Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
Some such as Rees Mogg like both ways, ie move a big chunk of his business inside the EU so all bases are covered. Don't do what I do; do what I say.
EU strategy to destroy the Chequers ‘agreement’...
- Thread starter Trashbat
- Start date
Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
So, someone with a degree in economics, who has worked extensively abroad both inside and outside the EU is somehow a pseudo socialist. Would you dismiss a doctor or trained mechanic so readily?
Even if Brexit works, and it's a big IF, there will be a divorce settlement and the better that is for us then there will be less disruption.
Because you'll find we export far more than we eat and what we import from Ireland is offset by what we sell to that country, which is, of course, tariff-free. By the way, we sell more to the Republic than we do to China; so, it sounds like good business.
Socialism in one country eh? Stalin advocated that.
I wonder how we will get on when we are on our own up against massive trading blocks and multunationals. Trump, Putin, the rise of China and you reckon we'll be fine.
A bit like chucking the present Gills squad into the Premier league. For all my fanatical love of the Gills I have to admit they might struggle a little. Perhaps Cardiff reserves can be fended off but not the big boys. I admire your blind faith and optimism and would be ecstatic to be proven wrong.
Have a think why right wing nutters like Redwood and Mogg want no deal and "freedom".
Anyway, nice to hear that you are the only "proper socialist" on here. Congratulations.
Alderman Barnes
Vital Squad Member
A lot of the international flow of goods is bizarre, but it's a very specious argument to be making because Brexit's not going to stop it in any way whatsoever. If anything, it'll make it worse, because the apples and the people packing them will be sent half way around the world and washed in chlorine on the way.
Someone around here who thinks he's the only true socialist is going to get one hell of a shock when Doctor Fox's "Global Britain" weighs anchor and sets sail.
Someone around here who thinks he's the only true socialist is going to get one hell of a shock when Doctor Fox's "Global Britain" weighs anchor and sets sail.
Alderman Barnes
Vital Squad Member
Also, obviously, our cows are small and the Irish ones are far away.
Alderman Barnes
Vital Squad Member
It's project fear, isn't it? To scare MPs into accepting her shitty deal. I'm pretty sure that enough of the craven buggers will cave in as well.
Also, getting Our Brave Boys out is always a good look for a PM in trouble.
Also, getting Our Brave Boys out is always a good look for a PM in trouble.
Correct! Brexit will only amplify the distance that goods are moved (assuming that the UK negotiates all of those lucrative international trade deals!)
The way to curb this is to internalize the externalities. Have a read of Ronald Coase’s seminal paper that earned him a Nobel Prize.
And actually, the EU is, to some extent, taking steps to internalise the costs of pollution. Emissions trading is one example:
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en
This will help ensure that the cost of pollution is factored in to the cost of goods and services; and therefore efficient allocation of resources.
In summary - the EU is taking some steps to factor in the environmental costs. This can only be achieved with cross country cooperation.
Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
No they won't. The hardline Brexiteers don't want a no-deal but even they will agree to a deferment of Article 50 so they can sue for a Norway or Canada type deal.
For once I disagree Wayne. The far right do want a no deal so they can bring about their nutty "creative chaos" theory when we are stripped of any rights and protection. Back to "pure" capitalism. Redwood was saying on C4 he preferred a "no deal"
However, not to worry, according to the one true socialist, Shotshy, we are on the cusp of a socialist revolution and everything will be fine.
Ps, another load of experts on C4 tonight saying no deal would be a disaster. Pah! They know nothing and are saying these things for no reason. I'll get a better idea of what's going on down the snooker hall tomorrow. They don't like "mozzies" down there and know Brexit is great.
valenciagill
Vital Football Hero
99 days to go chaps
??
??
Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
Quiet you stupid little man and think about you buddies jailed today or the Hungarian PM who is losing it.
Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
By hardline, I meant the likes of the ERG not the far right who don't know what they want except they hate globalisation and George Soros come to think of it.
jokerman
Vital Football Hero
I know Alderman and 58 will tell me the EU is a rule-governed organization which cannot budge and leaving is completely different from staying in and asking that the rules be bent backwards to accommodate me, BUT this is still a bargaining situation in which all sorts of people have an interest in worst-casing every outcome but the one for which they truly wish.
The EU says the agreement cannot be re-opened, all sorts of trouble with the 27 if we try that etc, but they are not strangers to the kind of stuff May is trying to pull -parallel understandings with legal force etc.
I think the costs of leaving to our side (it is our side), have been front-loaded. They're real, but there's all sorts of lumping going on eg JLR's problems pinned on Brexit, or the IRA come back if we leave (so that's why we'd stay in?). The costs to the EU members have been played down -there's more people -all of them, plus the people who don't want to leave here- pumping those costs for all they're worth. And they have the advantage of detailed demonstrables which are real in the day-to-day in a way that the opportunity costs of maintaining them are not. The closer we get in to doomsday, however, the more the balance will shift. The EU haven't had to think hard about the costs yet, and it has been their strategy to say we have all the cards. Closer in and their own people affected will begin to squeak. Don't get me wrong; they still have the stronger position but not so strong as that they can stick to the -impossible-for-us-to-budge line.
