Tony Xia Thread | Page 25 | Vital Football

Tony Xia Thread

That ties in with reports of Xia taking out a £2m loan today, but it's still only a sticking plaster.
 
potless scrambling for scraps innit

altho not even the most severe due diligence would have picked up this nugget:
'Part of the cash flow problem is related to the fact that Villa are not currently earning any matchday income in the close season'

'kin ell
 
BBM - that's planning, you never hear 'no summer match day income' outside of L2 in the main, occasionally L1. No different in Prem/Champ but like seaside businesses, you put money away to cover your off season!

That's actually a red herring in reporting, it's the same every year, it's known of, it's not a matter for due dilligence - it's poor running throughout the year.
 
DON’T PANIC!

Of course we don’t know all the facts yet but;
  • we do know some things
  • we have good insight from appropriate experts into similar situations
  • we have a decent insight into the key protagonists
So where does that leave us?
  1. There is a short-term cashflow problem.
  2. There is a 2018/19 FFP problem which needs to be managed.
  3. Given survival, the club needs to prepare for the new season.

The cashflow problem is one for our Chairman to deal with as he and his company are the largest losers should it not be solved quickly. They could lose the chance to hold and improve the club as an asset structure.

The timeframe he needs to achieve is just to agree with HMRC a credible payment plan in the next few days and that will buy him and his company a couple of months in which to act on the next steps. That will already be happening.

Unless there are absolute problems with his China holdings that breathing space should and will be achieved, I expect.

As the analysis contained in the link below indicates, the FFP problem for next season is not insurmountable;

https://7500toholte.sbnation.com/2018/5/30/17407010/aston-villa-financial-fair-play-jack-grealish-james-chester-albert-adomah

All of which points to a couple of weeks or months of feverish activity NOT the imminent death of our club so breathe. There.

Feel better?

So what’s going to go on in that time? Just one thing; Xia will work out whether he can continue or whether he finds a buyer.

I think he’ll decide to continue because the risks are manageable, the costs are possible for him to afford, the upsides of promotion realistically exist and the alternative is too awful to contemplate. He won’t be able to generate a buyer AT ALL in the current circumstances at the level he wants to exit the scene (£150m+) and he won’t be able to generate one at an acceptable level in the time involved (fire-sale buyers will delay, delay, delay at every opportunity when they feel the price is going down).

So he’ll work hard to get short-term finance in place, analyse all opportunities for wage reduction, player sale and asset-loans to restructure the club for the longer term, and finally stabilise the PR situation. Only then will he put a management team in place with a firm financial budget agreed with them. Who that might be we’ll have to wait and see.

But now you know what the next 2 months hold for the club we can all calm down, go on holiday, enjoy the World Cup and return refreshed to get behind the club for the coming campaign.
 
I'm far from an expert but FFP looks at real cash losses, not intelligent accounting for tax purposes and amortisation etc. So good read, but I'm not entirely sure how leading it should be on our issues.

If an owner can't just put in Xmillion to clear FFP debt, I don't see how accountancy trickery would factor in.
 
Platt-itudes said:
i

i've just checked my pockets and i have £2.50 a plectrum and a spare button, are we saved yet?
Click to expand...
Given the 50p, dust and tissue I've found I think Collymore is thinking (maybe too much credit) too small. Double all the figures and we're on our way back to the Intertoto!
 
Where there is a negative I have always tried to look for a positive to counteract it however I'm struggling a bit with this pile of shite.

However, at least this has gone some way to flush out what's going on behind closed doors at Villa Park and had we actually won at Wembley and got promoted then this situation would have most likely reared its ugly head sometime next season when the expenditure on wages etc would have been far worse so maybe better now while the outgoing figures are less?

Either way, Xia hasn't got the money to sustain a UK football club and he needs to put his hand up and admit it and sell to someone who can.
 
One positive is, this will maybe give any new team assembled likely with youngsters more understanding from fans. Expectations will be lowered and hopefully time given to support them. Bruce works well under under financial hardship. (Assuming he is still here.)
 
