51 Points achieved, next target ... | Page 5 | Vital Football

51 Points achieved, next target ...

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At last we nudge a bit further up the points ladder to 62:

Worst place for 62 points is 17th.
Best place is 8th.
Average place is 12th.

And we are now also getting close to absolute mathematical safety. 65 points would see at least 5 teams below us for certain.
 
At last we nudge a bit further up the points ladder to 62:

Worst place for 62 points is 17th.
Best place is 8th.
Average place is 12th.

And we are now also getting close to absolute mathematical safety. 65 points would see at least 5 teams below us for certain.

4 more points makes a decent difference at last!

Mathematical safety well and truly secured for starters. Guaranteed to have at least six teams below us.

And lowest ever finish with 66 points is 14th.
Average finishing place is 10th and best finishing place is 6th.
 
4 more points makes a decent difference at last!

Mathematical safety well and truly secured for starters. Guaranteed to have at least six teams below us.

And lowest ever finish with 66 points is 14th.
Average finishing place is 10th and best finishing place is 6th.

And three more points today.
So now guaranteed at least 15th place (with the Title still possible 😀).

And historically, 69 points has seen a lowest ever finish of 12th and a highest ever finish of 5th, and average finish of 8th.
So we can now be confident of a top half finish, and creeping closer to a top six finish !
 
And three more points today.
So now guaranteed at least 15th place (with the Title still possible 😀).

And historically, 69 points has seen a lowest ever finish of 12th and a highest ever finish of 5th, and average finish of 8th.
So we can now be confident of a top half finish, and creeping closer to a top six finish !

72 points now reached:
Guaranteed at least 11th place (and yes Title still possible).
And historically 72 points has seen a lowest ever finish of 10th place and a highest ever finish of 3rd place, with an average finish of 7th place...

On we go!!
 
Getting very close to guaranteed play-offs.

As an aside, there were claims (and I don't think they were mathematically accurate) that if Hull had won, and us, Blackpool and Charlton all lost, they would have been promoted tonight. As it is, Sunderland beat them and we won, so both ourselves and Sunderland can still finish above them. Blackpool would have to overcome a significant goal difference to overhaul Hull, but since Peterborough joined in the fun by losing too, it t is still a six horse race for the automatic slots (Charlton can still catch Peterborough), albeit that the two favourites are clear in front with between three and five hurdles left to jump.
 
Getting very close to guaranteed play-offs.

As an aside, there were claims (and I don't think they were mathematically accurate) that if Hull had won, and us, Blackpool and Charlton all lost, they would have been promoted tonight. As it is, Sunderland beat them and we won, so both ourselves and Sunderland can still finish above them. Blackpool would have to overcome a significant goal difference to overhaul Hull, but since Peterborough joined in the fun by losing too, it t is still a six horse race for the automatic slots (Charlton can still catch Peterborough), albeit that the two favourites are clear in front with between three and five hurdles left to jump.
Ah, but they both have to play the mighty Imps 🤔
 
It was a draw, 2-2.

True. My mistake.

It is a big ask to win our last 5 games, including against the top two and Charlton (the form side at the moment), but both Peterborough and Hull both also have to play Charlton.

We probably haven't beaten the top teams quite often enough this season. If we do it now, we can be right in the mix until the last couple of games of the season.

Looking over our shoulder, despite their recent form, Portsmouth look to have an easy last four games (Bristol, Wimbledon and Accrington twice) and 12 points isn't beyond them. That means we may need 2 wins from our last 5 games to be certain of a play-off place.
 
True. My mistake.

It is a big ask to win our last 5 games, including against the top two and Charlton (the form side at the moment), but both Peterborough and Hull both also have to play Charlton.

We probably haven't beaten the top teams quite often enough this season. If we do it now, we can be right in the mix until the last couple of games of the season.

Looking over our shoulder, despite their recent form, Portsmouth look to have an easy last four games (Bristol, Wimbledon and Accrington twice) and 12 points isn't beyond them. That means we may need 2 wins from our last 5 games to be certain of a play-off place.

If we're scratching around for points to confirm the POs I suspect the second to last game v Charlton will be huge. Their run in is tough too. It could define who's in control going into the last match. I hope it doesn't come to that fingers crossed.
 
Oxford also have 3 winnable games left so they are not out of it.
There will be a bit of swings and roundabouts yet I feel.
But, a month or so ago I predicted 74 points for the play offs. I am going to stick to that.
The good news is we are now bang in form. I don't think we have anything to fear from Hull, and Shrews are definitely beatable. 2 or 3 points from those games and we are in the play offs I do firmly believe.
 
Oxford also have 3 winnable games left so they are not out of it.
There will be a bit of swings and roundabouts yet I feel.
But, a month or so ago I predicted 74 points for the play offs. I am going to stick to that.
The good news is we are now bang in form. I don't think we have anything to fear from Hull, and Shrews are definitely beatable. 2 or 3 points from those games and we are in the play offs I do firmly believe.
The good news is even better than that. 'Bang in form' with a squad depleted by injury. The performances of some of the younger players in the last few games has shown increasing maturity to the extent that absent senior players weren't missed last night, both in the dynamic first half and in the way the match was seen out.

With those senior players likely to be available by the play-offs, MA will have a good range of selection headaches. The highly effective formation shift with Johnson's central advanced role, for instance, if continued means one of Bridcutt, McGrandles and Grant wouldn't start. Factor in Edun, Jones and Sanders and that's a lots of options for midfield to start and finish games.

The maximum points teams currently outside the top 6 can get is Portsmouth, with 77, then Oxford with 74, so your target might be right or even high. But the swings and roundabouts will no doubt continue!
 
To crystallize things further, if we win on Saturday and Portsmouth lose we are guaranteed in the playoffs. Even if we win and Portsmouth draw , for them to overtake us would require an extremely unlikely scenario of us losing all remaining games and them winning all theirs with at least a 10 goal difference swing.
 
To crystallize things further, if we win on Saturday and Portsmouth lose we are guaranteed in the playoffs. Even if we win and Portsmouth draw , for them to overtake us would require an extremely unlikely scenario of us losing all remaining games and them winning all theirs with at least a 10 goal difference swing.

I prefer the following scenario;

We win our remaining five games, Peterborough fail to win any one of their remaining 3 fixtures (having lost to us) and we are guaranteed promotion. Simples - bring it on, 5 cup finals, no play offs, the Imps are going up.
 
I prefer the following scenario;

We win our remaining five games, Peterborough fail to win any one of their remaining 3 fixtures (having lost to us) and we are guaranteed promotion. Simples - bring it on, 5 cup finals, no play offs, the Imps are going up.


🎶
The Imps are going up 👏
The Imps are going up 👏
And now you're gonna believe us
And now you're gonna believe us
And now you're gonna belie-ee-eve us
The Imps are going up👏
🎶
 
72 points now reached:
Guaranteed at least 11th place (and yes Title still possible).
And historically 72 points has seen a lowest ever finish of 10th place and a highest ever finish of 3rd place, with an average finish of 7th place...

On we go!!

No more points.
Title now beyond us, but lowest mathematical finish improves to 9th place.

Donny dropping another point gives us 8th place at least, Oxford dropping 3 points gives us 7th place at least (or us gaining 3 points). Portsmouth are the final current target to guarantee our top six place.
We need 6 points to finish above Pompey or them to drop them, or any such combination.