#COVID19

[in_the_top_one]

You can go and get a plate of fried egg and chips in a Spanish pub,
French children are getting educated (admittedly in French), Germans can get their mullets permed and the Swedes can sauna all day.

We, on the other hand are waiting and believe the modelling that has thus far been so far off, I'm beginning to wonder why they are being believed.

I'm just relieved Fergusson et al, aren't charged with modelling comet trajectory.

You continue to scoff smugly at one modelling estimate that warned of 500,000 deaths if no action were taken.
We have had varying degrees of restrictions for nearly a year now and are already at 120,000-ish deaths, and counting. How many do you think we would we have had if we had continued business as usual (which would, of course, not have been possible)?

 

[Calvin Plummer]

You continue to scoff smugly at one modelling estimate that warned of 500,000 deaths if no action were taken.
We have had varying degrees of restrictions for nearly a year now and are already at 120,000-ish deaths, and counting. How many do you think we would we have had if we had continued business as usual (which would, of course, not have been possible)?

Yes quite, for Stret these are just numbers.

 

[in_the_top_one]

It may have been reversing, but it reversed in the summer where we got deaths down to zero, we came out of lockdown and it grew again. It would have been a vicious circle had it not been for the vaccines, particularly given we’ve just gone through winter, which means we’d have been using the same timelines as right now from an exit perspective, un

It must be coming up to about 11 months since I posted the prediction that we would have pulsing cycles of easier and more restrictive measures.
What we are talking about here is the relative durations of those measures. If you take more drastic action earlier, that pulse of lockdown will be shorter and less damaging, with longer periods of respitelike last summer.

 

[Calvin Plummer]

I haven’t advocated ignoring it in any of my posts?

You've shown frustration with lockdowns, understandably so, and I was just trying to give some context.

 

[weejockmcplop]

Today's trotting bullshit...

"Facemasks in schools will be a temporary measure to Easter"
"Vaccine passports will just be used to help open up the economy faster"

From the people who said:

"Three weeks to flatten the curve"
"People will be pleased to know I shook hands with Covid patients in hospital"

We are fooked aren't we?

They can't do vaccine passports. At least I hope they can't.
1: Who's going to pay for them?
2: Does anyone here trust these bunch of jokers not to use it as a gateway to mandatory ID cards?
We have to start thinking about what life is actually going to be like post restrictions and try not to eagerly sprint into an authoritarian nightmare.

 

[Strett]

You continue to scoff smugly at one modelling estimate that warned of 500,000 deaths if no action were taken.
We have had varying degrees of restrictions for nearly a year now and are already at 120,000-ish deaths, and counting. How many do you think we would we have had if we had continued business as usual (which would, of course, not have been possible)?

No.

I'm scoffing at the latest one which is saying another 50,000 which is quite clearly bollocks.

Early data from Public Health England’s (PHE) Siren study of healthcare workers suggests the Pfizer jab is reducing the risk of infection by 70% after one dose and 85% after the second dose.

Similarly, real world data from Israel released on Wednesday shows the Pfizer jab is now preventing 92% of infections after the second dose.

Figures released Thursday from Imperial College also show that 87.9% of people over the age of 80 tested positive for antibodies after two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, rising to 95.5% for those under the age of 60 and 100% in those aged under 30.

The latest data for the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab is also encouraging. A single dose was 76% effective in fending off infection between 22 and 90 days post-injection, rising to 82.4% after a second dose, new trial data shows.

This shows modellers have underestimated the protective effect of vaccines considerably.

Not one their predictions has been remotely accurate and yet Boris still places his faith in SAGE. That shows an irresponsible lack of judgment and a total inability to analyse even basic situations.

Modelling is a powerful tool but your model needs to be verified against actual results and adapted. That clearly isn’t happening. Instead, the modellers are so arrogant that they are convinced their model is correct and ignore the real world.

