I get your want protection but just be patient...you've also misread the data, that's per million so multiply your figure by 60 or so.
The biggest factor outside of death (which you dismiss as neither here nor there) is simplicity and effectiveness. This plan ticks both boxes and given this government that is a wise strategy.
Also once you start prioritising one group over another on anything but death it becomes subjective.
Why should a 25 year old middle class white woman be vaccinated before a 49 year old BAME who is unemployed? The death rates are night and day in comparison.
Like I said, Mrs Pope is done so my personal interest in any kind of speed is over. I am literally debating this, that's all. Its not really about protection for me; if I was likely to get it, I should have had it by now (no, I'm not claiming immunity, but I have already got through October/November/December when Nottingham had awful transmission rates).
I have said repeatedly how easy it would be logistically to add on all three groups I'm talking about. The bulk of the information gathering can literally be done by schools/ police and you literally get employers to send the link. Doing so does not delay anything, other than possibly my age group.
Currently the NHS is responsible for identifying people via GPs. They then get sent a link to a swiftqueue booking. The swiftqueue doesn't even require an NHS number to book; if I wanted to use my wife's link I could book on in theory. The volunteers at the centre will check you have a booking but I am not aware of them doing any checking that you should have made the booking in the first place- we already have a problem of people sneaking in.
Already the NHS is having to coordinate with the DWP because they have already invited people who are carers and recieve carers allowance. Did that slow things down? Nope. So to say they cannot coordinate similarly with headteachers via the DFE, or via the police Federation is, quite simply, bullshit. Both of those organisations could do all the work for the NHS. I do believe JCVI are lying to the public when they hide behind "possible delays" as a reason why they have not done this.
As I have said several times, you would be adding no more than 1.5m to the 7m being done in the 40-49 age group (likely to be a lot less than that). The booking system opens appointments based on vaccine availability and capacity to vaccinate; there was literally no problem in adding these keyworkers.
At worst this would delay my age group starting by a few days, extend the 40-49 vaccination period by a few days. To reiterate; the organisation of teachers and police is such that there is absolutely no reason why organising their vaccination should delay anything.
Now, if you wanted to do supermarket workers, taxi drivers, delivery drivers etc then that
would be a nightmare logistically; there are no equivalent central records nor organisations to put them forward and organise candidates. Doing so would significantly delay the vaccine rollout.
My belief is that police and teachers have been overlooked, not because of potential delays (that simply isn't true) but because JCVI is either concerned over unfairness in targeting some keyworkers and not others or is afraid of backlash over perceived unfairness by those workers. That will be the root of their decision.
The consequences of that are obvious; we are going to have a police force that is stretched as the country begins to reopen, and we are going to have teachers absent through illness or self isolation, and possibly instances of year groups having to rotate where several teachers are self isolating at the same time. JCVI have made the choice that this is preferable to the alternative.
Well, that's the decision. All we can do is debate it now and ultimately get on with it.
As for your comparison, a 25 year old teacher should be at considerably higher risk than a 49 year old BAME unemployed person. We have no evidence that BAME are genetically more vulnerable (to my knowledge) and your unemployed BAME has no workplace in which to put themselves in danger. Unless they behave unwisely, there is no reason why they should contract it, yet your 25 year old teacher (her class gives her no genetic advantage) is in far more danger of contracting it. You have to buy a ticket to die of COVID.