"I'm afraid it isn't as simple as some seem to think." | Page 3 | Vital Football

"I'm afraid it isn't as simple as some seem to think."

The problem with these analyses of infection and death rates compared with other illnesses is its all based on incomplete statistical data because things are moving so rapidly and testing has inaccuracies - 70-80% false negatives.

Basically, its a guess.

Correct, but we do have some information. Like 1000 deaths per day. That seems very high for a disease supposedly no worse than seasonal 'flu.
 
Correct, but we do have some information. Like 1000 deaths per day. That seems very high for a disease supposedly no worse than seasonal 'flu.
Agreed. But there is every likelihood that given both the age and underlying health problems of many of the people who have sadly died from this, that quite a number of these may well have died had they got a severe bout of 'seasonal flu'. It's an emotive topic that will always divide opinion.

I will throw in that I have a family member who is an NHS worker and assigned to the Covid ward in their hospital. They spend most of their day doing nothing as (thankfully) the Covid ward is less than a third full, but nor is there a long list of other patients they could work with as they have emptied large parts of the rest of the hospital.
 
Agreed. But there is every likelihood that given both the age and underlying health problems of many of the people who have sadly died from this, that quite a number of these may well have died had they got a severe bout of 'seasonal flu'. It's an emotive topic that will always divide opinion.

For sure, but excess deaths = worse, right?

That's all I'm trying to establish, really. How much worse SARS- CoV-2 is than a typical seasonal 'flu outbreak will depend on a lot of analysis done over the next few years. Equally, lots of analysis will look at responses and decide on their necessity/efficacy.
 
The NHS can't remain on hold much longer, the precautionary principle has led to huge numbers of unused beds and people are now dying of serious illnesses because they were too scared to go out and seek treatment. All elective surgery was cancelled and that also cannot carry on much longer.

That is very true. Because of elective surgery cancellations , treatment halting and people not seeking diagnosis will apparently lead to more deaths than vivid 19 approx . This is especially so in cancer where always 168.000 did every year. People should defo go if they need advice . Take it from one who knows . Might save your life
 
I am a bit surprised by the number of people on here willing to go to matches if they started before we have this evil virus totally under control.
I don't know if they have seen the 'Deer Hunter ' if they have they will know how dangerous Russian Roulette is.
 
I am a bit surprised by the number of people on here willing to go to matches if they started before we have this evil virus totally under control.
I don't know if they have seen the 'Deer Hunter ' if they have they will know how dangerous Russian Roulette is.

It's a choice, though, and you have to assess your own level of risk. I'm not willing to live long stretches of my life by government dictat and I live in Spain where the lockdown has been longer and more severe than the UK.

In the meantime, here's the risk of dying by age group based on the ONS figures up to week 15. The yellow block is 65-69. Anything above the yellow block is older.

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I doubt there's much, if any, risk of walking the moors, jogging, or sitting on a park bench, or any other similar activities the police seem so keen to punish

There is some risk of being in a stadium. But for most people the risk is low and really no greater than any other infection. I appreciate that most posters here are of an age which puts them in a higher risk category :)

But at some point soon, football fans are going to have to decide if they want to take that risk, because if not then professional football is finished in Lincoln, in England and the whole of Europe.


We have had football shut down during two World Wars and come back after several years and indeed thrive - record crowds in the period after WW2.

To survive, clubs will essentially need to cut costs as far as possible to zero and try to go into a hibernation-type mode until things can restart.

As for when we can restart, I also can't see it being before Autumn and even that has to be unlikely. I certainly have no wish to endanger my life by sitting in a packed SB until the virus has been got rid of comprehensively and we've all been properly vaccinated. So for me, some time in 2021 is when we will be getting going again.
 
I am a bit surprised by the number of people on here willing to go to matches if they started before we have this evil virus totally under control.
I don't know if they have seen the 'Deer Hunter ' if they have they will know how dangerous Russian Roulette is.

And how would you determine "totally under control" . If you are waiting for a vaccine that could be at least a year away,and maybe never. It is something we will have to live with IMO,and make a risk judgement whether we attend football games.
 
