Match Thread: Lincoln City v Swindon Town | Page 37 | Vital Football

Match Thread: Lincoln City v Swindon Town

This is across the board in football this season. Liverpool have lost four on the bounce at home for the first time in nearly 100 years. Home advantage just isn't there without supporters. We have taken advantage of that situation with the 10 away wins.

I expect there will be some stats produced come the end of the season that will show this in every division

Maybe not as much as you'd think.

There are more away wins, it equates to about 30 extra wins in total over the whole season, and almost entirely at the expense of draws. The number of home wins is pretty much the same.

If you take the average in the previous two fully completed L1 seasons (2017/18 and 2018/19) then 41% were home wins, 32% away wins, 27% draws.

This season to date it's 40% home wins, 37% away wins, 23% draws.
 
I think the recent downturn in performance, but not quite results, is pretty much due to the injury of Bridcutt. The role he plays is crucial to our success for a number of reasons. As has been mentioned many times, it really frees up Grant to do his thing, and be the creative player he is, the same is true for players such as Johnson and Rogers.

Also, but not as frequently discussed, it allows the two central defenders to concentrate on their defensive responsibilities more. We have seen recently that opposition look dangerous when they have space to run at us through the middle, and a couple of wonder goals have resulted that simply would not have occurred if Bridcutt was playing. If Walsh/Jackson/Montsma are less concerned about being pulled out of position to close down an incoming midfielder they are more focused on picking up their man, intercepting crosses, blocking shots etc. This confidence also trickles to the goalkeeper and full backs as well.

So the obvious solution is to get Sanders up to speed pronto and work with him on the duties of this crucial role. Maybe bring Bridcutt in and give him some exposure to a post-playing career coaching role. I don't think McGrandles or Jones is this type of player. They seem more suited to roaming and attacking from midfield than focusing exclusively on the position just in front of the back four. So, if Sanders can do this, and do it well, then we will be fine. Without that position covered it's going to be harder.
 
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Anyone else think we played a 4-2-3-1 formation last night? Grant and McGrandles looked to be holding back behind Johnson, Rogers and Scully, with Hopper up top.
 
This is across the board in football this season. Liverpool have lost four on the bounce at home for the first time in nearly 100 years. Home advantage just isn't there without supporters. We have taken advantage of that situation with the 10 away wins.

I expect there will be some stats produced come the end of the season that will show this in every division
I think our home crowd atmosphere has been fantastic, and lack of it I am sure has had an impact. The away games I have been to over the past few years the home support is generally rubbish and negatively often get on their players backs. If we still cheer our lot on when getting whacked 6-0 by Oxford I do think the lack of supporters effects us.
UTI.
 
Thought Appleton got his post match comments spot on.

After recent successes I think as a fan base we are savvy enough to realise performance is the most important thing and that will get right results over the season. I think there would have been less noise after this game if we had lost but played well. But we just did not seem at it Tuesday as a team.

But then we had the odd poor performance when we had success in national league and league 2. Complacency is a very human and normal reaction when doing well, even more so in a young squad I would argue. I think what we also know as a fan base is what is important now is the reaction, this will tell us a lot. Even if we don’t win Saturday, it will be the performance that is important.
 
Our form and performance has been down for a number of games.
Small squad, injuries, numerous games and some very raw loanees which we rely on for guile and skill up front. Oh and some pretty terrible boggy pitches. I do think the removal of TJ and Edun from two key roles has upset the balance somewhat.
 
I'm not sure whether we can fully blame the schedule for our injuries tbh, there seems to be too many muscle injuries amongst those who haven't played that often - Archibald, Howarth, Anderson hasn't played much recently, now Sanders.
 
I'm not sure whether we can fully blame the schedule for our injuries tbh, there seems to be too many muscle injuries amongst those who haven't played that often - Archibald, Howarth, Anderson hasn't played much recently, now Sanders.
Sanders is injured? I missed that.
 
I'm not sure whether we can fully blame the schedule for our injuries tbh, there seems to be too many muscle injuries amongst those who haven't played that often - Archibald, Howarth, Anderson hasn't played much recently, now Sanders.