Silhillvilla said:
You have to look at the players and manager too. Those pathetic limpless defeats to qpr , Bolton & Norwich particularly have cost us so much.
Click to expand...
This is exactly the point - there were just too many absolutely abject performances that have come home to roost big time. They have cost us massively and the gamble has failed. Bruce had to get us promoted this season, that was his remit. It appears that there was no real alternative, no plan B.
 
villasince67 said:
This is exactly the point - there were just too many absolutely abject performances that have come home to roost big time. They have cost us massively and the gamble has failed. Bruce had to get us promoted this season, that was his remit. It appears that there was no real alternative, no plan B.
Click to expand...
For me, with all that Bruce was going through, it's the players who failed him badly when it mattered on too many occasions . All of them need to take a good hard look (they won't of course) as to what the feck happened !? They failed us and themselves
 
So we again come to the point where its either Bruce's defensive nature getting the better of him or the players repeatedly ignoring the managers instructions throughout the season. In either case Bruce doesn't look good I'm afraid. I suspect it's the former seeing as the squad is packed out with either players Bruce has worked with before or players he himself has brought in to the club.
 
AllanJW said:
DON’T PANIC!

Of course we don’t know all the facts yet but;
  • we do know some things
  • we have good insight from appropriate experts into similar situations
  • we have a decent insight into the key protagonists
So where does that leave us?
  1. There is a short-term cashflow problem.
  2. There is a 2018/19 FFP problem which needs to be managed.
  3. Given survival, the club needs to prepare for the new season.

The cashflow problem is one for our Chairman to deal with as he and his company are the largest losers should it not be solved quickly. They could lose the chance to hold and improve the club as an asset structure.

The timeframe he needs to achieve is just to agree with HMRC a credible payment plan in the next few days and that will buy him and his company a couple of months in which to act on the next steps. That will already be happening.

Unless there are absolute problems with his China holdings that breathing space should and will be achieved, I expect.

As the analysis contained in the link below indicates, the FFP problem for next season is not insurmountable;

https://7500toholte.sbnation.com/2018/5/30/17407010/aston-villa-financial-fair-play-jack-grealish-james-chester-albert-adomah

All of which points to a couple of weeks or months of feverish activity NOT the imminent death of our club so breathe. There.

Feel better?

So what’s going to go on in that time? Just one thing; Xia will work out whether he can continue or whether he finds a buyer.

I think he’ll decide to continue because the risks are manageable, the costs are possible for him to afford, the upsides of promotion realistically exist and the alternative is too awful to contemplate. He won’t be able to generate a buyer AT ALL in the current circumstances at the level he wants to exit the scene (£150m+) and he won’t be able to generate one at an acceptable level in the time involved (fire-sale buyers will delay, delay, delay at every opportunity when they feel the price is going down).

So he’ll work hard to get short-term finance in place, analyse all opportunities for wage reduction, player sale and asset-loans to restructure the club for the longer term, and finally stabilise the PR situation. Only then will he put a management team in place with a firm financial budget agreed with them. Who that might be we’ll have to wait and see.

But now you know what the next 2 months hold for the club we can all calm down, go on holiday, enjoy the World Cup and return refreshed to get behind the club for the coming campaign.
Click to expand...

I go along with a lot of what you say. A lot of the problems are short term. However:

a) cash-flow. This needs to be sorted on at least a medium term, not just a short-term basis. If we're still losing money then that money has to be found. If we're still losing money we have to start cutting until we don't.

b) FFP. Think this may be less of a problem. The EFL would have agreed an estimate at the end of March at what our financial position would be over this season. They haven't sanctioned us for breaking FFP, so unless there has been a big change in our position we're OK for this season. Next season may be a challenge, but it's one we can prepare for, even if it's painful.

Over the longer term, Xia needs to assess whether he can meet whatever financial demands there are on the club. If he thinks that is difficult, then he has an alternative to a sale; bringing somebody else in as a partner. If he can find that somebody else that may be the best solution.
 
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