range, but he is more mobile and able to get a foot in, while also still being composed in possession. He can sit in that same position in front of the back four, and play the same role in a slightly different fashion.

Forest’s manager might have changed since Colback last pulled on the red shirt, but you get the sense he will slot into Sabri Lamouchi’s ethos without any issues at all, because it is not a world away from that of Aitor Karanka — the man who signed him shortly after his appointment in January 2018.

Most of all, Colback will arrive with a full knowledge of the Championship, as well as knowing many of the players he will be joining up with again. He will not need much of a settling-in period or time to acclimatise. You could put him in the team tomorrow if there was a game.

Although he may have some work to do on his match fitness as the last first-team match he played was actually for Forest, in April 2019, with his exile at Newcastle United having been maintained throughout last season.

Colback’s family were hugely settled off the pitch in Nottingham and, while his roots are in the north, with Newcastle his hometown club, he will immediately feel at home back in the East Midlands.

Given the other players that Forest have an interest in — which include the likes of Lyle Taylor, Kieron Freeman, Luke Freeman and Rob Dickie — there is clearly a desire to bring players to the club who have a knowledge of English football and the demands of the Championship. There will be overseas targets as well — as you say, that has been a successful source of signings in the past for Forest. They will not abandon that market completely — but if they can add a few players in the same bracket as Colback, players with character, experience and mental strength, it will not do their cause any harm at all.
 
Continued:

Cash, Carvalho and Worrall leave, plus the dead wood in Clough, Hefele, Benalouane, Bong and Pantilimon. That’s around £40 million surely… we can get a quality striker, a winger, a centre-back and a holding midfielder for that. Thoughts? — Josh S

Oomph. If only things were that simple, Josh. I’d only personally be confident of getting significant fees for Cash and Worrall (more on Carvalho later) and I’d not expect the total to be anything close to £40 million. Maybe in the region of £30 million for the two of them. Hopefully with a few significant potential add-ons.

And that is making the presumption that Forest would be willing to sell both this summer. You would not rule that out completely — but I think it would take a big offer to persuade them to do business over both.

The motivation isn’t really to raise money to reinvest in the squad. The priority is to ensure that Forest continue to work within FFP guidelines. Selling Cash or Worrall would not be about giving Lamouchi a transfer kitty. It would be about making sure they are not at risk of any FFP sanctions.

Although, if Forest were to sell both, it would change the dynamic again, as there would be a bit more money available, in theory, to invest in players. Cash is the most saleable asset and Lamouchi has players that can try to replace him in Carl Jenkinson, Tendayi Darikwa and Jayden Richardson. Worrall would leave more of a void, particularly given that Dawson, at 36, is no longer capable of playing in every game.

Otherwise, Forest’s challenge is to strengthen in key areas while still maintaining a relatively careful financial outlook. They do need at least one new striker and potentially another central defender, if they do move on Hefele and/or Benalouane. Another winger wouldn’t be the worst idea, either.

If they can move a few fringe players off the wage bill without having to fork out for any kind of pay-off, they will be doing well.

Is there any indication on a change in tactical approach, or at the very least a Plan B, for next season? Does this influence any decision making on potential targets? Forest were very poor in creating chances/shots on goal — Nick R

This is one of the reasons why Lamouchi wanted to sign a No 10 in January, Nick. There was a recognition that there was room for more creativity and attacking threat in the side.

I’m told Forest will look to be more attack-minded next season; that this is something Lamouchi very much wants to add.

I would not expect them to abandon their starting point of being tough to break down, of being disciplined and organised when they are not in possession. But there is a desire to add to that with more attacking options.

What are your thoughts on the future for Carvalho? I’ve seen a few optimistic views that the money he could bring in if sold would be healthy, but I can’t see this being the case at all. He has gone from young talent to not getting a game in the Championship — Robin J

When Forest signed Carvalho from Benfica two years ago, the deal was for €15 million, with €3 million paid every year, over the duration of his five-year contract, rather than all of the fee being paid up front.

To be brutally frank, Robin, the best Forest can hope for is for another team to agree to take over the rest of those payments. It feels hugely unlikely they will make any kind of profit on him if they do attempt to move him on.

Your summary of his situation is very accurate. He is still a relatively young player, with bags of potential. But there comes a point when potential has to start to be fulfilled. He is 23 now, so that point is approaching fast.

His value will absolutely be less than it was when he first signed, so Forest’s choice is fundamentally whether to cut their losses or persevere and hope they can find a way to get the best out of him.

Which brings us to…

I’d personally build our side around Carvalho in a roaming No 10 role, he’s one of the most technically gifted players I’ve seen at Forest and it will be criminal if we don’t give him the opportunity to shine. For me, it’s a risk that needs to be taken or we’ll always wonder what if. Do you believe he wants to stay in Nottingham, Paul? — Jonathan E

Carvalho started nine Championship games last season, while making a further 14 substitute appearances. He played a total of 860 minutes of football, which is a fairly decent opportunity to make an impression.

During that time on the pitch, he contributed one assist and one goal.

I love watching him play. He is a joy to behold at his best. But was there one occasion during those appearances when he was properly at his best?

There was only one of those nine starts in which he completed the full 90 minutes — and that was in the 4-0 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday, when you could have made a strong case for subbing almost anyone at half-time.

He is unquestionably one of those players who has got exponentially better with every game he hasn’t played. You would think Lamouchi was guilty of leaving Lionel Messi out of the team at times. But Carvalho did not do enough during his time in the side to deserve to hold on to his place and, having lost it, the suggestion from inside the club is that he did not do enough to earn another opportunity.