I was thinking just this. MA mentioned that the new signings weren't quite at the level of the rest of the squad. I think our training is probably above average intensity which our squad age would tend to allow. I'm sure it's all been throttled back given the fixtures but a lot of injuries do seem to be happening in training.
 
Maybe not as much as you'd think.

There are more away wins, it equates to about 30 extra wins in total over the whole season, and almost entirely at the expense of draws. The number of home wins is pretty much the same.

If you take the average in the previous two fully completed L1 seasons (2017/18 and 2018/19) then 41% were home wins, 32% away wins, 27% draws.

This season to date it's 40% home wins, 37% away wins, 23% draws.

Interesting. Might it not be the case that those averages don't reveal the effects of no crowd on home results for particular clubs. So we would need to look at the relationship between recent historic crowd size and % of home wins compared to this season.
Two points though. It's not just about size there's also the level of vociferocity (new word?) , which is pretty hard to quantify. Secondly, the effect is probably greater for well supported clubs below the Premier league , like us.
Liam Scully and Mapp have both said we are being affected more than most.
In some ways it's one of those obvious things which your gut tells you must be the case.
Even taking those stats at face value, surely the rise in away wins from 27% to 37% must in part, be a function of playing in an away stadium with no fans.
 
Interesting. Might it not be the case that those averages don't reveal the effects of no crowd on home results for particular clubs. So we would need to look at the relationship between recent historic crowd size and % of home wins compared to this season.
Two points though. It's not just about size there's also the level of vociferocity (new word?) , which is pretty hard to quantify. Secondly, the effect is probably greater for well supported clubs below the Premier league , like us.
Liam Scully and Mapp have both said we are being affected more than most.
In some ways it's one of those obvious things which your gut tells you must be the case.
Even taking those stats at face value, surely the rise in away wins from 27% to 37% must in part, be a function of playing in an away stadium with no fans.

Its 32% to 37% for away wins @Bucksimp. Which is sizeable but not as much as most were probably expecting. It works out at around 4 points lost at home (on average) because of the swing.

The lack of a crowd is a double edged sword. Although you can say that a good home crowd can spur you on to the take the initiative after, say, an equaliser, or even intimidate an opponent, there was a comment early in the season from one of the whinier manager (maybe it was Oxford) that we wouldn't have been able to play as defensively at home with a crowd in the ground. There is a point in there.

Also, I think we also know that the preferred style of play from the back would have caused a lot of anxiety amongst a section of supporters which could transmit itself to the team.

When I say "anxiety" that's a bit of a euphemism.
 
Interesting. Might it not be the case that those averages don't reveal the effects of no crowd on home results for particular clubs. So we would need to look at the relationship between recent historic crowd size and % of home wins compared to this season.
Two points though. It's not just about size there's also the level of vociferocity (new word?) , which is pretty hard to quantify. Secondly, the effect is probably greater for well supported clubs below the Premier league , like us.
Liam Scully and Mapp have both said we are being affected more than most.
In some ways it's one of those obvious things which your gut tells you must be the case.
Even taking those stats at face value, surely the rise in away wins from 27% to 37% must in part, be a function of playing in an away stadium with no fans.
I think it's vociferousness. I'm sure @Impalex will be able to confirm.
 
The effect of a crowd on average might be 4 or 5% but the whole point is an average gives you the middle of the range.

So if you have 5 thousand rattling around in MK Dons 30 thousand stadium the advantage of the crowd may be nearly 0%

where as a full Sincil Bank may have an effect nearer 10%?
 
The effect of a crowd on average might be 4 or 5% but the whole point is an average gives you the middle of the range.

So if you have 5 thousand rattling around in MK Dons 30 thousand stadium the advantage of the crowd may be nearly 0%

where as a full Sincil Bank may have an effect nearer 10%?

And the 5,000 in the MK stadium will not be sat there cheering and singing or doing anything at all to encourage the players, and not one of them will have grown up with that fake club.
So zero effect from however many random individuals decide to go for a sit down on a plastic seat somewhere near a roundabout for a couple of hours.