I think he's wrong. And the reason for that is I don't recall seasonal 'flu causing 1000 deaths per day at any time other than in 1918. I think it will end up being significantly more lethal than seasonal 'flu.

And indeed already is.
Financial Times calculated that to end of last week, deaths due to this pandemic were already over 41,000 in the UK.
(Way above the Govt's daily figures which ignore a lot of deaths outside of hospitals).

Given we are apparently now only starting to be at the peak level, then that figure could very well double by the end of this...the downward curve will be much longer and drawn out but can be expected to total a similar number to the upward curve (yes, Barney?).
 
We have had football shut down during two World Wars and come back after several years and indeed thrive - record crowds in the period after WW2.

To survive, clubs will essentially need to cut costs as far as possible to zero and try to go into a hibernation-type mode until things can restart.

As for when we can restart, I also can't see it being before Autumn and even that has to be unlikely. I certainly have no wish to endanger my life by sitting in a packed SB until the virus has been got rid of comprehensively and we've all been properly vaccinated. So for me, some time in 2021 is when we will be getting going again.

I cant see how that would work. The Govt furlogh scheme will not last for that long as it is ruinously expensive.To get rid of our contractual liabilties we most likely would have to liquidate. And there would not be much point in setting up a new club eg. AFC Lincoln 2022 unless the social distancing rules were repealed.
 
We have had football shut down during two World Wars and come back after several years and indeed thrive - record crowds in the period after WW2.

I don't think the parallel is the same, as although the Football League and FA Cup may have shut down during the World Wars football itself continued with various wartime competitions which kept the clubs ticking over until the post-war boom.
 
Very much so.

It would be fascinating to know if .... just for arguments sake (and yes, I know it won't happen).... football was able to resume with spectators on 1st June, what percentage of people would choose to either go or not go to a game.

I would 100% definitely not go.
 
There are differing opinions about it. For example Prof John Ioannidis of Stanford University has said the lethality of Covid19 is "in the range of seasonal flu and that for people under 65 years of age, the mortality risk even in the global hotspots is comparable to the daily car ride to work, while for healthy people under 65 years of age, the mortality risk is "completely negligible"

But we shall see when the current panic is over, and deaths in the UK peaked over two weeks ago.

And the longer the time before football does re-start, the more likelihood that it won't


I really would not believe anything coming out of America. That country is full if nutjobs spouting nonsense, starting from the head of state (god help them) himself.
 
I don't think the parallel is the same, as although the Football League and FA Cup may have shut down during the World Wars football itself continued with various wartime competitions which kept the clubs ticking over until the post-war boom.

I knew someone would say that. 🙄

But you get my general point that things can restart after a period...it just needs the club(s) to still exist (and agreed, the longer the shutdown, the harder that is).
 
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I really would not believe anything coming out of America. That country is full if nutjobs spouting nonsense, starting from the head of state (god help them) himself.

The man is Professor of Medicine, Health Research and Policy and Biomedical Data Science, and a Professor of Statistics at one of the world's top five universities.
 
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The man is Professor of Medicine, Health Research and Policy and Biomedical Data Science, and a Professor of Statistics at one of the world's top five universities.

Yes, but I still suspect he's wrong about coronavirus . And none of that stops him from being a right-wing nutter with an agenda. ;)
 
It would be interesting to see how many British people think that;
Professional footballers, officials and medical staff should be subjected to unnecessary risk.
Believe that the economy should be open again without consideration to the lives that would be lost and how they may contribute to the infection spread including attendance at football matches.
Live in Spain.
Support Brexit.

I am sure we couldn't find anyone!
 
Hence the winkie. I've no idea. But we can all pick scientists that back our position. When somebody explains how 1000 deaths per day is normal business, I might start taking notice.

We'll know at the end of the year. This is different because it's very severe on the elderly, but for anyone under 50 with no other complaint it's a barely visible blip on the chart. All the excess deaths are in the age groups over 70.

And he's not the only scientist who holds that opinion there are many others (including the one advising the Swedish government) but the point about experts is well taken