This is why May might be on a winner. All she needs is enough from the EU to say that we all want to get rid of the backstop asap (assuming its ever activated) and she may have the votes for her deal.
This will not make happy those who think that leaving the EU is mental because the EU offers us a better chance of social democracy than can be delivered by our own parties. But this is a feeble line of thought -depending on outside help to deliver arrangements that cannot be delivered by ourselves alone is, fundamentally, no good.
This will not make those who think that anything short of a clean break is mental happy either. I'm not sure I care about them, however. They've shown themselves to be intellectually lazy and politically incompetent. They either do not know how to make their case or it's just too much work for them. Look at Boris with all his flair when he has no responsibility and how he shrinks to nothing when it's thrust upon him, and contrast that with May. She's looking tired, they say, and sounding robotic, but she has developed a line for dealing with our divided country and stuck to it, and NO ONE else has. All they offer is -let's suppose everyone really agrees with me.
Membership of the EEC/EC/EU has never sat well with Britain. Scots and Irish nationalists may declaim to the contrary, but they still triangulate from London's discomfort, not their love of Brussels. Some of us have benefitted from the EU and grown attached to it, but only as a result of processes which emphasize how others have been left behind and feel marginalized. It's not the deal we signed on to. It is becoming less and less like the deal we signed on to and -notwithstanding the sense that while London talks about 3000 troops as aid to the civil power is presented as catastrophe, while even Paris burning cannot shake the idea that all is better across the Channel- the EU has its own, very big problems.
Back to May then. Let the EU give her some words. Let's all do the BRINO/BINO. It seems to fit where -as a country as a whole- we are right now. Give it five years. Maybe we'll be ready to crawl over broken glass to find a way back in. Maybe there'll be no "in" to crawl back to. And maybe the deal she's got will work just fine. Vassalage used to be a very respectable status. And those of you who know your history, know that the kings of England were vassals to the French king at precisely the time that we were powerful, they were feeble, and we were telling them which side their bread was buttered.
The EU says the agreement cannot be re-opened, all sorts of trouble with the 27 if we try that etc, but they are not strangers to the kind of stuff May is trying to pull -parallel understandings with legal force etc.
I think the costs of leaving to our side (it is our side), have been front-loaded. They're real, but there's all sorts of lumping going on eg JLR's problems pinned on Brexit, or the IRA come back if we leave (so that's why we'd stay in?). The costs to the EU members have been played down -there's more people -all of them, plus the people who don't want to leave here- pumping those costs for all they're worth. And they have the advantage of detailed demonstrables which are real in the day-to-day in a way that the opportunity costs of maintaining them are not. The closer we get in to doomsday, however, the more the balance will shift. The EU haven't had to think hard about the costs yet, and it has been their strategy to say we have all the cards. Closer in and their own people affected will begin to squeak. Don't get me wrong; they still have the stronger position but not so strong as that they can stick to the -impossible-for-us-to-budge line.
This is why May might be on a winner. All she needs is enough from the EU to say that we all want to get rid of the backstop asap (assuming its ever activated) and she may have the votes for her deal.
This will not make happy those who think that leaving the EU is mental because the EU offers us a better chance of social democracy than can be delivered by our own parties. But this is a feeble line of thought -depending on outside help to deliver arrangements that cannot be delivered by ourselves alone is, fundamentally, no good.
This will not make those who think that anything short of a clean break is mental happy either. I'm not sure I care about them, however. They've shown themselves to be intellectually lazy and politically incompetent. They either do not know how to make their case or it's just too much work for them. Look at Boris with all his flair when he has no responsibility and how he shrinks to nothing when it's thrust upon him, and contrast that with May. She's looking tired, they say, and sounding robotic, but she has developed a line for dealing with our divided country and stuck to it, and NO ONE else has. All they offer is -let's suppose everyone really agrees with me.
Membership of the EEC/EC/EU has never sat well with Britain. Scots and Irish nationalists may declaim to the contrary, but they still triangulate from London's discomfort, not their love of Brussels. Some of us have benefitted from the EU and grown attached to it, but only as a result of processes which emphasize how others have been left behind and feel marginalized. It's not the deal we signed on to. It is becoming less and less like the deal we signed on to and -notwithstanding the sense that while London talks about 3000 troops as aid to the civil power is presented as catastrophe, while even Paris burning cannot shake the idea that all is better across the Channel- the EU has its own, very big problems.
Back to May then. Let the EU give her some words. Let's all do the BRINO/BINO. It seems to fit where -as a country as a whole- we are right now. Give it five years. Maybe we'll be ready to crawl over broken glass to find a way back in. Maybe there'll be no "in" to crawl back to. And maybe the deal she's got will work just fine. Vassalage used to be a very respectable status. And those of you who know your history, know that the kings of England were vassals to the French king at precisely the time that we were powerful, they were feeble, and we were telling them which side their bread was buttered.
Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
However negligible the shift post-Brexit, no EU state exports more than 10% of their exports to the UK; whereas, the UK exports 44% of its total to the EU. Therefore, the application of tariffs will affect the pockets of the poorest in this country very hard; plus, tariffs applied to our exports might make EU states start looking elsewhere and that could affect jobs. It might be temporary but a hole in our economy even for a short time could have a devastating outcome for many.
GillsBluenose
Vital Football Hero
Yawn....
Loads of stuff to add in to that argument. These are just some:
1. Total Monetary Value of imports from EU exceed our exports. You continue ad nauseum to choose to use percentages rather than amounts because you love the EU far more than your own country and want to give them all the bargaining power. We get that.
2. The pound has become weaker which ironically is used as ammunition by the doom merchants but has actually made our exports cheaper so the addition of tariffs will probably only take the price back to what it was before.
3. However, our imports have already become more expensive due to the exchange rate and tariffs will make them more so. More incentive to either start producing those products over here, reducing lorry jams and carbon emissions, or to source them from elsewhere in the world if they are essential.
4. On 5 Live this morning there was a report that bosses are ready to train and retrain UK employees but could find none as we have such a full employment situation. The jobs argument is therefore just not relevant at the moment.
Interesting last post by Jokerman. Very balanced and talks about prospects for the future, which none of us can know for sure. As he says, give it five years. IMO I suspect the EU will just continue to get worse and that the need to leave at the moment is not as vital as it would be if we wait that long.
Last edited:
Therealwaldo
Vital Squad Member
Gillsbluenose, would you be more worried if you lost 10% of your income or if you list 40% of your income. As has been explained time and time again the EU position is just the position of the 27. Each are looking at it from their own perspective and for each individual country the impact of Brexit is less than the impact on the UK. In a test of logic for 8 year olds you’d fail.
We’ve had 2 tears of low value of the pound with very little impact on exports. It only goes to prove that exports have not been held back by the EU. It’s just that our products are not as popular as those of a lot of our competitors and no evidence that will get better after Brexit.
Due to WTO tariffs imports from elsewhere in the world are not going to be cheaper unless we unilaterally ditch all tariffs. Even Minford admitted that would completely finish off our manufacturing.
A high skilled car worker is going to jump at the chance to work as a care assistant at a care home. The problem is the mismatch of skills and people willing to do specific jobs.
In what ways will the EU ‘continue to get worse’. Have you been on the continent lately ? There are problems just as there always are but to say the problems in France are typical of things everywhere would have been like saying the Brixton riots were a sign of the imminent collapse of the UK. In both cases, exaggerated rubbish. Continental Europe is not going to suddenly stop being one of the powerhouses of the civilised world. And we’re just about to put a big divide between us.
We’ve had 2 tears of low value of the pound with very little impact on exports. It only goes to prove that exports have not been held back by the EU. It’s just that our products are not as popular as those of a lot of our competitors and no evidence that will get better after Brexit.
Due to WTO tariffs imports from elsewhere in the world are not going to be cheaper unless we unilaterally ditch all tariffs. Even Minford admitted that would completely finish off our manufacturing.
A high skilled car worker is going to jump at the chance to work as a care assistant at a care home. The problem is the mismatch of skills and people willing to do specific jobs.
In what ways will the EU ‘continue to get worse’. Have you been on the continent lately ? There are problems just as there always are but to say the problems in France are typical of things everywhere would have been like saying the Brixton riots were a sign of the imminent collapse of the UK. In both cases, exaggerated rubbish. Continental Europe is not going to suddenly stop being one of the powerhouses of the civilised world. And we’re just about to put a big divide between us.
Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
It's not the absolute figures but the potential effect that a sea change [application of tariffs and all the accompanying admin] in our day to day business will have.
That would be great if we exported more to the EU than we import
That's all fine and dandy but you certainly can't start producing here if the infrastructure is not in place. The EU is almost the perfect model for demonstrating Adam Smith's principles on international trade, ie there are things we don't make here any more because other countries do it more economically and vice versa. So, it's simply not a case of saying we'll do it ourselves; it will take time to invest in plant, get and train workers and then find the product is prohibitively expensive, eg if Mercedes only made cars for the German market each model would cost as much as a Rolls Royce but with a market that stretches across the EU [and beyond] then the cost of production reduces and the company benefits from economies of scale. So, simply saying we'll produce our own stuff is largely just words.
You've just contradicted yourself in effect. So, we start producing goods here and train staff but they aren't there [full employment]. There's a hole in my bucket dear Liza...........
Give it five years and let's watch those at the margins, who find it hard to make ends meet now, suffer further hardship while things settle down. Rees Mogg said it could take 20/30 years for things to fall into place.
valenciagill
Vital Football Hero
We will have a new populist leaning govt after brexit. Leaving the EU is only the beginning of a political revolution.
Wayne.Kerr
Vital Champions League
Like Hungary?