 

[Strett]

They can't do vaccine passports. At least I hope they can't.
1: Who's going to pay for them?
2: Does anyone here trust these bunch of jokers not to use it as a gateway to mandatory ID cards?
We have to start thinking about what life is actually going to be like post restrictions and try not to eagerly sprint into an authoritarian nightmare.

As annoyed with myself for thinking this I can see the benefits.
Vaccine passport is the wrong title, 'immunity card' or the like, which also encompasses natural immunity may be a goer.

I am 100% against it from the top down though, but if private companies want to insist on these, then that is up to them. If EasyJet won't let me fly without one, that is their bag. If you can't go into some Golf clubs without a jacket and tie, then this seems quite trite.

Pubs? This is tricky, I can see why as a landlord you'd want this, but it may be a business ending decision as many (the younger ones, esp.) may go somewhere else.

What troubles me though is this may see a creep into flu. We have witnessed flu deaths decrease to an historic low level through the measures undertaken, so I am fully expecting this evidence to be used in future to justify public health measures to control it. Why not? An avoidable death is just that.

We need to tread carefully and keep the policy makers in check.

 

[Will.NFFC]

You've shown frustration with lockdowns, understandably so, and I was just trying to give some context.

I understand that you can’t overwhelm the NHS so I don’t dispute the need to lockdown.

my frustration was more aimed at people who seemingly dismiss the economic impact and what it’s doing to a generation that are trying to make their way. Again, not this forum, but at government level and as a result, it stemming down to the average joe on the street who isn’t seeing anything other than “save lives”.

I saw a girl who couldn’t have been younger than 16 tweet the other day, “people shouldn’t go out regardless of lockdown being lifted, people are still vulnerable, let’s write this year off” and it got thousands of likes.
Frightening that somebody whose on the verge of being part of economic contribution is blissfully unaware of how self imploding that would be. I don’t necessarily blame her, but I blame multi millionaire journalists like Piers Morgan for making her think that it’s a rational ‘caring’ way of thinking whilst he remains untouched in his multi million pound villa in Spain, spewing his holier than thou speech on GMB.

There’s balance to the equation and the government as you say, started so far one way, that to counter it with the public, they’ve gone so far the opposite way with the exit plan, when sensible decisions would have meant less cost for the people.

I’m genuinely very very nervous about what this year entails and I’m convinced that April/May opening post vaccination will do more damage than good. We shall see.

 

[weejockmcplop]

As annoyed with myself for thinking this I can see the benefits.
Vaccine passport is the wrong title, 'immunity card' or the like, which also encompasses natural immunity may be a goer.

I am 100% against it from the top down though, but if private companies want to insist on these, then that is up to them. If EasyJet won't let me fly without one, that is their bag. If you can't go into some Golf clubs without a jacket and tie, then this seems quite trite.

Pubs? This is tricky, I can see why as a landlord you'd want this, but it may be a business ending decision as many (the younger ones, esp.) may go somewhere else.

What troubles me though is this may see a creep into flu. We have witnessed flu deaths decrease to an historic low level through the measures undertaken, so I am fully expecting this evidence to be used in future to justify public health measures to control it. Why not? An avoidable death is just that.

We need to tread carefully and keep the policy makers in check.

I agree that private companies should be allowed to demand evidence of vaccination. That's their choice and in some cases the socially responsible thing to do.
However, personally I think that anonymity should never, ever be illegal no matter the justification. I think luckily there is a large section of tory backbenchers that would agree with this.

 

[Strett]

I agree that private companies should be allowed to demand evidence of vaccination. That's their choice and in some cases the socially responsible thing to do.
However, personally I think that anonymity should never, ever be illegal no matter the justification. I think luckily there is a large section of tory backbenchers that would agree with this.

100% agree. It can't, IMO be from top down. By all means let the government assist with support and subsidise it if that's what they feel is appropriate; but not mandate it.