Carvalho himself is believed to be very keen to stay in Nottingham. His family are settled here and they have a thriving business. He has the raw ability, he has the talent, now he has to show he has the attitude as well, if it is not already too late.
 
Given the FFP restraints, do you think deals where we’d have to pay a fee will be kept to a minimum and loans and free transfers will be the route we go down? — Joe F

It is hard to see Forest going out and spending €15 million on a single player in the coming weeks. But the club are still in a position to pay a modest fee, for the right players - last seasons targets like Dwight Gayle would be totally out of the question

But this will all be heavily influenced by the business they do when it comes to moving players out of the exit door — and that doesn’t refer only to them selling Matty Cash or one of their other young assets if big offers come in. The deals they do at the other end of the spectrum will also be important. Because trimming the wage bill, in general, would be a huge help.

Players like Zach Clough, Michael Hefele, Costel Pantilimon and, to a lesser extent, Yohan Benalouane will be seen as surplus to requirements, to varying degrees. They are not likely to attract anything more than nominal fees at best, but removing their wages would give Forest a lot more wiggle room, FFP-wise.

How much of an input does Lamouchi actually have on transfers? Or do they all go through Modesto and co? — James

Jose Anigo, Francois Modesto, Sabri Lamouchi and even the Greek hierarchy all come up with potential targets, which are then discussed as a group.

Lamouchi does generally have the final say; he has a big influence if he is particularly for or, indeed, particularly against a potential transfer. But it is generally a group effort. Recruitment has been one of the things discussed recently, because the club know it was not good enough in January in particular.

You did anticipate there might be changes because of that — including changes to personnel. But it seems the tweaks will only be to the process. Forest did actually have a pretty decent summer window last time around.

What’s the latest on the stadium redevelopment? It felt like now would be the perfect time to have started work. I know there were some complaints from various local stakeholders (the Rowing Club one of them, I believe?). Do we know if we are any closer to solving these issues? Is investing in the stadium still a priority, given the impact of COVID-19? — Gus W (and a few others asking similar questions)

The project very much remains something that the club;’s hierarchy want to get done. But there have been other problems to deal with in the short-term, not least the coronavirus crisis.

One of the main issues actually surrounded the design of the apartment buildings that form a major part of the project.

Forest have these superb designs for a world-class new stand, with Champions League-standard facilities. I believe there is a desire there for the surrounding buildings to be of a standard that will sit comfortably next to that. If and when the plans are resubmitted with a bit of tinkering on that front, the project will almost certainly get the green light.

The club must figure out when the best chance for them to get building work underway is going to be now. I would be surprised if that happened before this time next year.

How many curries is it acceptable to have a week while the ‘Eat out to help out’ scheme is running? — Andy H

I am really not the man to answer this responsibly, Andy. I weighed myself for the first time since lockdown the other day. It’s safe to say I’d be getting heavily fined and told to do some extra running when I reported back for pre-season. A lot of extra running.

But I’m still going out for food tonight… I’ll then take the dog for a long walk in the morning. It’ll be fine. Saag aloo counts as one of your five a day, right?
 
Nothing we weren’t really aware of but very interesting to read anyway and puts a number of things in perspective.

Reading between the lines, we already had two potential number 10s at the club in Clough and Carvalho. The fact that SL is on the lookout makes it sound pretty definite that neither has a future at Forest.

It was pretty obvious in Clough’s case although I did hope he would miraculously come good but Carvalho’s fall from grace is a real shame and not just because of the outlay. There were times when the 3 of Osborn, Carvalho and Lolley looked like a more than decent foil for Grabban so you have to wonder just what went wrong.
 
Sabri is at fault with carvalho, you can’t bitch at lack of creativity and play diakhaby over carvalho

im not saying his attitude doesn’t need adjusting, but he’s young...and stupid

I coach kids sports and barring a few the talented ones are the little gobshites/moody/think they know best

Sabri or the coaching staff or even the other players need to get on his case

we can all see he has talent And it’s criminal not to try
 
Southern red said:
Sabri is at fault with carvalho, you can’t bitch at lack of creativity and play diakhaby over carvalho

im not saying his attitude doesn’t need adjusting, but he’s young...and stupid

I coach kids sports and barring a few the talented ones are the little gobshites/moody/think they know best

Sabri or the coaching staff or even the other players need to get on his case

we can all see he has talent And it’s criminal not to try
Click to expand...

I thought he looked good in half the games he played to be honest, looked good under MON at the close last year too having got back in the side, so Kranks and MON rated him even as a younger player.
I know for some reason people rate Silva but I simply can't imagine carz playing in Silvas role all season and only being involved in 3 or 4 goals. Just no way. Let alone the semedos of the squad.
 
I could have written that article. The section on the stadium redevelopment being particularly bland. To be honest a waste of two minutes reading it.
 
The fact that PT gave us little that is knew, suggests what we know remains the facts. What was new for me was the thinking around Carvalho. In paying £3m a year over 5 years we have a non asset. Even if we sell him for £6M all we do is stay even as far as balance sheet goes. Seems little advantage in selling him unless Oly agree a bigger fee. In SL stating “he wasn’t knocking my door down”, which I took as a criticism of his attitude, I feel he is wanting JC to have a change of attitude both in training and in game. I wouldn’t say he isn’t trying but he is knocked off ball to easy and doesn’t put a foot in enough. It would be nice to have players around him that contribute to his game but frequently he finds only two players in front of him to pass to. That is the problem of SL style. If he wants us to be more attacking the whole team needs to move up 10 yards and his midfield partners, up 15 yards.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.