 

[Calvin Plummer]

I understand that you can’t overwhelm the NHS so I don’t dispute the need to lockdown.

my frustration was more aimed at people who seemingly dismiss the economic impact and what it’s doing to a generation that are trying to make their way. Again, not this forum, but at government level and as a result, it stemming down to the average joe on the street who isn’t seeing anything other than “save lives”.

I saw a girl who couldn’t have been younger than 16 tweet the other day, “people shouldn’t go out regardless of lockdown being lifted, people are still vulnerable, let’s write this year off” and it got thousands of likes.
Frightening that somebody whose on the verge of being part of economic contribution is blissfully unaware of how self imploding that would be. I don’t necessarily blame her, but I blame multi millionaire journalists like Piers Morgan for making her think that it’s a rational ‘caring’ way of thinking whilst he remains untouched in his multi million pound villa in Spain, spewing his holier than thou speech on GMB.

There’s balance to the equation and the government as you say, started so far one way, that to counter it with the public, they’ve gone so far the opposite way with the exit plan, when sensible decisions would have meant less cost for the people.

I’m genuinely very very nervous about what this year entails and I’m convinced that April/May opening post vaccination will do more damage than good. We shall see.

I've posted about the economic damage for a long time, as usual the poor and young will be disproportionately disadvantaged. It's probable that deaths due to economic damage will surpass that of the actual pandemic.

Part why I've been so frustrated that we haven't locked down quickly and hard which would have allowed us to leave far more quickly and minimise the economic fallout.

 

[Will.NFFC]

I've posted about the economic damage for a long time, as usual the poor and young will be disproportionately disadvantaged. It's probable that deaths due to economic damage will surpass that of the actual pandemic.

Part why I've been so frustrated that we haven't locked down quickly and hard which would have allowed us to leave far more quickly and minimise the economic fallout.

Do you think without vaccine timelines changing we’d have been out of lockdown any sooner though?

 

[jbacsta]

No, that isn't the point I'm making at all.
I'm making the points that you shouldn't smugly besmirch Wales when by the statistic you favour above all others they are actually doing marginally better.

I do believe that vaccines are the best tool, by far, that we have of getting out of this mess and have been complimentary about how well the UK is doing: from scientists, to NHS, to government.
Having said that, the frightening infographic I posted shows that vast numbers of people across the world do not even have their jab on order. It is quite possible that mutations will occur in those populations during 2021, that will put our own vaccinated population back at risk.

Closed borders back ?

 

[in_the_top_one]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-56194461
I hope this does indeed go ahead.
I might have though about going myself but Mr Tumble gives me the willies.

 

[in_the_top_one]

Do you think without vaccine timelines changing we’d have been out of lockdown any sooner though?

Yes, each time.
As in, each lockdown would have been shorter and less damaging for all.

 

[jbacsta]

Treasury figures show furlough scheme has now cost £53.8 billion which for comparison is greater than the annual budget of the Ministry of Defence.

No more aircraft carriers and its just about sorted then?

 

[in_the_top_one]

Closed borders back ?

Limiting travel reduces transmission. If anywhere is under the cosh, then it makes sense not to fly lots of them in and let them roam freely without quarantine.
Same goes for us.

 

[Calvin Plummer]

Do you think without vaccine timelines changing we’d have been out of lockdown any sooner though?

I think if we had locked down regionally and hard when we found the Kent variant and paired that with continued social distancing and an effective track and trace programme we would have saved thousands of lives and weeks in lockdown nationally.

Same story for when we first detected the virus for lockdown 1.

 

[Strett]

No more aircraft carriers and its just about sorted then?

HMS Queen Elizabeth is bound for the Asia-Pacific region along with a US destroyer and a load of F35s and it'll be a big test.

 

[Strett]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-56194461
I hope this does indeed go ahead.
I might have though about going myself but Mr Tumble gives me the willies.

Ooh, is the Hay festival taking place, it's an early one?